From§Each

Page A4From§Eachthe noon edition — 2 October 2026

GOP senator warns of a 2006-style wipeout the same week the party stops defending North Carolina.

By ChipStaff Writer

“Trump warns Republicans about Texas, Michigan ahead of midterms”, 2 October 2026 (Photo via ABC News — the original report)

As it ran on the front

Everything here is fine. That is the thesis of this column, and I plan to defend it the hard way, receipt by receipt, because the Washington Examiner reported this week that Democrats "appear to be in good shape, but the election is not today," which is true, and which is the kind of sentence a column can be built on if nobody reads past the comma. Fox News adds that the White House has a 32-state rally tour and a "hidden strategy" that pundits are missing. I believe the blitz is the plan.

The calendar disagrees. On September 22nd, Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball moved three Senate races and four governor's races toward Democrats, citing a "persistently poor national environment" for the party. Iowa went from "Leans Republican" to a flat toss-up. Kansas moved too — the item doesn't say to where, so I won't guess on this page, but it moved in the same direction as Iowa, which is away from us. Call that the first correction.…

…(cont) The next day, September 23rd, the Cook Political Report followed, moving Kansas from "likely Republican" to "lean Republican," South Carolina alongside it. "Lean" still has "Republican" in it. I would like that on the record.

Two days later, September 25th, Cook went further and projected Democrats to retake the House outright, 208 races favored their way against 205 for ours. That is not a lean. That is a call.

Then today. The Senate Leadership Fund is pulling money out of North Carolina to prop up Kansas, which The New York Times is reporting as triage and which I am reporting as discipline, a distinction I intend to keep insisting on. The same day, Senator Steve Daines, who used to run this committee, told The Hill the midterms could be like 2006, "and 2006 was really bad for Republicans."

Also today, the president warned Republicans directly about Texas and Michigan — the two states our messaging has insisted all along are fine, and I was about to say they're fine, they're— they are not fine. I am going to need a minute.

“They've got a bottomless super PAC and they're moving it like a household during a layoff — pull the furnace fund from North Carolina to patch the Kansas roof. When the guy who used to run the committee tells you to picture 2006, that's not messaging, that's the actuary walking into the room. The only money still flowing to Texas and Michigan is the leftover kind, and leftover money finds leftover candidates.”
Sal
“Resource allocation is strategy, not retreat — National Republicans are playing to win, full stop, and pulling out of North Carolina to save Kansas, which Sabato and Cook both just moved against us in the same week — okay, that's not the sentence I wanted to end on. The president's watching Texas and Michigan because he's thorough, not because — did I say watching? I meant confident. Confident but thorough.”
Chip

Earlier in this story

The receipts

In special elections, Democrats have retained 10 points more of their previous turnout than Republicans Ballotpedia, 26 February 2026

GOP senator says midterms could be like 2006: 'And 2006 was really bad for Republicans'
The Hillmainstream§

Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.) is warning that Republicans could get drubbed in this year’s midterm election, much like what happened to Republicans 20 years ago during former President George W. Bush’s second midterm elections, when the GOP lost control of both the House and Senate.

· Cook Political Report shifts Kansas, South Carolina Senate races toward Democrats from the morgue, 23 Sep 2026

· Sabato's Crystal Ball moves 3 Senate, 4 gubernatorial races in Democrats' favor from the morgue, 22 Sep 2026

· Cook Political Report projects Democrats will take control of the House as races shift from the morgue, 25 Sep 2026

· U.N. experts say U.S. may have committed war crimes with 2 Iran strikes from the morgue, 22 Sep 2026

· Trump Says 'Big Decision' Coming on Whether to 'Annihilate' Iran from the morgue, 18 Sep 2026

· Pentagon No. 3 frustrates senators in closed-door briefing on Iran war, Trump defense strategy from the morgue, 17 Sep 2026

· Senate Democrats, minus Fetterman, urge Hegseth to provide receipt for Iran war costs from the morgue, 17 Sep 2026

· Hegseth on "devastation" to Iran's capabilities from the morgue, 10 Sep 2026

· Trump admits Iran war will not end before midterms from the morgue, 9 Sep 2026

· Iran War Trump Said Would Be Quick Has Now Lasted 6 Months With 'No End In Sight' from the morgue, 28 Aug 2026

· CBO Finds Trump's Iran War Has Already Cost Nearly $40 Billion—And That's a 'Conservative' Estimate from the morgue, 15 Sep 2026

· Tillis supports Hegseth impeachment resolution: 'He needs to go' from the morgue, 18 Sep 2026

· Massie Files Impeachment Articles Against Hegseth for Illegal Iran War, Boat Murders from the morgue, 15 Sep 2026

· Massie launches effort to impeach Hegseth from the morgue, 15 Sep 2026

· Tillis urges Trump to fire Hegseth over 'inept management' of military from the morgue, 2 Sep 2026

· Tillis renews calls for Hegseth’s firing after Driscoll’s departure: ‘I have never witnessed more inept management’ from the morgue, 2 Sep 2026

· Farmer who voted for Trump says farmers are "all just in survival mode" from the morgue, 18 Sep 2026

· Farmer who voted for Trump says "I can't stay in business" amid rising costs from the morgue, 18 Sep 2026

· Massie says he’s convinced enough Republicans to pass Epstein Files II discharge petition from the morgue, 18 Sep 2026

· Massie names Epstein 'coconspirators,' discusses new Epstein files legislation from the morgue, 1 Sep 2026

· Read Thomas Massie’s eight impeachment charges against Pete Hegseth from the morgue, 15 Sep 2026

· Fake Republican midterm convention site still redirects to Epstein files from the morgue, 7 Sep 2026

· Trump says he has a ‘big decision’ coming up on Iran: ‘Do I want to go in and annihilate them’ from the morgue, 17 Sep 2026

· Fox News Poll: 71% think Trump administration lacks plan to end Iran war from the morgue, 17 Sep 2026

· Iran recently downed at least 2 American drones, officials say from the morgue, 17 Sep 2026

· Big Oil Stocks Surged Due to Iran War—and New Filings Show How President Trump Cashed In from the morgue, 27 Aug 2026

· Live updates: Energy secretary downplays rising gas prices as US, Iran trade strikes from the morgue, 6 Sep 2026

· U.S. Strike on Iranian School May Have Been War Crime, U.N. Report Says from the morgue, 17 Sep 2026

· UN Inquiry Finds US Strike on Minab, Iran That Killed 123 Children Was War Crime from the morgue, 17 Sep 2026

· UN investigators conclude ‘reasonable grounds’ to believe certain US strikes in Iran were war crimes from the morgue, 17 Sep 2026

· UN Suspects US War Crimes in Iran from the morgue, 17 Sep 2026

· US Condemned for 'War Crimes' After Bombing of Wedding Party in Iran from the morgue, 2 Sep 2026

· US investigating if missile hit Iranian wedding ceremony, killing 4 from the morgue, 4 Sep 2026

· Trump says he has a ‘big decision coming up’ on Iran from the morgue, 17 Sep 2026

· White House issues explosive response to UN-backed report claiming US committed war crimes against world’s No.1 sponsor of terror, Iran from the morgue, 17 Sep 2026

· Human rights experts: 'Reasonable grounds' to believe US committed war crimes with Iran strikes from the morgue, 17 Sep 2026

· US Energy Consumers Have Spent $121 Billion Extra Since Trump Launched Iran War: Moody's from the morgue, 17 Sep 2026

· Iran downed at least 2 American drones in recent days, U.S. officials say from the morgue, 17 Sep 2026

· Iran: Account of US Air Force colonel's rescue 'fictional' from the morgue, 17 Sep 2026

· Consumer Burden of Trump Iran War Exceeds $100 Billion as Oil Prices Pass $100 a Barrel from the morgue, 9 Sep 2026

· 'A Serious and Alarming Threat': US Bombing, Blockade Deepen Iran Medical Crisis from the morgue, 9 Sep 2026

· Consumer Confidence Hits Lowest Level in Months as US Faces 'Trump's Reckless Tariffs and War With Iran' from the morgue, 25 Aug 2026

· U.S. Air Force officer rescued from Iran speaks for the first time to 60 Minutes from the morgue, 8 Sep 2026

· Rep. Thomas Massie forcing vote on Pete Hegseth's impeachment from the morgue, 16 Sep 2026

· Did Johnson Just Adjourn Congress for 7 Weeks to Avoid Massie's Impeachment Articles Against Hegseth? from the morgue, 16 Sep 2026

· The Hitchhiker’s Guide to Massie saying Johnson is sending the House home early to prevent Hegseth impeachment from the morgue, 16 Sep 2026

· ‘You’re Elected to Fight and Kill the Other Side’: How Congress Lost Its Way from the morgue, 16 Sep 2026

· Army combat veteran challenging Mike Lawler calls Hegseth national security 'hazard,' backs impeachment from the morgue, 6 Sep 2026

· Former Air Force secretary says he 'couldn't serve' in Trump administration from the morgue, 6 Sep 2026

· Former Air Force secretary: Hegseth's Pentagon 'dysfunctional' from the morgue, 3 Sep 2026

· House Republicans split over leaving Washington early for campaign trail from the morgue, 1 Sep 2026

· Since 2025, Trump Made More Stock Trades Than All 535 Congress Members Combined from the morgue, 16 Sep 2026

· Fossil Fuel Advertising Contracts Hit Record High as Big Oil Pockets Billions From Iran War from the morgue, 16 Sep 2026

· 'How are we gonna get through this?' Many Americans are struggling as prices rise from the morgue, 16 Sep 2026

· Trump's Top Oil Stocks Have Made Him Up to $4.4 Million Richer During Iran War: Analysis from the morgue, 9 Sep 2026

· 'Trump Did It!': At $5.85 a Gallon, Diesel Price Hits All-Time High in US Thanks to War on Iran from the morgue, 4 Sep 2026

· Gas prices reach Labor Day high amid Iran war from the morgue, 8 Sep 2026

· Trump Hammered Over Iran War That Drove Gas Prices Above $4 Per Gallon Every Day in August for First Time Ever from the morgue, 31 Aug 2026

· Warsh under pressure as Fed weighs rate hike from the morgue, 15 Sep 2026

· Inflation held at 3.4% in August in consumer price index, creating tough choice for Warsh Fed from the morgue, 11 Sep 2026

· Warsh indicates Fed could raise rates to cool inflation from the morgue, 28 Aug 2026

· Key U.S. Bond Rate Near 20-Year High as Oil Prices Keep Climbing from the morgue, 15 Sep 2026

· 10-year Treasury yield hits highest level since 2007, oil surges above $105 as Fed expected to hike interest rates from the morgue, 15 Sep 2026

· Benchmark mortgage rate hits 14-month high as bond yields keep rising from the morgue, 10 Sep 2026

· Benchmark mortgage rate hits highest mark in over a year from the morgue, 3 Sep 2026

· Goldman Sachs warns oil prices could hit $120 as U.S. fuel costs surge from the morgue, 8 Sep 2026

· Massie Moves to Force Impeachment Vote Against Hegseth, Citing Civilian Deaths from the morgue, 15 Sep 2026

· GOP Rep Thomas Massie introduces 8 articles of impeachment against War Secretary Pete Hegseth from the morgue, 15 Sep 2026

· Republican Rep. Massie moves to impeach Defense Secretary Hegseth over Iran war from the morgue, 15 Sep 2026

· Thomas Massie Forces Vote To Impeach Pete Hegseth from the morgue, 15 Sep 2026

· Pete Hegseth Faces Growing Criticism as War With Iran Rolls On from the morgue, 3 Sep 2026

· Hegseth Quietly Extends Middle East Troop Deployments Into 2027 as Iran War Drags On from the morgue, 3 Sep 2026

· Costco imposes purchase limits on motor oil, hikes prices by nearly double from the morgue, 15 Sep 2026

· As gas averages $4.31 nationwide, diesel fuel hits all-time high: "It's painful. It's real hard" from the morgue, 14 Sep 2026

· Costco Raises Motor Oil Price, Caps Customer Purchases As Iran War Drags On from the morgue, 14 Sep 2026

· 'Can't Message That Away': GOP Frets as Trump Administration Desperately Spins Record-High Diesel Prices from the morgue, 5 Sep 2026

· European Union member states agree to a natural gas price cap in an attempt to limit economic damage from the global energy crisis. The price cap can be triggered beginning on February 15, if for thre from the morgue, 19 Dec 2022

· Spike on 10-year bond yields renews concerns over U.S. debt from the morgue, 15 Sep 2026

· 10-Year Treasury Yield Reaches 5%, Highest Level in Years from the morgue, 14 Sep 2026

· Treasury reveals $6B in debt buybacks, triple the normal level – but markets slump from the morgue, 9 Sep 2026

· Trump blames rise in diesel prices on Ukrainian strikes against Russian oil refineries from the morgue, 14 Sep 2026

· Trump blames rising diesel price on Russia-Ukraine war from the morgue, 14 Sep 2026

· What Is Driving Diesel Prices Up? Energy Chaos Caused by Two Wars. from the morgue, 14 Sep 2026

This page is a back-issue: the story as it ran, receipts as they were. The current edition is at the front. The byline is a pen name for a column drafted by a machine and checked by the editor: how this is made.