A recent CBS News poll shows James Talarico is essentially tied with Ken Paxton among Texas voters. CBS News' Fin Gómez reports.
Page B42From§Eachthe afternoon edition — 19 October 2026
Paxton told donors "everybody's numbers are down." Three weeks later, the polls agree.
As it ran on the front
Today we bury a lock, not a man — the plain assumption that a Texas Senate seat does not need defending, the kind of inherited certainty political parties budget around instead of poll for. The death took about six weeks, and it is worth reading beat by beat, because that is the only way an institution's passing looks: not a heart attack, a slow bleed with a date stamped on every page.
On September 3, Karl Rove told Republicans that "time is running out" for Ken Paxton, the state attorney general and the president's handpicked nominee. A week later, on September 10, an AARP poll found Talarico, the Democrat, ahead by four points. By September 27 the lead had grown to five, the same day Democratic strategist Paul Begala pointed to Governor Abbott's own tightening reelection number and called the shape of the state a "wipe out" in progress. Three days after that, in audio leaked to reporters, Paxton told his own donors "everybody's numbers are down." By October 7, a second leak had him blaming the president's war for his troubles; by October 13, reporters had placed him at a 2025 New Year's party in Dubai attended by American fugitives; by October 15 the president was preemptively blaming Senator John Cornyn and Rove for a loss that had not happened yet; by October 18 the Guardian had tallied the rest and called him, in its own words, "uniquely ill-chosen." A candidate's character is a straight-news matter, not an obituary, and none of that is this column's business. What is this column's business is what all of it did to the lock.…
…(cont) Today, October 19, the number arrived. A new poll finds Talarico and Paxton essentially tied, the five points gone, two weeks before Texans vote. CBS brought on two strategists to ask, soberly, whether Paxton has a likability problem — a question nobody books airtime for about a seat that is actually safe. That panel is the death certificate. A coin flip is not a loss; Paxton may still win. But the lock never needed him to lose. It only needed the race to become discussable, pollable, worth a Sunday-show segment, and by that penny-ante standard it has been dead for six weeks.
Born: longer ago than anyone currently covering the seat. Survived by: a toss-up, a party spending money it did not plan to spend, and a nominee telling his own donors the numbers are down. Preceded in death by nothing; it had not lost a round before this one.
In lieu of flowers, vote like the lock is already gone, because every number filed here says that it is.
“Paxton told his own donors in private that the numbers were cratering, and three weeks later the public poll says the exact same thing. That's not a late surprise, that's a man watching his private numbers catch up with him on cable news. The only lock left on this race is the one on the ballot box, and it opens on Election Day no matter who's embarrassed by what's inside.”
“A tied poll two weeks out just means Texans are finally paying attention — that's healthy, that's democracy working. Paxton's numbers aren't down, the sample's skewed, everybody knows CBS skews these things — did I say CBS skews, I meant the methodology needs context. Republicans have held this seat for a long time; a close race proves nothing except enthusiasm, probably more of it on our side.”
Earlier in this story
- Trump preemptively blames Cornyn for Paxton's Senate loss, two weeks before Texans vote. By The Lodgers · the afternoon edition, 18 October 2026
- Op-ed warns Congress twice in 16 days, drops the $17.1 billion fix it cited the first time. By Ruth · the afternoon edition, 18 October 2026
- Farmers who backed Trump for a decade turn two weeks before Republicans must defend Congress. By Ruth · the afternoon edition, 18 October 2026
- Record-low approval arrives before Vance finishes asking voters for more time. By Ruth · the morning edition, 18 October 2026
- Trump's $5,000 a head arrived as $90 out of the Medicare fund he called a pointless slush fund, with the other $4,910 due only if Republicans keep both chambers November 3 By Lou · the evening edition, 18 October 2026
The receipts
Some Republican voters in Texas are weighing whether to elect Ken Paxton to the U.S. Senate despite his checkered past. Political strategists Harrison Fields and Robyn Patterson join with more.
· Ken Paxton says midterm convention hurt GOP in leaked audio from the morgue, 30 Sep 2026
· One normally quiet Texas race shows 2026 will be a ‘wipe out’ for Republicans, Dem stategist claims from the morgue, 27 Sep 2026
· Talarico leads Paxton by 5 points in Texas Senate race poll from the morgue, 27 Sep 2026
· Talarico leads Paxton in Texas by 4 points: Poll from the morgue, 10 Sep 2026
This page is a back-issue: the story as it ran, receipts as they were. The current edition is at the front. The byline is a pen name for a column drafted by a machine and checked by the editor: how this is made.