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Page B39From§Eachthe supper edition — 7 October 2026

Trump says the rallies are helping Republicans, the same rallies his own candidate's tapes called a backfire.

“Paxton admits Trump’s Iran war and US gas prices are plaguing Republicans in leaked audio”, 7 October 2026 (Photo via The Guardian — the original report)

As it ran on the front

"The Working Theory That a Rally Helps" is dead this week, in San Antonio, on its third outing, survived by a crowd, a stage, and the tape that kept outvoting it.

It was born quietly on September 30th in Dallas, when the president's own candidate, Ken Paxton, told donors at a fundraiser that the midterm convention had cost him in the polls — "it dropped our numbers," on tape. Asked that day whether he'd heard it, the president said no, and praised the convention anyway. The theory held.…

…(cont) It held again on October 1st, when the president flew to Texas to campaign for Paxton regardless of the audio, the trip itself standing in for an answer.

It did not survive the third tape. This week Paxton told another closed-door fundraiser that the issue dragging his campaign was not tariffs — "it's the war, it's gas prices, it's diesel" — the president's war, named by his own candidate as the reason voters are souring. Diesel does not care who is on the ballot; some shit does not poll, and this is that kind.

On Wednesday the president made his third trip to Texas in a month, to San Antonio, to rally for the man whose own recordings say the rallying is the problem. Asked outside the White House what the trips were accomplishing, he told reporters he thinks he's helping the Republican Party with the rallies. He said it the same day his candidate's tape said the opposite of him, for the third time, in his own voice, on the record.

The theory leaves behind no formal rebuttal, because none was needed; it refuted itself, three times, into the same recorder.

Preceded in death this week by "I Haven't Heard That," the position that ignorance of one's own candidate's complaints could be maintained indefinitely. It could not. Neither could this.

There is no malarkey left to spread on the grave; the grave filled itself in, on tape, in the candidate's own voice, three separate times, while the rallies kept being booked.

In lieu of flowers, check the price of diesel before you check what anyone tells you a rally did.

“This ain't confusion, pal, it's a guy getting lied to by his own campaign — and the campaign is him. The war jacks up the diesel, the diesel sinks the polls, and the fix on offer is a third rally telling people the thing hurting them is helping them. That's the con, plain as the pump.”
Sal
“Look, presence matters, energy matters — the base needs to see him on the ground, that's just retail politics. This isn't about the audio, it's about momentum, it's — okay, the audio is literally his own candidate saying the rallies aren't working, but optics aren't nothing. That's not what I meant. Scratch that.”
Chip

Earlier in this story

The receipts

Paxton admits Trump’s Iran war and US gas prices are plaguing Republicans in leaked audio
The Guardianmainstream§

Texas attorney general acknowledged affordability was his party’s ‘biggest problem’ heading into the midterms US politics live – latest updates Ken Paxton, the Texas attorney general running as the Republican candidate in a competitive Senate race, admitted privately that rising fuel prices as a result of Donald Trump’s Iran war were…

Democrats are running an average of 11.5 points ahead of their 2024 baseline across 2026 special elections MultiState Elections, 2026 special-election tracking

Watch live: Trump rallies Texas Republicans amid midterm warning signs
The Hillmainstream§

President Trump is returning to Texas Wednesday night as Republicans look to shore up support in an increasingly competitive midterm landscape. Trump will rally voters in San Antonio, marking his third trip to the state in a month after stops in Dallas for the GOP midterm convention and a tour last week at a truck...

Trump’s Texas two-step: From the Politics Desk
NBC Newsmainstream§

Welcome to From the Politics Desk, a daily newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail.

· Trump heads to Texas to campaign despite leaked Ken Paxton audio from the morgue, 1 Oct 2026

This page is a back-issue: the story as it ran, receipts as they were. The current edition is at the front. The byline is a pen name for a column drafted by a machine and checked by the editor: how this is made.