A new poll shows Democratic Texas Senate candidate James Talarico leading Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) by 5 points over a month before the November midterm elections. The Texas Public Opinion Research (TPOR) poll released Friday showed Talarico with 49 percent support from voters and Paxton with 44 percent support, with 3…
Page F7From§Eachthe coffee break edition — 27 September 2026
$100 million and 7 million eggs later, Paxton is down five points, exactly where he started
As it ran on the front
Start with the baseline, because a ledger needs one. On August 27th, Texas Public Opinion Research had James Talarico at 47 percent against Ken Paxton. Nothing had been spent yet.
On September 5th, Republicans in Washington were, in print, describing their own Senate nominee as a dilemma. Four days later, on September 9th, Paxton — still sitting as Texas's attorney general — announced the statewide distribution of more than 7 million free eggs, proceeds of a legal settlement, headed for Texas food banks, his name on the release. The next day, September 10th, AARP's survey of likely Texas voters had Talarico at 48 and Paxton at 44.…
…(cont) On September 14th the Senate Leadership Fund's Texas affiliate filed for $54 million, wired into the Paxton campaign account. The Telemundo/Mason-Dixon poll on the 15th put the race at three points, Talarico at 46 — the closest it has been, and the closest thing in this file to a return on investment. On the 16th the Texas Farm Bureau endorsed Paxton, after Talarico's remarks about vegan eating drew fallout. By the 24th, Marist had Talarico at 50 and Paxton at 44: a six-point lead, two points wider than it had been before the $54 million landed.
By last weekend the wire had the total for what it is calling the Paxton rescue mission past $100 million, on one Senate seat, in a matter of weeks, with the same money running into battleground states everywhere else at the same time.
Then today's number. Texas Public Opinion Research, the same firm that opened this ledger, has Talarico at 49 and Paxton at 44. Five points, with 3 percent undecided. One month and more than $100 million after that firm's last look at the same race.
So run the two columns against each other, which is all I do here. The spending column went from zero to nine figures in thirty-one days. The polling column went 47, 48, 46, 50, 49 — in a race where the undecided share is three points, that is a flat line with weather on it. The lead on August 27th and the lead today are the same lead.
I am not going to tell you the money did nothing. It moved. It went from donors into a committee, from the committee into an account, and out of the account again, and every one of those transfers was somebody's revenue. What it did not do is appear in the column on the right.
That is the part worth keeping, hon. A hundred million dollars was available for one Senate seat inside of a few weeks. It existed. It was liquid. It was found. Whatever you have been told cannot be afforded, the ceiling is not the problem. The eggs came out of a settlement, the ads came out of a PAC, and the deficit at the end of all of it is five points, same as August.
“A hundred million bucks materialized for one Senate seat in a matter of weeks, plus seven million eggs out of a legal settlement with the candidate's name stamped on the delivery. That money was sitting there the whole time somebody told you the state was broke — it just wasn't for you, it was for the guy who's down five. And after all of it he's down the same five he was down in August, which tells you exactly what they were buying and it wasn't your vote.”
“Polls are snapshots, and this one carries three percent undecided, which is — statistically — the whole ballgame. Did I say five points? I didn't say five points, that doesn't sound like me. Look, the Farm Bureau endorsed him, the eggs went to food banks, that's a record of delivery, and nobody in Washington is panicking, and I don't know why you'd even frame it that way.”
Earlier in this story
- Fetterman won't rule out being the deciding vote for either party, months after starring in their convention ad. By Lou · the sunrise edition, 27 September 2026
- Republicans spend $100 million and 7 million eggs rescuing Paxton, get nothing back in the polls By Ruth · the sunrise edition, 27 September 2026
- Fetterman tapes endorsement for Republicans, refuses to say how he'd break a tied Democratic Senate. By Sal · the midnight edition, 27 September 2026
- Washington Examiner predicts the GOP 'dam' breaks after Election Day; five campaigns already broke before it By Sal · the matinee edition, 23 September 2026
- Fetterman taped a Republican convention video, fundraised off it on ActBlue, now fundraises on GOP donor lists. By Sal · the late evening edition, 21 September 2026
- Fetterman raises money off his Republican convention cameo, then snaps that he's not a Republican By Chip · the early evening edition, 15 September 2026
The receipts
Democrats are running an average of 11.5 points ahead of their 2024 baseline across 2026 special elections MultiState Elections, 2026 special-election tracking
Democrats lead in Texas Senate, gubernatorial race: PollA new poll shows Texas Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico and gubernatorial candidate Gina Hinojosa leading their Republican opponents ahead of the 2026 midterm elections in November. In the Marist Poll, Talarico garnered 50 percent support, while Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) received 44 percent. Four percent of…
· Talarico leads Paxton for Texas Senate while Hinojosa trails Abbott in governor's race: Poll from the morgue, 27 Aug 2026
· Talarico leads Paxton in Texas by 4 points: Poll from the morgue, 10 Sep 2026
· Talarico leads Paxton by 3 points in new Texas Senate poll from the morgue, 15 Sep 2026
This page is a back-issue: the story as it ran, receipts as they were. The current edition is at the front. The byline is a pen name for a column drafted by a machine and checked by the editor: how this is made.