Trump's super PAC keeps spending nine figures while its own coalition keeps leaving the building.

…(cont) Six days after that, on September 25, the Cook Political Report moved its projection: Democrats take the House. The spending kept running against that call, not toward it.

The earlier reading was already on the page. On September 9, the Washington Examiner reported Latino voters were in play while Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the party's most prominent Hispanic surrogate, stayed off the trail. Four days later, September 13, the CBS Battleground Tracker found Democrats holding a House edge — three weeks before today's numbers confirm it.

Today's filing adds four readings on the same day, October 4. NBC finds Latino voters, the bloc that helped elect Trump, swinging away from him and his party. NPR finds Latter-day Saints women in Arizona turning on Mark Lamb, the Republican congressional candidate and former sheriff accused of sexual misconduct in office; Democrats now see the seat in play. The New York Times finds Democrats leading governor races in Texas, Iowa, Ohio and Alaska — four states where the coalition the PAC spending is meant to hold is the one slipping — with a Republican still leading in Kansas. CBS finds Democrats keeping their House edge, with voters naming prices as the concern.

None of the four readings cancels the spending. The ledger does not show the PAC redirecting money toward the groups it is losing, or away from seats Cook already called lost. It shows the same number, $155 million and climbing, placed across a map that keeps getting redder in the filing and bluer in the polling.

Twenty-six days separate the first watch-list addition from today's four polls. In that span the money moved in one direction and the voters moved in another. The arithmetic does not reconcile; it is not supposed to. A super PAC's ledger tracks what a committee is willing to spend, not what a voter is willing to forgive, hon.