With early voting starting Monday in Texas in the closely watched Senate race between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton, CBS News executive director of elections and surveys Anthony Salvanto dives into our latest poll of the Lone Star State.
Page A216From§Eachthe afternoon edition — 18 October 2026
Trump preemptively blames Cornyn for Paxton's Senate loss, two weeks before Texans vote.

As it ran on the front
Today we are making a shoo-in, which is an American word from the racetrack for a horse so far out front the other runners barely matter. You will need one open Texas Senate seat, a nominee the president picked himself, and the early voting that opened on Monday, with election day two weeks off.
The nominee is Ken Paxton, 63, the state's attorney general, whom Donald Trump endorsed by telling a crowd he "may not dress right, he may not talk exactly perfectly, and he may not be the best-looking guy I've ever seen." Running against him is James Talarico, the Democrat, and CBS News has called the race a toss-up, with turnout the only thing left to measure.…
Clive Best-looking. I have been told the same thing about my verse, more or less, and I notice nobody endorsed me off the back of it.
Gary Nobody's endorsed your verse because nobody's read past the first line. I can at least finish a job. Ask the shed door.
Turn him over and look underneath, the way you would a chicken, and the Guardian has done the looking this week: getaway cars, affairs, a 2025 New Year's party in Dubai with two American fugitives who never came home, the whole file filed under one phrase, "uniquely ill-chosen."
You will be looking for the part where the party pulls him from the ticket. There is no such part: a nominee this damaged, two weeks out, is simply blamed instead, which is cheaper than a ballot reprint.
Rob Ill-chosen. Who among us was chosen at all, is what I want to know, and nobody's asked whose turn it is on the rota either.
Keith Nobody's answering that, so I'll say it: a party that can't pick a candidate is a party that needs a consultant, and I know a man who does flags.
Now we come to the money, and a toss-up this close does not wait for seconds. On the 3rd of September Karl Rove warned that time was running out and that Paxton needed Trump "tossing a lot of money" his way for ads against Talarico; those ads, so far as the record shows, never made it into the pan. On the 15th of October, with that gap still open, Trump posted that Senator John Cornyn and Rove "are doing everything possible" to hurt Paxton, blame assigned two weeks before anyone has lost anything. Paxton had already told donors otherwise: in a recording leaked on the 7th, he named the president's own war with Iran, gas prices, and diesel over six dollars a gallon as what was "dragging" his campaign.
This one serves whoever is holding the seat when the toss-up settles, Talarico or Paxton. Cornyn pays for it either way, in blame, whether or not he ever sent the money Rove asked for.
Clive Paying in blame with no money changing hands — that's just how the kitty works in this house, and I for one have never once seen a receipt.
“Trump's already got his fall guy picked out, and the fall guy hasn't even fallen yet. Rove asked for ad money back in September, it never showed, and now the same party that handpicked Paxton is blaming the senator who was supposed to help him win. Two weeks out, a seat nobody thought was in play is a coin flip, and that's the whole trick: pick the candidate, starve the campaign, blame somebody else.”
“A toss-up this late just means Democrats are finally bothering to show up, that's turnout, not a scandal. Every candidate's got a file somebody digs up in October — Dubai, sure, fine — but nothing's been proven in a court, nothing's even been — did I say proven? There's nothing to prove. Next question.”
Earlier in this story
- Op-ed warns Congress twice in 16 days, drops the $17.1 billion fix it cited the first time. By Ruth · the afternoon edition, 18 October 2026
- Farmers who backed Trump for a decade turn two weeks before Republicans must defend Congress. By Ruth · the afternoon edition, 18 October 2026
- Record-low approval arrives before Vance finishes asking voters for more time. By Ruth · the morning edition, 18 October 2026
- Trump's $5,000 a head arrived as $90 out of the Medicare fund he called a pointless slush fund, with the other $4,910 due only if Republicans keep both chambers November 3 By Lou · the evening edition, 18 October 2026
The receipts
Texas's Senate race is devolving into a blame game among Republicans weeks out from Election Day as the party's nominee Ken Paxton faces a stream of negative headlines and Democrats grow increasingly confident about flipping the state. Republican tensions spilled into the public on Thursday when President Trump lashed out at incumbent…
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton attended a 2025 New Year’s party in Dubai with two fugitives who did not return to the United States, according to a new report from the Wall Street Journal. The revelation comes as the Trump-backed Republican challenges Texas Democrat James Talarico in the final weeks of the Senate race. Paxton […]
The Republican state attorney general appears uniquely ill-chosen as a candidate – but he is a political survivor who could yet frustrate Democratic dreams Depending how you look at the situation, it is either predictable that Ken Paxton , Texas ’s attorney general and Republican candidate for US Senate , is struggling in the polls – or…
Turnout will be key as Texans voice cost of living concerns in Senate race between Ken Paxton and James Talarico.
President Donald Trump is pinning the blame on Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) and former White House adviser Karl Rove in the event that Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton ends up losing his Senate race next month. In a Truth Social post on Thursday, Trump said Cornyn and Rove “are doing everything possible”
· Ken Paxton Blames Trump's Illegal War for His Political Woes in Yet Another Leaked Recording from the morgue, 7 Oct 2026
· Rove: 'Time is running out' for Paxton in Texas Senate race from the morgue, 3 Sep 2026
This page is a back-issue: the story as it ran, receipts as they were. The current edition is at the front. The byline is a pen name for a column drafted by a machine and checked by the editor: how this is made.