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Page A4From§Eachthe supper edition — 6 October 2026

Forecasters move Kansas to Democrats for first time since FDR; NBC says check your gut.

By LouOne More Question

“Why Democrats may need a gut check on their midterm ambitions: From the Politics Desk”, 6 October 2026 (Photo via NBC News — the original report)

As it ran on the front

How many times this month has somebody who gets paid to call Senate races straight moved the Kansas seat toward the Democrats? I already know the number. Give me a second — I had it written down... here. September 23rd, the next day, the Cook Political Report moved the same seat — Senator Roger Marshall against Democrat Adam Hamilton — from "Likely Republican" to "Lean Republican." October 6th, two weeks later, Cook moved it again, and North Carolina and New Hampshire with it, forecasting, in the wire copy's words, that "Democrats have stronger odds than previously estimated."

So that's three calls on Kansas alone inside two weeks. But there's a fourth call I keep forgetting to mention, and I apologize, I should have led with it. September 4th, a different outfit, Inside Elections, moved New Hampshire the other way — from "tilts Democrat" to "toss-up" — because of the momentum behind the Republican, former Senator John Sununu. Four calls. Three different weeks, since the 22nd and the 23rd land in the same one. Three of the four point toward the Democrats.…

…(cont) My car needs a fan belt. Everybody who's ridden in it knows this. I trust the gauge on the dash more than I trust most things, because it only tells me the one number, and it doesn't argue with itself. These forecasters aren't gauges, but it's close — Sabato's people, Cook's people, they read the registration numbers and the fundraising reports and they move a dial, and the dial moved toward the Democrats three times this month. Kansas hasn't sent a Democrat to the Senate since Franklin Roosevelt was in office. That's not my opinion. That's the dial.

Now here's the part I had to copy twice, because I didn't believe I'd gotten it right the first time. The same day — October 6th, same square on the calendar — NBC News's own politics desk sent out a newsletter. I have the headline right here: "Why Democrats may need a gut check on their midterm ambitions." Same party. Same week the dial moved three times in their direction. A gut check.

CBS News put out something the same day, too — a list of nine Senate races and forty-two House races "to watch," every one of which, they wrote, "can change during the midterm campaign." So on one hand you've got three forecasters saying the dial moved toward the Democrats. On the other, the network's own politics desk is saying maybe don't trust the dial too much, and the network's own news division is saying the dial can always move back. I wrote all three of those down on the same page, and I still don't know which one the Democrats are supposed to believe. I don't think that's for me to say.

Excuse me — before you go. One more thing, and then I'll let you get on with your day. The newsletter I just read you — whose gut did they mean, exactly? Because the headline doesn't say "voters." It doesn't say "forecasters." It says "Democrats." Three nonpartisan outfits just handed them a Senate majority, and the one piece of advice that went out the very same day was to doubt it. I don't know what to do with that, so I'm sorry, I keep coming back to this: the thing that's supposed to get checked here isn't the arithmetic. It's somebody's gut.

“Three outfits that get paid to call Senate races straight all moved the same seats toward the Democrats this month, Kansas for the first time since FDR picked a radio. The same week, the network's own politics desk tells the party to run a gut check on itself before anybody gets too excited. That's not analysis, that's expectation management, and it works whether the dial moves or not.”
Sal
“These ratings shift back and forth every cycle, it doesn't mean anything — Kansas has been safe red since, well, since FDR, actually, now that I hear myself say it. And the gut-check piece isn't spin, it's just tough, fair journalism asking hard questions of — wait, did I just call NBC's own newsletter "tough, fair journalism"? Strike that.”
Chip

The receipts

Democrats are running an average of 11.5 points ahead of their 2024 baseline across 2026 special elections MultiState Elections, 2026 special-election tracking

Three Senate races shift blue as Democrats eye upper-chamber majority
Washington Examinerright§

Cook Political Report shifted three key Senate races to the left in Kansas, North Carolina, and New Hampshire on Tuesday as Democrats seek to retake the upper chamber in the midterm elections. Democrats need to win four Senate seats to gain a net majority, and the election forecaster estimates they can win two to six […]

Democrats are running an average of 11.5 points ahead of their 2024 baseline across 2026 special elections MultiState Elections, 2026 special-election tracking

Cook Political Report moves three Senate races in Democrats’ favor
The Hillmainstream§

The Cook Political Report, an election handicapper, is shifting its odds for Senate races in Kansas, North Carolina and New Hampshire toward Democrats. The changes show how unfavorable the political environment continues to be for Republican candidates amid the war in Iran and the state of the economy. These races being more competitive…

2026 midterm election races to watch
CBS Newsmainstream§

CBS News has identified nine key Senate and 42 House races that will likely decide the majority — all of which can change during the midterm campaign.

· Cook Political Report shifts Kansas, South Carolina Senate races toward Democrats from the morgue, 23 Sep 2026

· Sabato's Crystal Ball moves 3 Senate, 4 gubernatorial races in Democrats' favor from the morgue, 22 Sep 2026

· Inside Elections shifts New Hampshire Senate race to toss-up in favor of John Sununu from the morgue, 4 Sep 2026

This page is a back-issue: the story as it ran, receipts as they were. The current edition is at the front. The byline is a pen name for a column drafted by a machine and checked by the editor: how this is made.