Billions of dollars in political advertising tried to mislead voters, but Kalshi's prediction markets had winners ahead in 98% of federal races.
Page F136From§Eachthe evening edition — 7 November 2026
Prediction market credited with calling 98% of midterm races is under felony charges for taking the bets
As it ran on the front
Ninety-eight percent of federal races had the winner ahead on a betting exchange, and the house that took the bets is a criminal defendant. Ninety-eight. You are thinking one of those facts has to give way to the other. Neither is obliged to.
Utah filed felony charges on 29 October against Kalshi and two of its executives: violating the state gambling ban, profiting from illegal activity. Two days earlier, on 27 October, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission sued Utah — to stop the state shutting down CFTC-registered contract markets. Do note the order. The regulator moved first, and the state had won its round in August: a federal judge in Utah refused to keep the anti-gambling laws off the firm. Won, mind you, and collected nothing. What protects the exchange is not a verdict in its favour; it is preemption, and preemption is indifferent to the merits ... which is why a company can be a felony defendant in October and the week's most-cited analyst in November.…
…(cont) The firm calls the charges "crazy overreach". One column this week credits its markets against "billions of dollars in political advertising". The New York Post, the same day, calls it "a digital bookie shadowing your kid's school day". Three descriptions, one company.
Utah keeps the statute. Somebody else keeps the jurisdiction.
The toll man woke at the ford. Upstream, in the dark, the herd crossed.
“Utah says taking money on an election is a felony, and the federal regulator ran to court to stop Utah from saying it. Nobody in that fight argued the betting should stop — they argued over who gets to allow it, and the exchange was pricing your races the whole time. Now the pitch is your kid's school day, and the same federal card beats your state's law.”
“Look, 98 percent of federal races, against billions in political advertising that tried to mislead people — those aren't my numbers, that's the coverage. And nobody is putting a bookie in a school; did I say bookie? That doesn't sound like me. It's a CFTC-registered contract market, which is federal, so with respect, Utah doesn't really get a vote here.”
Earlier in this story
- Justice Department abandons hunt for ballots that don't exist; Peltola's campaign sues to see the ones that do. By Mort · the morning edition, 7 November 2026
- Justice Department abandons its own lawsuit against ballots the Supreme Court already let stand. By Mort · the evening edition, 7 November 2026
- Trump sued to block Alaska's count if the Republican lost; a week later Mississippi's trailing Republican tried the same move By Mort · the morning edition, 6 November 2026
- Grand conspiracy probe has spent three lead prosecutors since September and filed zero charges By Lou · the morning edition, 6 November 2026
- Trump demands decoy's 3,600 votes be reassigned, not recounted, to the real Dan Sullivan By Mort · the morning edition, 5 November 2026
- Justice Department's clause for a narrow Republican loss meets a narrow Republican loss, exactly as drafted. By Mort · the evening edition, 5 November 2026
The receipts
Republicans' reconciliation package puts $70 billion into ICE's department NBC News, May 2026
Courts Reject Trump’s Attempt at Deploying ICE to Intimidate VotersA judge ordered Homeland Security to stop sending agents door to door in nine key states to hunt for “voter fraud.”
A digital bookie shadowing your kid’s school day is something every mom and dad should at least know about beforehand.
· Utah files criminal charges against prediction market Kalshi and company co-founders from the morgue, 29 Oct 2026
· CFTC sues to block Utah from enforcing gambling laws against prediction markets from the morgue, 27 Oct 2026
· Trump ask to set aside ‘Decoy Dan’ Alaska Senate ballots ‘not even possible’: attorneys from the morgue, 31 Oct 2026
· Peltola repeats denial of ballot-stacking reports, stays silent on federal probe from the morgue, 31 Oct 2026
· Trump prosecutions under Biden set precedent for DOJ’s Alaska ‘Decoy Dan’ probe, ex-FEC chair says from the morgue, 31 Oct 2026
· Murkowski snubs Trump-backed Alaska candidate, endorses Democrat for governor from the morgue, 28 Oct 2026
· DOJ sues to block Alaska Senate certification if Sullivan loses from the morgue, 24 Oct 2026
· Alaska Election Gambit Shows Justice Dept. Has Bowed to Trump’s Demands from the morgue, 24 Oct 2026
· Donald Trump challenges Alaska Senate trace from the morgue, 24 Oct 2026
· Trump administration sues to block possible Democratic win in Alaska Senate race from the morgue, 24 Oct 2026
· The controversy surrounding convicted former election official Tina Peters from the morgue, 24 Oct 2026
· Alaska Senate race featuring two Dan Sullivans is ‘blatantly corrupt’: Joe Concha from the morgue, 24 Oct 2026
· Trump officials abandon effort to investigate election threats, experts warn from the morgue, 1 Oct 2026
· Tina Peters turns down job with California county's registrar of voters from the morgue, 1 Sep 2026
· Election deniers stoke Trump-driven ballot security fears before midterms from the morgue, 6 Oct 2026
· Facing an electoral wipeout, Trump goes after the system from the morgue, 24 Oct 2026
· Justice Dept. Demands That California Counties Help Identify Noncitizen Voters from the morgue, 24 Oct 2026
· Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifts Alaska and South Carolina Senate races in favor of Democrats from the morgue, 6 Oct 2026
· Appeals Court Rejects 'Likely Unlawful' Trump Push to Undermine Mail-In Voting as Supreme Court Looms from the morgue, 10 Sep 2026
· US justice department sues California over alleged noncitizen voting from the morgue, 15 Oct 2026
· Trump knocks Alaska voting system: 'How stupid are we to do this?' from the morgue, 9 Oct 2026
· Corey Lewandowski Always Found His Way Back to Trump. Until Now. from the morgue, 23 Oct 2026
· Trump announces $6.6bn defense shipyard owned by top Republican donor’s firm from the morgue, 6 Oct 2026
· Companies Backed by Trump Sons Have Scored Over $6 Billion in Pentagon Contracts: Analysis from the morgue, 7 Oct 2026
· DOJ demands that California counties help identify noncitizen voters from the morgue, 24 Oct 2026
· DOJ demands that some California counties set aside alleged noncitizen ballots from the morgue, 25 Oct 2026
· California officials ordered by DoJ to set aside ‘likely’ noncitizen ballots from the morgue, 24 Oct 2026
· LA feds move to halt ballot counting over 20K suspected noncitizen voters from the morgue, 23 Oct 2026
· Trump 'Laying the Groundwork for Election Meddling' With DHS Hunt for Noncitizen Voters from the morgue, 2 Sep 2026
· California has no real safeguards for voting and voter registration from the morgue, 21 Oct 2026
· Federal efforts over alleged noncitizen voting escalate with California arrests from the morgue, 20 Oct 2026
· Federal voter fraud arrests intensify in California days after DOJ warning from the morgue, 19 Oct 2026
· Trump DOJ issues stark warning to California ballot counters after suing state over 20K suspected noncitizen voters from the morgue, 17 Oct 2026
· Intel Democrats on how they'll react if Trump alleges election meddling from the morgue, 23 Oct 2026
· Trump told DOJ to sue to block Alaska Senate results if Republican narrowly loses from the morgue, 26 Oct 2026
· Trump says he personally ordered DOJ lawsuit intervening in Alaska Senate election from the morgue, 23 Oct 2026
· Ramaswamy accuses Acton of ‘lying’ about attack ad, but court records contradict mother’s claim – live from the morgue, 24 Oct 2026
· DoJ sues to block certification of Alaska Senate results if Republican incumbent loses from the morgue, 23 Oct 2026
· Trump-Ordered DOJ Lawsuit in Alaska Seen as First Salvo in GOP Effort to Undermine Midterm Elections from the morgue, 23 Oct 2026
· Trump on the Alaska election lawsuit: 'I'm the one that said, "do it"' from the morgue, 23 Oct 2026
· Trump administration sues to block certification of upcoming Alaska election from the morgue, 23 Oct 2026
· DOJ files lawsuit to block results in Alaska Senate race after two Dan Sullivans land on November ballot from the morgue, 23 Oct 2026
· Trump previews trip to Alaska to campaign for Dan Sullivan, ripping into the other Dan Sullivan from the morgue, 2 Sep 2026
· Trump urges Alaskans to vote for the ‘real’ Dan Sullivan in tight midterms battle from the morgue, 14 Oct 2026
· Sullivan trails Peltola in Alaska Senate contest: AARP poll from the morgue, 17 Sep 2026
· Trump vows to probe other Dan Sullivan in alleged Dem plot to sabotage ‘real’ Alaska GOP senator from the morgue, 14 Oct 2026
· Trump administration sued over plans to send election monitors to voting sites from the morgue, 7 Oct 2026
· AGs v. Trump: How an AWOL Congress made hundreds of lawsuits possible from the morgue, 16 Oct 2026
· The Electoral College meets in the state capitals to officially elect the next President. Joe Biden, the presumptive president-elect, is officially elected president after securing California's 55 ele from the morgue, 14 Dec 2020
· US federal agents raid home of Democratic congresswoman and Trump critic Ilhan Omar from the morgue, 12 Oct 2026
· Ilhan Omar’s Home Raided by DHS Following Trump-GOP Deportation Threats from the morgue, 12 Oct 2026
· Federal Agents Search Home of Rep. Ilhan Omar from the morgue, 13 Oct 2026
· Rep. Ilhan Omar’s residence searched as part of ongoing criminal investigation: DOJ from the morgue, 13 Oct 2026
· Rep. Ilhan Omar's D.C. home searched by Homeland Security investigators from the morgue, 12 Oct 2026
· Rep. Ilhan Omar’s DC home raided by DHS as part of probe into Dem’s immigration paperwork from the morgue, 12 Oct 2026
· Homan confirms 'criminal' investigation involving Ilhan Omar, says he knows 'things are going on’ from the morgue, 13 Sep 2026
· WATCH: Ilhan Omar denies feds have contacted her after border czar Homan confirms 'criminal' investigation from the morgue, 18 Sep 2026
· Could Trump revoke Ilhan Omar's citizenship for alleged brother marriage? Ex federal prosecutor breaks it down from the morgue, 29 Sep 2026
· Did Ilhan Omar marry her own brother? The claims explained from the morgue, 22 Sep 2026
· Russia’s Lavrov blasts US, Western allies as “warmongers’ in fiery UN tirade from the morgue, 26 Sep 2026
· Russia and China unite against US over Iran and Cuba in UN speeches from the morgue, 26 Sep 2026
· U.S. military lays groundwork for potential action around Cuba from the morgue, 26 Sep 2026
· The United Nations Security Council has resoundingly rejected a United States bid to extend a global arms embargo on Iran. In a Security Council vote, United States only got support from the Dominican from the morgue, 14 Aug 2020
· U.S. Threatens New Economic War on Iran by Targeting China & Tehran's Other Top Trading Partners from the morgue, 25 Aug 2026
· In Defiant UN Speech, Iranian President Says US and Israel Are the Real Terrorists from the morgue, 23 Sep 2026
· Trump slams reporting on removal of his endorsements from GOP candidate's website from the morgue, 27 Sep 2026
· Donalds removes several Trump mentions from campaign website from the morgue, 22 Sep 2026
· GOP hopeful removes ‘Pro-Trump’ mention from campaign slogan in deep-red seat from the morgue, 23 Sep 2026
· Where Trump’s 2026 endorsement record stands after primary season from the morgue, 9 Sep 2026
· U.N. experts say U.S. may have committed war crimes with 2 Iran strikes from the morgue, 22 Sep 2026
· Trump Says 'Big Decision' Coming on Whether to 'Annihilate' Iran from the morgue, 18 Sep 2026
· Pentagon No. 3 frustrates senators in closed-door briefing on Iran war, Trump defense strategy from the morgue, 17 Sep 2026
· Senate Democrats, minus Fetterman, urge Hegseth to provide receipt for Iran war costs from the morgue, 17 Sep 2026
· Hegseth on "devastation" to Iran's capabilities from the morgue, 10 Sep 2026
· Trump admits Iran war will not end before midterms from the morgue, 9 Sep 2026
· Iran War Trump Said Would Be Quick Has Now Lasted 6 Months With 'No End In Sight' from the morgue, 28 Aug 2026
· CBO Finds Trump's Iran War Has Already Cost Nearly $40 Billion—And That's a 'Conservative' Estimate from the morgue, 15 Sep 2026
· Tillis supports Hegseth impeachment resolution: 'He needs to go' from the morgue, 18 Sep 2026
· Massie Files Impeachment Articles Against Hegseth for Illegal Iran War, Boat Murders from the morgue, 15 Sep 2026
· Massie launches effort to impeach Hegseth from the morgue, 15 Sep 2026
· Tillis urges Trump to fire Hegseth over 'inept management' of military from the morgue, 2 Sep 2026
This page is a back-issue: the story as it ran, receipts as they were. The current edition is at the front. The byline is a pen name for a column drafted by a machine and checked by the editor: how this is made.