Page A2From§Eachthe wee small hours edition — 2 October 2026
As it ran on the front
A party's own former governor crossing the aisle on a sure thing is not a thing that happens; it happened anyway.
Two days later, on September 18, Emerson College found Adam Hamilton two points ahead of Sen. Roger Marshall in a state that hasn't sent a Democrat to the Senate in 94 years. The same day, Sen. John Kennedy of Louisiana, in Washington to defend the map, told reporters the races in Kansas, Nebraska and Iowa "oughta be fat guy layups" — present tense, oughta, the verb doing the work of admitting they weren't — then booked a flight to go campaign in all three himself.…
…(cont) The forecasters followed the poll, not the senator. On September 22, Sabato's Crystal Ball moved Kansas and two other Senate seats toward the Democrats, citing a "persistently poor national environment" for the party holding the map. On September 23, the Cook Political Report moved Kansas from "likely Republican" to "lean Republican," the second downgrade in five days for a seat Marshall won by eleven points six years ago. On September 26, ICE raids across Kansas layered onto rising fuel prices, giving the race a third headwind the handicappers hadn't needed to invent.
By October 1, Fox News was calling the race "an unexpected headache" and reporting that Vice President JD Vance had flown in to rally for Marshall in person. Kennedy called it a layup two weeks before that flight landed.
On October 2, Vance told NBC News the party faces an "uphill climb" in the midterms — and that the results are a data point he'll weigh in deciding whether to run for president in 2028. He was measuring more than November, on the record, to a national network, the week three independent handicappers filed the same seat under a different word than the one his own party used to describe it fourteen days earlier.
A layup and a climb are both things a fit man can finish. The sentence doesn't say Vance thinks he can finish this one.
“Three election outfits and a former Republican governor took one look at Kansas and ran the other way, and the guy they're propping up still calls it a "climb" instead of what it is, because admitting what it is means admitting the Senate's up for grabs in nine weeks. It's not bad luck, it's a 94-year-red state turning on them over ICE raids and gas prices at the same time, and the sales pitch — layup — expired before Kennedy's plane even landed. You pay for it in January, when the Senate that confirms judges and writes budgets is one seat different than they told you it would be.”
“Look, "uphill climb" is just the Vice President being realistic about a tough national environment, every cycle has one — did I say tough environment? We've been saying layup all month. It's not that the race moved, it's that — no, it clearly moved, Cook moved it, Sabato moved it, that's just what happens when a former governor flips and ICE runs a sweep two weeks before early voting, none of which has anything to do with the candidate, who is fine, who is a layup.”
Earlier in this story
The receipts
Democrats are running an average of 11.5 points ahead of their 2024 baseline across 2026 special elections MultiState Elections, 2026 special-election tracking
Sleeper Senate race emerges as unexpected headache for Republicans ahead of midtermsJD Vance rallied for Roger Marshall as the Kansas Senate race against Adam Hamilton tightens with Election Day political headwinds battering the GOP.
Vice President JD Vance said the GOP faces an “uphill climb” in the midterms — and that the results may be a data point he reviews as he decides his 2028 plans.
Adam Hamilton on faith, Trump and the fight for Kansas lead image
· Poll puts Democrat Adam Hamilton ahead in typically red Kansas from the morgue, 18 Sep 2026
· Former Republican governor backs Democrat over Marshall in Kansas Senate race from the morgue, 16 Sep 2026
· Kansas's former GOP governor backs Democrat over Marshall for Senate from the morgue, 16 Sep 2026
· Donald Trump's Maga cult is finally crumbling from the morgue, 29 Sep 2026
· Senate Republican on campaigning in 'close' red state races: 'These oughta be fat guy layups' from the morgue, 18 Sep 2026
· Sabato's Crystal Ball moves 3 Senate, 4 gubernatorial races in Democrats' favor from the morgue, 22 Sep 2026
· Cook Political Report shifts Kansas, South Carolina Senate races toward Democrats from the morgue, 23 Sep 2026
· Kansas ICE raids add to GOP headaches in increasingly competitive Senate race from the morgue, 26 Sep 2026
This page is a back-issue: the story as it ran, receipts as they were. The current edition is at the front. The byline is a pen name for a column drafted by a machine and checked by the editor: how this is made.