Page A10From§Eachthe breakfast edition — 26 September 2026
As it ran on the front
The Cook Political Report does one job: it counts. It doesn't spin, doesn't stump, doesn't attend fundraisers. It looks at polling and money and candidate quality and moves a needle from "likely" to "lean" to "toss-up," and this month the needle has moved almost entirely in one direction.
On September 15th it moved the other way, for the last time all month: New Hampshire's Senate race went to toss-up, a rare good week for Republicans. Two days later, September 17th, Alaska's governor's race went to toss-up too, and the direction reversed for good. On the 20th, the Washington Examiner reported what the numbers already suggested, describing Republicans in Congress beginning to "search for daylight" from the President over Iran and immigration. The next day, Cook made Kansas and South Carolina official — two Senate seats moved toward Democrats, Kansas downgraded from "likely Republican" to merely "lean," in a state Democrats haven't managed to elect a senator from in 94 years. Then Cook moved fifteen House races the same direction. Four shifts this month; three of them away from Republicans.…
…(cont) On September 25th, conservative commentary caught up to the arithmetic, conceding in print that the party had no positive message left to run on. By today the rest of the map had caught up too. Reuters/Ipsos found Trump's approval down another three points from the week before, an all-time low for his second term — the poll floor, until next week finds a lower one. The Hill reported lawmakers and candidates in Iowa, Michigan, and Ohio now openly calling for an end to the Iran war, citing gas and diesel prices that wouldn't quit. In Kansas, ICE raids piled onto the same Senate race Cook had flagged three days earlier, Republicans reportedly "bleeding support" in a seat they'd held by roughly eleven comfortable points as recently as 2020. The New York Times caught Trump extolling the strength of the economy on a global stage the same week its own reporters were writing about rising gas prices and rising mortgage rates — the same 30-year rate that had hit a 14-month high, 6.76 percent, back on September 10th. And the Washington Examiner, surveying all of it, filed the party's answer: the midterms, it announced, were no longer Republicans against Democrats but "common sense v. chaos." No policy in it. No floor under the polls, either.
“Four moves on that needle this month and three of them point the same way — that's not noise, that's a trend with your gas receipt stapled to it. When the mortgage rate hits a fourteen-month high and the guy's overseas bragging about the economy's strength, I know exactly whose pocket that strength is coming out of, and it ain't his.”
“This was never about the map, it's about vision — common sense versus chaos, that's the real choice on the ballot. Sure, four races moved, mortgage rates are up, gas is up, but the message is strong — did I say four? I mean, look, nobody actually reads Cook anyway.”
Earlier in this story
The receipts
Republicans' reconciliation package puts $70 billion into ICE's department NBC News, May 2026
Kansas ICE raids add to GOP headaches in increasingly competitive Senate raceThe Kansas Senate race should be an easy seat for Republicans to hold. Democrats haven’t elected a senator to Kansas in 94 years, and in the last competitive race, in 2020, Sen. Roger Marshall (R-KS) ended up winning by roughly 11 points.
Democrats are running an average of 11.5 points ahead of their 2024 baseline across 2026 special elections MultiState Elections, 2026 special-election tracking
Iowa Senate race shifts to toss-up as Iran war plagues Republican HinsonRep. Ashley Hinson (R-IA) got a dose of bad news Tuesday when a nonpartisan political forecaster reclassified her Senate race as a “toss-up.” Sabato’s Crystal Ball revised the competitiveness of Iowa’s Senate race from “leans Republican”
Democrats are running an average of 11.5 points ahead of their 2024 baseline across 2026 special elections MultiState Elections, 2026 special-election tracking
Republicans search for daylight with Trump as 2026 map grows more competitiveA growing number of congressional Republicans are keeping President Donald Trump at arm’s length, and at times rebuking him directly, as polls suggest a looming November blue wave. From immigration to the Iran war, Republicans are signaling anxiety that the Trump administration’s policies could cost them with voters. The steps are often…
Democrats are running an average of 11.5 points ahead of their 2024 baseline across 2026 special elections MultiState Elections, 2026 special-election tracking
Cook Political Report shifts Kansas, South Carolina Senate races toward DemocratsThe nonpartisan election handicapper Cook Political Report on Wednesday shifted the Senate races in Kansas and South Carolina toward Democrats, with just more than a month before the November midterm elections. Kansas shifted from "likely Republican" to "lean Republican" for Sen. Roger Marshall's (R-Kan.) race to keep his seat against…
A growing number of Republicans in the heartland are breaking with President Trump on policies that are unpopular as the GOP worries about paying the price for them in the upcoming elections. Lawmakers and candidates in Iowa, Michigan and Ohio have called for a quick end to the Iran war amid high gas and diesel...
Democrats are running an average of 11.5 points ahead of their 2024 baseline across 2026 special elections MultiState Elections, 2026 special-election tracking
Midterm elections no longer GOP v. Dems, but common sense v. chaos“Love me or hate me, you still have to vote for me.” That was President Donald Trump‘s patently unorthodox pitch during the 2016 presidential campaign, which got roasted by the usual suspects in legacy media. But Trump was simply reading the room correctly.
As the president extolled the strength of the economy on the global stage, Americans continued to feel the sting of rising prices stemming from the war in Iran.
President Trump’s approval ratings have sunk to new lows in several recent polls, driven by declining GOP support and souring views on the economy in a possible warning sign for Republicans just weeks out from the midterms. In the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll, Trump’s overall approval fell three points from the previous week to an…
· Benchmark mortgage rate hits 14-month high as bond yields keep rising from the morgue, 10 Sep 2026
This page is a back-issue: the story as it ran, receipts as they were. The current edition is at the front. The byline is a pen name for a column drafted by a machine and checked by the editor: how this is made.