Texas voters at the State Fair of Texas reveal how inflation and economic frustration are shaping the Greg Abbott and Ken Paxton races this fall.
Page F6From§Eachthe matinee edition — 27 September 2026
Republicans spend $100 million and 7 million eggs, then watch Paxton's deficit grow from 3 to 5.
As it ran on the front
Start with the number the receipts actually give, not the one that would be easy to assume. On August 27th, Texas Public Opinion Research put James Talarico at 47 percent against Ken Paxton. The release did not print Paxton's number, so the margin that day does not exist in the record. The same survey had Gina Hinojosa trailing Greg Abbott in the governor's race; how far behind, the release doesn't say either.
On September 9th, Ken Paxton, still sitting as Texas's attorney general, announced the statewide distribution of more than 7 million eggs, proceeds of a legal settlement, to Texas food banks, his name on the release. The next poll, September 10th from AARP, had Talarico ahead by 4 points. On September 14th, the Senate Leadership Fund's Texas affiliate filed for $54 million in the race. The poll that followed, September 15th, from Telemundo and Mason-Dixon, had Talarico ahead by 3 points — the tightest number this ledger has on file.…
…(cont) Then more money moved. The newest poll, fielded September 19th through 22nd by the same Texas Public Opinion Research shop that opened this ledger in August, and released today, has Talarico at 49 percent, Paxton at 44. Five points. Not the 3-point margin of September 15th. Wider, by two points, than the tightest the spending ever bought.
That is the reconciliation: the $100 million and the eggs sit in the debit column against a race that tightened, then widened again, leaving Paxton further behind than the best showing the money ever produced.
The same morning, Democratic strategist Paul Begala pointed at a different line item. He read Greg Abbott's own reelection numbers against Gina Hinojosa as tight enough to call the whole state a Republican "wipeout" in November. The receipts on hand carry Begala's claim, not Abbott's actual number. They do carry, from voters at the State Fair of Texas the same week, on-the-record frustration over inflation, cited as the thing shaping both the Abbott and the Paxton races this fall.
The Senate race goes on the ballot in November. Whatever the $100 million bought between September 14th and today, it wasn't three points. It was five — the wrong direction for the spenders.
“A hundred million dollars and seven million eggs, and Paxton comes out further behind than when this started — that money didn't vanish, it landed in some consultant's account in Austin. Follow the eggs and follow the check; it's the same hand moving both.”
“A hundred million dollars buys name recognition, not overnight miracles — you judge a campaign on Election Day, not one poll's 3.6 percent margin of error. Sure, the gap widened after the spending, but polling volatility cuts both ways — did I just say the margin of error only counts when it helps us? Forget I said that.”
Earlier in this story
- Party that kept Jesus out of its ads for decades now runs pastors asking whether he was woke By Sal · the coffee break edition, 27 September 2026
- $100 million and 7 million eggs later, Paxton is down five points, exactly where he started By Ruth · the coffee break edition, 27 September 2026
- Fetterman won't rule out being the deciding vote for either party, months after starring in their convention ad. By Lou · the sunrise edition, 27 September 2026
- Republicans spend $100 million and 7 million eggs rescuing Paxton, get nothing back in the polls By Ruth · the sunrise edition, 27 September 2026
- Fetterman tapes endorsement for Republicans, refuses to say how he'd break a tied Democratic Senate. By Sal · the midnight edition, 27 September 2026
- Washington Examiner predicts the GOP 'dam' breaks after Election Day; five campaigns already broke before it By Sal · the matinee edition, 23 September 2026
The receipts
Democrat James Talarico leads Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton by 5 points in a new Texas Senate race poll. The poll from Texas Public Opinion Research, surveying 1,007 likely Texas voters from Sept. 19 to 22, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6%, had Talarico at 49%, Paxton at 44%, Libertarian Ted […]
Democrats are running an average of 11.5 points ahead of their 2024 baseline across 2026 special elections MultiState Elections, 2026 special-election tracking
One normally quiet Texas race shows 2026 will be a ‘wipe out’ for Republicans, Dem stategist claimsA Democratic strategist is predicting a Republican “wipeout” in the 2026 midterms — and pointing to Texas Gov. Greg Abbott’s surprisingly tight Texas reelection race as proof.
A new poll shows Democratic Texas Senate candidate James Talarico leading Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) by 5 points over a month before the November midterm elections. The Texas Public Opinion Research (TPOR) poll released Friday showed Talarico with 49 percent support from voters and Paxton with 44 percent support, with 3…
· Talarico leads Paxton for Texas Senate while Hinojosa trails Abbott in governor's race: Poll from the morgue, 27 Aug 2026
· Talarico leads Paxton by 3 points in new Texas Senate poll from the morgue, 15 Sep 2026
This page is a back-issue: the story as it ran, receipts as they were. The current edition is at the front. The byline is a pen name for a column drafted by a machine and checked by the editor: how this is made.