Moderate Democrats appear to have shown an aversion to stumping with Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) as the midterm homestretch kicks into gear, raising questions about the Bronx and Queens rep's clout beyond the lefty base.
Page A4From§Eachthe late evening edition — 28 September 2026
Democrats shift 15 House races into their column, then leave the Bronx off the trail.
As it ran on the front
Cook Political Report moved two Senate races toward the Democrats on September 23. Kansas went from "likely Republican" to "lean Republican" for Senator Roger Marshall's seat against Democrat Adam Hamilton. South Carolina shifted the same direction the same day. The next day, New York Times and Siena polling still had Democrats ahead in Michigan and New Hampshire — Abdul El-Sayed leading Mike Rogers 49 to 44 for Michigan's open Senate seat. By September 25, Cook went further: Democrats are now favored in 208 House races to Republicans' 205, a projected majority sitting on a margin of three.
Three races is not much room. It is also not new room. In August, before any of these ratings moved, Minnesota Democrats nominated Peggy Flanagan over moderate incumbent Angie Craig for Senate — Flanagan won decisively. Two states, two answers to the same question, one summer: the base will pick a progressive when the ballot lets it, and the party apparatus closes the gap when it can.…
…(cont) Now it is September 28 — five days after Kansas moved, three days after Cook called the House — and the New York Post reports that moderate Democrats in tough races appear to have shown an aversion to stumping with Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. No campaign on record says she costs votes. The quote on record is "It's about winning," the sentence a strategist reaches for when the actual reason won't survive a follow-up question.
Follow the dates in order. The polling turns toward Democrats. The handicapper calls a House majority. And the candidates riding that shift decline to share a stage with the New York representative who has spent a decade building the coalition the polling now credits to the party. The energy shows up in the crosstabs. It does not show up on the trail.
Kansas does not know who Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is when a Senate race leans one click less Republican. The people scheduling the bus tour know exactly who she is. They have made their call — take the shift, skip the surrogate — and they made it in writing, one wire date at a time, for anyone still counting.
“They'll ride the coalition Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez spent a decade building and bank the polling shift, then skip her name on the schedule the same week Cook calls the House for their side. Watch who's standing at the microphone in January when the majority actually shows up.”
“Look, nobody's freezing anybody out — these campaigns just have a packed schedule, that's all, and if a candidate wants to run on local issues instead of a national name, that's smart targeting, not a — well, it's not like the party's running from its own base, that's not — did I say running? Strike that, it's about winning.”
The receipts
· Cook Political Report projects Democrats will take control of the House as races shift from the morgue, 25 Sep 2026
· Democrats leading in Michigan, New Hampshire Senate races: Survey from the morgue, 24 Sep 2026
· Cook Political Report shifts Kansas, South Carolina Senate races toward Democrats from the morgue, 23 Sep 2026
· Progressives see a win and a loss in Minnesota and Wisconsin Democratic primaries from the morgue, 12 Aug 2026
This page is a back-issue: the story as it ran, receipts as they were. The current edition is at the front. The byline is a pen name for a column drafted by a machine and checked by the editor: how this is made.