“Democrats now favored in key midterm races that could give them control of US Senate, new projections find – as it happened”, 7 October 2026 (Photo via The Guardian — the original report)
As it ran on the front
The ledger opens on September 5th. President Trump's Super PAC, MAGA Inc., wired $10 million to a political media company, Del Ray Media, for two attack ads in Ken Paxton's Senate campaign in Texas, according to Federal Election Commission filings. Hold the date; every forecast in this column is dated later.
Nine days after that wire, on September 14th, the party was arguing with itself about the economy, afraid voter anger over costs could sink its candidates. The boldest idea on the table was the President's pledge to send every U.S. adult $5,000 if Republicans win in November. Note the order of operations: the voter goes first and is reimbursed after.…
…(cont) September 22nd, Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia moved three Senate races and four governor's races toward Democrats, citing a "persistently poor national environment" for the party, Iowa's Senate race going from "leans Republican" to "toss-up." September 23rd, the Cook Political Report moved Kansas and South Carolina toward Democrats. September 25th, Cook projected the House itself: 208 seats rated solid, likely or lean Democratic against 205 Republican, after fifteen races shifted.
October 2nd, twenty-seven days after the Texas filing, a Republican Super PAC pulled its funding out of North Carolina's Senate race, where the candidate, Michael Whatley, is backed by the President. The Guardian's account calls it a Republican PAC and stops there, and I am not matching it to the Texas entry without a filing that says so. The amounts reconcile without the name: $10 million to Texas, $5 million this week into South Carolina, the seat Cook downgraded on September 23rd, and North Carolina at zero.
That same day, Senator Steve Daines of Montana, a former head of the Senate Republican campaign arm, said this year could look like 2006, "and 2006 was really bad for Republicans." The next day, New York Times polling found Democratic Senate candidates ahead of or even with Republicans in five competitive races, some in areas the reporting calls traditionally redder.
Which brings us to today. ABC reports that some Republicans fear a billion dollars will not buy a majority. The Guardian's projections favor Democrats in the races that decide the Senate. CBS counts 10 Senate and 42 House races still live, with four weeks to go.
So, the table, hon. In the fifteen days from September 22nd to today, the forecasts moved one way. Over twenty-seven days, the money moved into two states and out of a third. One of those two columns is a document somebody signed. Four weeks is plenty of time to spend a billion dollars. It is not enough time to put $5,000 into one adult's hand, and by the terms of the pledge, nothing starts until after the count.
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“They have a billion dollars for ads and they just told North Carolina its Senate race isn't worth five dollars of it — pulled out with four weeks left. And the big economic plan for people drowning in costs is five grand after you vote the right way; that's not a policy, that's a receipt for your ballot. The money's going where the forecasts already are, and your kid's school is still waiting on its copy paper.”
“Look, reallocating resources is discipline, that's all it is — we're playing offense in South Carolina. Offense? Did I say offense, that doesn't sound like me, it's a seat we hold, you hold a seat, that's defense. And the handicappers don't vote, only Election Day counts, which is exactly why we put five million into the race they say is slipping, and nothing into the one we're, well, you heard me.”
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Democrats are gaining ground in multiple key races as they look to take control of Congress with only 4 weeks to go before the midterms. Caitlin Huey-Burns, Anthony Salvanto and Jessica Taylor, Senate and governors editor for The Cook Political Report, join "The Daily Report" to discuss the top races to watch.
This page is a back-issue: the story as it ran, receipts as they were. The current edition is at the front. The byline is a pen name for a column drafted by a machine and checked by the editor: how this is made.
