Page A4From§Eachthe noon edition — 26 September 2026
On September 18th, the Washington Examiner reported Republican money moving into states Trump carried three times — Kansas, Iowa — the same day Sen. John Kennedy told reporters the party's own red-state Senate races "oughta be fat guy layups." Two days later, the Examiner found congressional Republicans searching for "daylight" from the President on Iran and immigration. On the 21st, an NBC poll found 55 percent of voters saying Trump's policies had worsened the economy, more than double the 26 percent who said the opposite. On the 23rd, the Cook Political Report acted on the numbers, shifting the Senate races in Kansas and South Carolina from "likely Republican" toward the Democrats — Kansas being the seat Kennedy had just flown out to defend.
Today the shift arrived a fourth time this month, and the party's response arrived with it. Trump's approval sank again — the Reuters/Ipsos poll has it down three points from a week ago, an all-time low. In the same news cycle, the Daily Caller reported the party pouring "unprecedented" amounts into red states to save its own candidates there — the second reported wave of red-state money in eight days, following the millions logged on the 18th into the same map. Kansas explains where it's going. ICE raids in the state have Republicans, per the Examiner, bleeding support in a Senate race Roger Marshall won by 11 points in 2020, a state that hasn't elected a Democratic senator in 94 years. Trump is layering his own tour on top of it — a red-state swing next week, in states he carried three times — at the exact moment his own party cannot agree whether those states are even competitive. Heartland Republicans in Iowa, Michigan and Ohio are calling for a fast end to the Iran war as gas and diesel prices climb, breaking with the president in public while his campaign, and his party's money, go to work saving the seats their dissent is supposed to help win. The chaos, on the receipts, is the map the party insists is safe, and is paying, twice in eight days, like it isn't.
“A senator brags the race is a layup, then his own party has to wire in unprecedented money just to keep the shot on the rim — count that as the tell, not the confidence. Each dollar landing in Kansas and Iowa this month is base support walking out over gas prices and a war nobody in Iowa voted for. When the funder keeps having to prove the seat is still yours, somebody already knows it isn't.”
“Look, spending early is just prudent — Republicans are playing to win, not playing scared, and calling Kansas a layup just means we like our odds, not that we're worried. Polls bounce back, ask anybody — did I say bounce back? I mean, historically, sometimes — anyway, the President's swing through these states is a show of strength, not a rescue mission, and if it looks like both at once, that's optics, not strategy.”
Earlier in this story
The receipts
Republicans' reconciliation package puts $70 billion into ICE's department NBC News, May 2026
Kansas ICE raids add to GOP headaches in increasingly competitive Senate raceThe Kansas Senate race should be an easy seat for Republicans to hold. Democrats haven’t elected a senator to Kansas in 94 years, and in the last competitive race, in 2020, Sen. Roger Marshall (R-KS) ended up winning by roughly 11 points.
Democrats are running an average of 11.5 points ahead of their 2024 baseline across 2026 special elections MultiState Elections, 2026 special-election tracking
Cook Political Report shifts Kansas, South Carolina Senate races toward DemocratsThe nonpartisan election handicapper Cook Political Report on Wednesday shifted the Senate races in Kansas and South Carolina toward Democrats, with just more than a month before the November midterm elections. Kansas shifted from "likely Republican" to "lean Republican" for Sen. Roger Marshall's (R-Kan.) race to keep his seat against…
Democrats are running an average of 11.5 points ahead of their 2024 baseline across 2026 special elections MultiState Elections, 2026 special-election tracking
Republicans Pouring Unprecedented Amounts Of Money Into Midterms To Save GOP Candidates In Red StatesSome red states have turned into must-defend states
Democrats are running an average of 11.5 points ahead of their 2024 baseline across 2026 special elections MultiState Elections, 2026 special-election tracking
Midterm elections no longer GOP v. Dems, but common sense v. chaos“Love me or hate me, you still have to vote for me.” That was President Donald Trump‘s patently unorthodox pitch during the 2016 presidential campaign, which got roasted by the usual suspects in legacy media. But Trump was simply reading the room correctly.
Democrats are running an average of 11.5 points ahead of their 2024 baseline across 2026 special elections MultiState Elections, 2026 special-election tracking
Republicans pump millions into states Trump won three timesRepublicans insist they are playing offense before November’s midterm elections, but the party’s biggest spenders are increasingly investing into deep-red states that President Donald Trump has never lost. The Senate map is the best example of this, where recent expenditures in states such as Kansas and Iowa foretell a potentially…
Democrats are running an average of 11.5 points ahead of their 2024 baseline across 2026 special elections MultiState Elections, 2026 special-election tracking
Senate Republican on campaigning in 'close' red state races: 'These oughta be fat guy layups'Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) said Republicans are facing unexpectedly close Senate races in traditionally red states as the party fights to maintain its majority in November. Kennedy told reporters Thursday that he plans to travel to Kansas, Nebraska and Iowa this weekend to campaign and raise money for Republican Senate candidates.
Democrats are running an average of 11.5 points ahead of their 2024 baseline across 2026 special elections MultiState Elections, 2026 special-election tracking
Republicans search for daylight with Trump as 2026 map grows more competitiveA growing number of congressional Republicans are keeping President Donald Trump at arm’s length, and at times rebuking him directly, as polls suggest a looming November blue wave. From immigration to the Iran war, Republicans are signaling anxiety that the Trump administration’s policies could cost them with voters. The steps are often…
President Trump’s approval ratings have sunk to new lows in several recent polls, driven by declining GOP support and souring views on the economy in a possible warning sign for Republicans just weeks out from the midterms. In the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll, Trump’s overall approval fell three points from the previous week to an…
A growing number of Republicans in the heartland are breaking with President Trump on policies that are unpopular as the GOP worries about paying the price for them in the upcoming elections. Lawmakers and candidates in Iowa, Michigan and Ohio have called for a quick end to the Iran war amid high gas and diesel...
NAR puts the median first-time homebuyer at 40 years old - a record - and first-time buyers at a record-low 21% of the market National Association of Realtors, 2025 Profile
Majority of voters say Trump’s policies worsened the economy: PollMost voters believe that President Trump’s policies have weakened the economy, according to a new poll. In the NBC News poll, 55 percent said that economic conditions have been worsened by Trump’s policies, while 26 percent said the opposite. Eighteen percent in the poll said economic conditions haven’t been really affected by the…
Democrats are running an average of 11.5 points ahead of their 2024 baseline across 2026 special elections MultiState Elections, 2026 special-election tracking
Trump takes a red-state swing as GOP split on whether those states are in playA little more than a month before Nov. 3’s midterm elections, President Donald Trump’s time has become more important as he and his aides seek to change souring public opinion of his second administration in crucial swing states and congressional districts. But he’ll spend parts of next week in states he carried three times by […]
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