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Page B52From§Each · the Justice & Legal book4 November to 5 November 2026

Justice & Legal

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THE AUTOPSY

Republicans redraw Texas and Missouri maps to survive 2026, voters and districts vote no.

Here lies a strategy, born in the Texas and Missouri legislatures sometime in 2025, dead at the count on Tuesday.

Missouri's trouble started in court, not on Election Day. The legislature drew a congressional map in 2022, then drew a second one in 2025 reaching for the same result, and on September 25 the U.S. Supreme Court's own conservative majority let a lower ruling against that second map stand — the third time the courts had struck the map down. Lawmakers then asked voters directly: Proposition A would have authorized the legislature to pass yet another set of congressional lines. Voters rejected it Tuesday — the fourth time the map project had been turned back, three times by courts and now once by the people asked to bless it themselves.

Texas took the other road to the same grave. Lawmakers redrew districts over the summer specifically to protect Republican seats ahead of the midterms, a redraw that by late October had forced incumbents in both parties to retool their campaigns district by district. On October 16 the president was already complaining that fellow Republicans were "hurting Texas," a line aimed at the Senate race but a fair description of what the House maps were about to do to him.

On Tuesday the districts answered. Johnny Garcia won the 35th, a seat drawn specifically to flip against him. Leticia Gutierrez won the 9th, redrawn last year to favor the oil-and-gas executive she beat by fourteen points instead. The map built to protect those two seats is the reason both of them are gone.

A map drawn to win an election has, this week, lost twice over: one version thrown out by courts three times and then by voters a fourth, the other redrawn specifically to save seats that the same redrawing handed to the other party. Call it penny-ante stuff, the kind of plan that works right up until the people it was drawn around show up and vote.

Preceded in death by: the 2022 Missouri map, left standing while its replacement failed three times in court and once at the ballot.

In lieu of flowers, the next legislature that redraws a map to save itself should count the room before it moves the furniture.

The receipts (8)

Susan Collins declares independence from Trump four weeks before Maine declares it from her.

Susan Collins' Senate seat died Tuesday, three decades old, after a long battle with timing.

It is survived by a line delivered in a Tuesday debate on October 7. Troy Jackson, the Democrat who would go on to unseat her, told Collins she was "like an arsonist who helped set the fire, and then she wants credit for bringing a cup of water to put it out" — this about the $50 billion relief fund she had touted for a healthcare crisis Jackson said she'd paved the way for. The line survives her. It will be read aloud at debates she is no longer invited to.

Between those two facts sat a third. On September 22, ProPublica published a story Common Dreams described as uncovering a "sprawling pay-to-play operation" centered on Collins; Jackson responded by saying she "delivered millions in taxpayer dollars for a corrupt donor bankrolling her campaign" and called it "corruption of the highest order." Three weeks after that, on October 14, Jackson stood in Biddeford and noted that Collins had voted to funnel tens of millions of dollars to ICE a little over a month before one of its officers killed 25-year-old Johan Sebastián Durán Guerrero on that town's streets. "Senator Collins paid for the bullets at President Donald Trump's command," Jackson said. "Now she wants credit for not pulling the trigger."

By Tuesday the malarkey had run out of road: five terms, one debate, one shooting, one relief fund that arrived after the fire, and one distance from the president that landed 28 days before the votes were counted and not a day sooner. Troy Jackson, 58, is Maine's senator-elect. Susan Collins is survived by the sentence her opponent built for her, which outlasted the career it described.

In lieu of flowers, read the ProPublica story before the next senator cites a number the record can't source.

The receipts (7)

The clause Justice drafted only for a Republican's narrow loss now describes Tuesday's results exactly.

The clause died of relevance this week, or started living, depending on how a count goes.

It was born of language lawyers write to cover an outcome they do not expect to need: a Justice Department lawsuit that would move to block Alaska's certification only if Sen. Dan Sullivan, the Republican, came up short by a narrow margin. The order to file it came from the president on 23 October. The filing itself followed, undated in the record that reaches this desk, written for a margin not yet drawn.

The week around it filled in fast. On 27 October the Senate was already bracing for a floor fight over whether to seat Mary Peltola, the Democrat, should she win. On 29 October Alaska's governor, Mike Dunleavy, ordered his state police to investigate her campaign over a second candidate also named Dan Sullivan, a Democratic recruit Republicans called a decoy. The next day Peltola said she knew nothing about it, and The Hill asked whether Senate Majority Leader John Thune would seat her anyway. By 1 November, Sen. Tim Scott, asked point-blank whether he would accept the results if Peltola won, declined to say.

The investigations the decoy produced — four of them, into the second Sullivan filing — closed on zero charges. The department sent target letters and subpoenas to Marc Elias and other Democrats anyway. Sullivan's own campaign opened a recount fund, regardless of what the count would say. That is a lot of apparatus for a clause everyone treated as a formality — a trapdoor built, tested, and left shut.

Wednesday morning it stopped being shut. Peltola took a lead of roughly 500 votes. CBS called the race unresolved, with a weeks-long count ahead. The clause written for exactly this — a narrow Republican loss — has never been tested before. It is about to be.

Born in a filing dated to an order, not to itself. Survived by a governor's investigation, a Senate seating fight, a senator's dodge, and a recount fund that did not wait for a reason. Preceded in death by four federal probes that found nothing and kept subpoenaing anyway — plain hogwash, dressed as diligence.

In lieu of flowers, Alaska asks only that the count finish before the lawsuit does.

The receipts (5)

Texas and Missouri redraw maps to dodge voters, voters redraw them back; Georgia's governor takes the hint.

Here lies a strategy, born in the Texas and Missouri legislatures sometime in 2025, dead at the count on Tuesday.

Missouri's trouble started in court, not at the ballot box. The legislature drew a congressional map in 2022, then drew a second one in 2025 reaching for the same result, and on September 25 the U.S. Supreme Court's own conservative majority let a lower ruling against that second map stand — the third time the courts had struck it down. Lawmakers then asked voters directly: Proposition A would have let the legislature pass yet another set of lines. Voters said no Tuesday, the fourth rejection, the first one by ballot instead of bench.

Texas tried the quieter version — new lines meant to hold seats the party already had. One of those seats held the opposite answer. Voters sent a Democrat to the 9th district, the one redrawn specifically to keep it Republican. By October 5 the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee had already added six more races to its target list under the new maps, and by October 26 the Washington Examiner was running down the candidates now running in districts that did not exist that way a year earlier. The maps had been drawn to shrink the battlefield. They enlarged it. By October 16 the president himself was attacking fellow Republicans over the fight.

One day later, in Georgia, the strategy's presumed heir got the message. Governor Brian Kemp (R-GA) had the tool on his desk — a special session, the same instrument Texas and Missouri had used — and the occasion: Keisha Lance Bottoms (D-GA) had just won the governor's mansion Tuesday, a result Democrats themselves had doubted. As recently as October 31, party polling showed them far more confident in Senator Jon Ossoff's eight-point lead over Rep. Mike Collins than in Bottoms replicating it statewide. She won anyway. Kemp is not a man allergic to using emergency power when it suits him — he suspended the state's fuel tax in March and again in May, over the objections of nobody in particular — and he is not a man allergic to reversing himself for the party, having campaigned against Collins in the primary before endorsing him in September. On redistricting, on this one, he simply declined. He said he would respect the results.

A strategy survives exactly as long as the next official willing to try it again. Kemp looked at the body on the table — a legislature's map struck down three times, a ballot measure rejected a fourth, a protected seat lost to the voter it was drawn against — and did not reach for the scalpel.

In lieu of flowers, the next governor tempted by this procedure might ask Missouri's legislature how the fourth try went.

The receipts (4)

GOP's mid-decade maps backfire into a dummymander, leaving Democrats holding the pen.

Here lies a strategy that Texas and Missouri Republicans built in 2025 to survive 2026, and that the ballots and the bench spent the fall taking apart one piece at a time. Missouri's second map went down for the third time at the courts on September 25, when the Supreme Court's own conservative majority let a lower ruling against it stand. Lawmakers then asked voters directly with Proposition A; voters said no Tuesday, the fourth rejection and the first by ballot instead of bench. Texas took the quieter route, and its map died the same day, buried by the very district it had been drawn to protect.

Two days later Brian Kemp looked at all of it and declined the invitation to try the same play in Georgia. He had already spent September fielding diesel-tax pressure from Keisha Lance Bottoms, the Democratic Senate contender trailing Jon Ossoff — not from Mike Collins, the Republican he endorsed for the seat himself. A governor with that much on his plate did not need a fifth rejection with his name on it.

Thursday put the question on the wire that the architects of the whole project have no tally for yet: how many of the maps they drew to hold the House will net them fewer seats than the lines they replaced. CBS News asked it outright — whether the mid-decade redistricting push had turned into a dummymander, a map so aggressively drawn for one side that a modest swing flips it to the other. The same morning, the Washington Examiner counted the other side of the ledger: Democrats came out of Tuesday with at least five new trifectas, full control of the governor's mansion and both chambers, in states where they did not have it before. Nothing stops them from picking up the same pen before 2028. The Examiner's own morgue, ten days earlier, had already logged incumbents of both parties adjusting campaigns to maps drawn by legislatures, approved by voters, or imposed by courts — proof the tool outlives whichever party last held it.

The strategy is survived by the Texas district it was drawn to protect, which it did not. It is preceded in death by the Georgia governor who watched it fail and took the hint. In lieu of flowers, the next legislature holding the pen — of either party — might run the map past a judge before the ballot, not after.

The receipts (3)

Hong Kong upgrades activist's prison sentence for the third time since 2017, now ten years.

Hong Kong's democracy movement received its third sentence since 2017 on Wednesday, the longest yet: ten years for Joshua Wong, its most recognizable face, convicted of conspiracy to collude with foreign forces to endanger national security. He pleaded guilty this year to a charge filed last year. NPR calls it his second conviction under the Beijing-imposed national security law, which means Wednesday was not even the beginning of the arithmetic.

It was born in August 2017, before that law existed. A Hong Kong court gave Wong, Alex Chow, and Nathan Law between six and eight months apiece for their role in the Umbrella Movement, and barred all three from holding office until 2022. Some ordinary law already on the books did that work; the national security statute Beijing would write was still three years off.

It was preceded in death by a promise. In 2020, Hong Kong's executive said in public that the new national security law would not touch judicial independence; activists, Wong among them, called it a law meant to silence Hongkongers. Within the year the promise was tested: that December, Wong was sentenced to thirteen and a half months for inciting an illegal assembly — not yet, on this record, a national-security charge, but heavier than 2017's. Agnes Chow and Ivan Lam went down with him that December, ten months and seven: survived by, each time, a longer list.

By September of this year the schedule had picked up its pace. Three organizers of Hong Kong's Tiananmen Square vigils were sentenced under the national security law, the same one now put to Wong. Two months later, Wednesday, came his ten years, the number NPR calls his second trip under that statute. That is not malarkey. That is the arithmetic the wire already filed.

Six to eight months. Thirteen and a half months. Ten years. A count like that does not need an adjective sitting in front of it. It needs only to be read in the order it happened.

There is a word for a government that keeps the same defendant's file open for nine years and calls each heavier number justice, and the word is not justice, it is shit, set down flatly, next to the plainer fact that Hong Kong's courts have had nine years now to find a ceiling on this and have not found one.

In lieu of flowers: ask Hong Kong's courts, in public, what the number will be the fourth time.

The receipts (7)

Justice Department's clause for a narrow Republican loss meets a narrow Republican loss, exactly as drafted.

The clause was built for a specific defeat, and on Wednesday the defeat it was built for stopped being hypothetical and started being math. The lawsuit filed to shadow those probes was written to block Alaska's certification under one condition only: Sen. Dan Sullivan, the Republican, losing by a narrow margin. On 27 October, before a single vote was counted, the Senate was already bracing for a floor fight over whether to seat Peltola if she won. The order to file the suit had come from the president four days earlier, on 23 October, for a margin the count had not yet produced; this week it did.

Then came the drawing. By 30 October the papers were treating the controversy and the Senate's majority as the same story, because by then they were. On 1 November Senator Tim Scott, asked point-blank whether he would accept the result if Peltola won, dodged the question entirely — not a denial, not a yes, just the empty space where an answer to a hypothetical should go until the hypothetical stops being one.

It stopped being one this week. CBS News reports the race is still undecided, Peltola and Sullivan separated by a slim margin, the count running into a second day with Peltola ahead by roughly 500 votes and the lead holding. The lawsuit drafted to apply only to that exact outcome has not been withdrawn. A lawsuit is not a prediction. It is a plan, and the plan is running — bunk with a filing date, same as it was in October.

What dies here is not a case — the case is very much alive — but the fiction that it was ever about a decoy candidate or a split vote or anything on a ballot at all. It was about a number. The number came in. In lieu of flowers, Alaska's division of elections should finish the count, certify the winner, and let the Justice Department explain in open court, under oath, what margin would have made the lawsuit go away.

The receipts (3)

Trump demands decoy's 3,600 votes be reassigned, not recounted, to the real Dan Sullivan

The recount died this week in Alaska, of a cause that turns out to be the president.

Born every time a margin fell close enough to need checking, the recount's whole job was arithmetic: take the ballots, count them again, let the number decide. It has now been replaced by a request.

The replacement began on paper. On 23 October, before a single Alaska vote had been counted, the Justice Department filed a lawsuit at the president's direction to block the state's certification under one condition only: Senator Dan Sullivan, the Republican, losing narrowly to Democrat Mary Peltola. A judge dismissed that suit on 1 November; the administration said it would appeal. The clause survived dismissal anyway, sitting in the record the way a will sits in a drawer, waiting on a death that had not been confirmed.

The death arrived with help. For months Republicans had accused the Peltola campaign of recruiting a second candidate named Dan Sullivan to split the Republican vote, and officials called it ballot-stacking and demanded an investigation. A Washington Examiner poll out Sunday found that voters deciding late in seven key Senate races favored Republicans by nine points even where Democrats led overall — a fact that, whatever else it explains, does not explain Alaska, where the deciding was never going to be redone by late voters.

On Thursday it stopped needing explaining. "Decoy Dan" Sullivan's vote total was confirmed at 3,600 — more than five times the 642 votes separating the real Sullivan from Peltola, enough on its own to have swung the race. The president did not ask that those votes be recounted. He asked, in a Thursday-morning post, that the totals for "Fake Dan Sullivan" and the other "slug" be given directly to "the REAL Dan Sullivan," declaring the election "over" and the senator the easy winner. Not challenged. Not recounted. Reassigned, by request, from the Oval Office.

The decoy's name was always going to be a footnote in this. What the president is asking is not; it is shit, plainly, beside the gentler fact that it is also exactly what the clause was drafted eleven days early to allow.

The recount is survived by the certification, due any day, and preceded in death by the lawsuit filed for it before the votes it concerned had even been cast.

In lieu of flowers, count the ballots the way they were cast, and seat whoever that count elects.

The receipts (5)

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