‘It’s the war, it’s gas prices’
Page B39From§Eachthe noon edition — 7 October 2026
THE THIRD TAPE
Paxton defended the Iran war on the record, blames it for sinking him off the record, third time

As it ran on the front
The talking point died in a private room among donors and lobbyists, which is roughly where it had been living anyway.
Born in public, on the record: the attorney general of Texas defended American involvement in the war with Iran. He did it while the president was saying, on September 18th, that a big decision was coming on whether to annihilate the country, and while United Nations experts were saying, on September 22nd, that two of the strikes may have been war crimes. The budget office closed its books on the war at thirty-eight billion dollars and called that figure conservative, which here means there is room above it.…
…(cont) The number came home as diesel. Texas farmers are mixing their own fertilizer now, because the sacked stuff costs what the war costs; the Texas Farm Bureau endorsed him anyway, on September 16th.
Then the campaign. On August 28th Senator Cornyn declined to raise money for him and told the Texas Tribune he was lazy, a poor campaigner, not offering a compelling case. On September 2nd his opponent's campaign complained to the Federal Election Commission about a million dollars routed to a Paxton-aligned super PAC; twelve days later the Senate Leadership Fund's Texas affiliate put nearly fifty-four million dollars into his campaign outright. By September 27th a poll had him down five, 49 to 44.
On September 30th, the first tape: the president's Dallas convention, he told donors, dropped our numbers. The president came to Texas to campaign for him the next day regardless, and is due back today.
This Wednesday, the third tape. It's not tariffs, he says. It's the war, it's gas prices, it's diesel. Over six dollars a gallon for diesel, and people are feeling the pinch; affordability is by far our biggest problem, which is why we're having a hard time with the numbers. An attendee points out that he can't stop the war. Right, he says. So many factors in this federal race are uncontrollable. I don't make the decisions. Not malarkey, exactly — he is reading his own polling out loud to the people who paid for it. Indoors the war gets one courtesy: a room can agree it is a shit deal, because nothing said in the room requires a vote. What irked the Republicans running his rescue, Politico reports, was not that part. It was his observing that Washington Republicans largely control his race.
He is survived by the war; by the thirty-eight billion the budget office called conservative; and by fifty-four million dollars of Washington money with a candidate attached. He is preceded in death by his wife's willingness to say his name — her ad, out Saturday, asks Texans to back the ticket and never arrives at him, nine days after she told conservative women to vote Republican even if we're mad — and by his opponent's week, two events cancelled with the flu.
In lieu of flowers, keep the diesel receipt. Early voting opens in ten days; bring it, and ask the next candidate who says the decisions are made somewhere else to name who makes them.
“In public he defended this war; in a closed room he tells the donors it's the war, it's gas, it's diesel, and then says he doesn't make the decisions. Nearly fifty-four million dollars of Washington money went into that race, and not a dollar of it gets diesel under six bucks or puts fertilizer back in a Texas barn. That's the con — run on the price, never vote on the thing that set it.”
“These are private remarks about affordability, which is a kitchen-table issue, which is exactly what voters say they care about — so in a sense he's agreeing with Texas. Did I say the war was a drag? That doesn't sound like me. Look, the ticket has nearly fifty-four million behind it and the president is in Texas today; that's not a campaign in trouble, that's a campaign with resources.”
Earlier in this story
- Senate hopeful blames the war's price for his campaign, the same price farmers now mix at home. By Mort · the coffee break edition, 7 October 2026
- Diesel breaks a record every week the war runs; farmer buys 9,000 gallons the week it breaks again By Chip · the supper edition, 3 October 2026
- Trump asks Xi for more fuel, gets a Chinese export ban, then threatens Europe with his own By Ruth · the supper edition, 1 October 2026
- Trump says Iran war could cost Republicans the midterms, adds it should help By Chip · the supper edition, 1 October 2026
- Trump blames Ukraine for his Iran war's diesel spike, then threatens Germany and France to cover it. By Ruth · the matinee edition, 1 October 2026
- Kansas's 87-year Senate streak takes three hits in four days: two forecasters, then an ICE raid. By Ruth · the noon edition, 1 October 2026
The receipts
Leaked audio reveals Texas attorney general telling fundraiser that affordability is his campaign’s biggest problem; Trump due to speak in Texas on Wednesday California to ‘actively monitor’ possible threats after Trump said Iran could ‘take out’ LA and San Diego Sign up for the Breaking News US email Tonight, we’ll have another set of…
Texas Republican Senate candidate Ken Paxton’s estranged wife, Angela Paxton, addressed the “elephant in the room” in a new advertisement and urged Texas Republicans to vote for the GOP ticket regardless of who is on the ballot. “I’m Texas Senator Angela Paxton,”
Ken Paxton, the Republican Party's nominee for the US Senate in Texas, blamed President Donald Trump's illegal war with Iran for his political woes in a leaked recording published by Axios on Wednesday. In the recording, which was made during a private meeting with donors and lobbyists last month, Paxton was asked by an attendee which…
Angela Paxton is urging Texas voters to support Mr. Paxton’s Senate campaign, even as she is divorcing him and accusing him of adultery. She has political aspirations of her own.
Paxton’s closed-door comments — that D.C. Republicans are largely controlling his race — have irked several close to the Texas Senate rescue effort.
With less than a month to go before the general election and early voting set to begin in just 10 days, the two candidates in Texas’s closely watched Senate race are facing unique challenges. Democratic nominee James Talarico has canceled at least two campaign events after coming down with the flu, and Republican state Attorney […]
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, the Republican nominee for Senate in the Lone Star State, said in a leaked audio recording that the war in Iran and high prices at home are a drag on his midterm campaign. “It's not tariffs. ...
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton was caught calling the war in Iran the No. 1 drag on his Senate bid in the third major audio leak of his campaign in recent weeks.
· John Cornyn calls Ken Paxton ‘lazy’ and a ‘poor campaigner’ in explanation of Texas campaign trail absence from the morgue, 28 Aug 2026
· 'It Dropped Our Numbers': In Leaked Audio, Ken Paxton Admits Trump's Texas Convention Backfired from the morgue, 30 Sep 2026
· GOP Senate candidate Ken Paxton says Trump's midterm convention hurt him in leaked audio from the morgue, 1 Oct 2026
· Trump heads to Texas to campaign despite leaked Ken Paxton audio from the morgue, 1 Oct 2026
· Dark money in Texas Senate race spurs Talarico complaint to FEC against Paxton from the morgue, 2 Sep 2026
· Paxton gets $54M boost from Senate Leadership Fund's Texas PAC from the morgue, 14 Sep 2026
· Talarico holds 5-point lead over Paxton in Texas Senate race, poll shows from the morgue, 27 Sep 2026
· Ken Paxton's estranged wife tells GOP women: Vote Republican 'even if we’re mad' from the morgue, 23 Sep 2026
· Ken Paxton’s estranged wife urges voters to back his Senate bid, yet avoids mentioning him by name from the morgue, 4 Oct 2026
This page is a back-issue: the story as it ran, receipts as they were. The current edition is at the front. The byline is a pen name for a column drafted by a machine and checked by the editor: how this is made.