From§Each

FIRST YEAR FRIDAY, 16 OCTOBER 2026 — THE MORNING EDITION FREE, FOREVER — EVERY CLAIM LINKED

CBS Sports' 'proven model' predicts four football winners and the wind with equal certainty, same day.

photo: CBS Sports

Hot Mic Moment

Four of today's five headlines pair the word "prediction" with the word "odds" in the same breath, SportsLine selling the bet and the story in one sentence, no label, no wall between the newsroom and the sportsbook. This reporter is begging somebody to move this to the business desk, because sports can't police its own betting arm.

Continued on Page S18

§63 —

On the worst of the worst

Democrat

Democrat: the needle points at 70.6 PERCENT, out of 170 CITIZENS, 68,289, 29 DEATHS, 70.6 PERCENT. 170 CITIZENS 68,289 29 DEATHS 70.6 PERCENT

The beds. In July, TRAC counted 65,765 people in ICE detention; 46,436 of them, 70.6 percent, had no criminal conviction 1. A year earlier the AP's count was 71.7 percent 2. The population peaked at 68,289 in early February 3.

The people in them. NPR reported in April that 29 people had died in ICE custody since October, surpassing the previous record of 28, set in 2004 4; Human Rights Watch counted 52 deaths from January 20, 2025 through June 4, 2026 5. ProPublica documented more than 170 U.S. citizens held by immigration agents, nearly 20 of them children 6. The phrase is the worst of the worst. The count is seven in ten with no conviction at all.

Sources

  1. 46,436 of 65,765 in ICE detention (70.6 percent) with no criminal conviction — TRAC Immigration, 11 July 2026 ↑
  2. 41,495 of 57,861 detainees (71.7 percent) with no conviction — AP, 12 July 2025 ↑
  3. "At its recent high point in early February 2026, ICE held 68,289 people in detention" — TRAC, 10 April 2026 ↑
  4. "Twenty-nine people have died in ICE custody since October … surpassing 2004's toll of 28" — NPR, 17 April 2026 ↑
  5. 52 deaths in immigration detention from 20 January 2025 to 4 June 2026 — Human Rights Watch, 25 June 2026 ↑
  6. "More Than 170 U.S. Citizens Have Been Held by Immigration Agents," nearly 20 of them children — ProPublica, 16 October 2025 ↑

“I read the phrase in three places. The press secretary: "a focus on the worst of the worst criminals." The department, on the anniversary: ICE "unleashed" on "the worst of the worst." Then I went to the clearinghouse that counts the detention population, just to meet a few of them. July: sixty-five thousand seven hundred sixty-five people in detention. Forty-six thousand four hundred thirty-six with no criminal conviction. Seventy point six percent. Excuse me — I'm going — one question. If the worst of the worst are thirty percent of the beds, who's in the other seventy?”— Lou

“"The worst of the worst." Beautiful phrase. It's on the podium, it's in the press releases, it's the first thing out of the briefing room. Then the research clearinghouse that counts detention looks at who's actually in the beds: seventy point six percent with no criminal conviction. That's not the worst of the worst. That's the most of the most. And more than a hundred seventy of the people they've held were American citizens.”
Sal
“A person without a conviction is simply a person who hasn't been convicted yet, and the administration is being proactive, which is the worst of the worst thing you can say about an administration that is doing its job.”
Chip
The Word today —
Continued on Page W63

U.S. cuts Cuba's fuel in January, runs a $100 million hearts-and-minds program there by September

photo: Washington Examiner

You will be told the embargo has failed. Sixty-seven years of it, and the government it was written against is still standing, so the thing is a ruin. Do not mistake me. Nothing here has broken. It was drafted to deny one island hard currency and fuel, and against that specification it performs ... quite exquisitely. Sixty-seven years. Sixty-seven.

In January the fuel shipments stopped. And what travels the other way? A hundred million dollars, Marco Rubio's programme, for hearts and minds on the island, reported the tenth of September. A hundred million for the hearts, and no fuel for the houses.

Forty-five groups wrote to Hakeem Jeffries on the ninth of September asking the House to vote on the war powers resolution covering the de facto oil embargo. The House has not voted. The caucus is divided over squeezing harder.

Carlos Fernández de Cossío says the aim is to "asphyxiate the people of Cuba into submission." The grid goes down and comes back and goes down. That is the instrument working.

Continued on Page A214

Republicans' 'enormous' financial advantage buys them eleven more lost seats this week alone.

photo: The Hill

On Tuesday, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer circulated a letter to his colleagues. Republican Senate candidates, he wrote, carry an "enormous" financial advantage into the final three weeks of the cycle, a tsunami of late spending that could drown Democratic chances outright. The ledger under that warning checks out. AdImpact's tracking, reported the same week, puts the 2026 cycle on pace to beat the $11.2 billion spent across the entire 2024 presidential election — the most expensive midterm on record, with three weeks of invoices still to clear.

Two days after Schumer's letter, James Carville looked at the same ledger and filed the opposite conclusion. On NewsNation, the Democratic strategist called it "highly likely" that Republicans lose the House and the Senate both, financial advantage and redistricting gains notwithstanding. He was not guessing ahead of the data. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report had already been moving House seats away from Republicans for weeks, and on Thursday it moved eleven more — three districts once rated solid Republican slid to merely likely, five more slid further still, most of them in states that voted the other way just two years ago.

Run the subtraction and the gap does not close. It widens. The side carrying the enormous advantage is the side losing ground, seat by seat, the same week its spending sets the record. Nine days before that Thursday shift, on 7 October, Washington Examiner correspondent Byron York told Hugh Hewitt's audience that Republicans were already unlikely to hold the House, with the Senate still a toss-up. The direction was set before this week's eleven seats ever moved. The spending did not reverse the trend. It has been running the same way since before the most expensive ad buy in American history cleared the bank.

Whoever is buying the airtime, hon, is not buying the outcome the airtime is supposed to produce. The receipts show the spending and the receipts show the seats, filed the same week, by the same nonpartisan shop, and they do not reconcile. When a ledger this size fails to purchase the result it was built to purchase, the gap has an address. It is not a mystery. It goes in the column marked Democrats, eleven seats at a time, this week alone, with three weeks still left on the invoice.

Continued on Page F120

Ilhan Omar's childhood paperwork draws a federal raid and the right's own concession it changes no votes.

I wonder if somebody over at the Daily Caller could do me a favor and walk me through something, because I've been turning it over since Monday and the pieces won't sit still — undisturbed, that's the word that's been rattling around my glovebox since I read it, and I want to get this right before I say anything else.

The Daily Caller does this every day. Writes up how deportation law actually works, walks through what a case does and doesn't touch once it's decided. I do this maybe once a year, when I can't work a thing out on my own, so I'm asking them straight, because on this one they know more than I do.

Here's what I've got written down, more or less, off the wire and off the DOJ's own statement: agents in HSI jackets went through Ilhan Omar's house Monday morning, on a warrant a judge signed. Nobody's arguing that part. What they were there for, according to CBS, is paperwork — not last year's paperwork, paperwork her father filled out when she was a kid, whatever a family fills out coming into this country in whatever year that was. That's the file under investigation.

I've got a shoebox on the shelf above my workbench with every title and registration going back to a Buick I don't even own anymore. There's a form in there I know I filled out wrong, in a year I couldn't tell you offhand. If somebody in a jacket came up my porch steps tomorrow with a warrant for that shoebox, I expect they'd find something. I don't know what. I'm saying there's probably something, the way there probably is in most shoeboxes, most garages, most families that have been filling out forms for forty years.

So I asked the people who'd know, and the Daily Caller — not exactly her corner on a good day — told me the part I actually needed, which answers my own question better than I could: even if this paperwork case goes all the way, even if she's deported over it, every vote she's cast on that floor stays exactly where it was. The acts stand. Nothing about the record moves. I wrote that down twice because I didn't believe it the first time.

Which is what I need the favor on. If the floor record doesn't change — if nothing she's done as a sitting member of Congress gets touched no matter which way the paperwork case comes out — what does Monday morning change? Common Dreams has this raid landing after years of Trump and other Republicans saying, out loud, more than once, that they wanted her deported. Did the warrant come after those years of saying it, or before? The timeline's right there if somebody wants to check it; I did, and it comes after.

I drove the Buick through the toll plaza this morning. The transponder's been iffy since spring, and I always brace a little going through, waiting on the red light, somebody somewhere deciding to open a file on four dollars and an E-ZPass. Nothing happened. It never does. That's the whole arrangement at a toll plaza — you go through, the gate lifts, and the record just sits there, closed, not doing anything to you one way or the other.

Hold on, actually — one more thing, before you put this down. The investigation is into paperwork from when she was a child. The outcome, by the Daily Caller's own account, leaves every vote she's cast as a grown woman in Congress exactly where it was. So whatever Monday morning was about, does the floor record, by their own word, stay undisturbed?

Continued on Page T27

CDC meets 4,400-case measles outbreak with a plan to send one detective.

Measles elimination, the certificate the United States earned in 2000 after decades of vaccination work, is being lived through backward this month, and the nation's reinforcement is one employee.

Pennsylvania's health department counted 903 cases on September 28, after 115 new infections in a single week. By October 3 the count stood at 977, across 39 counties. Two days later it passed 1,004 — the largest outbreak any state has recorded in more than thirty years — and five Pennsylvania residents had already died of it. New York, watching its own numbers rise, declared a state of emergency the same week the national total passed 3,800.

On October 10 the CDC set the national count at 4,080 cases across 47 states and Washington, D.C., with more than a quarter of them in Pennsylvania alone. Today the national count is 4,400. The agency's response, announced this week, is a single "disease detective," who the CDC says it plans to send to Pennsylvania.

One detective, promised to one state, for an outbreak now standing in 47 states and the capital. The staffing was the problem from the start. A disease the country certified gone in 2000 does not come back on malarkey; it comes back when nobody keeps paying the people whose job is to notice it early, county by county, the way Pennsylvania's own dashboard has been doing without federal reinforcement since September.

Measles elimination is survived by every county health office doing its own contact tracing this month, and by the dashboard Pennsylvania keeps updating on its own. It is preceded in death by the assumption, good through early October, that one state's count could not run to a quarter of the nation's; Pennsylvania passed that mark on the 10th. In lieu of flowers, fund the detectives ahead of the outbreak, not after the fourth thousandth case.

Continued on Page H14

Protester interrupts Maine Senate debate about data centers; debate about data centers interrupted by jokes about the protester

THE WRECKING CREW kept the blueprints from last week's job open on the bench. The chief ran the inventory out loud, because the job kept growing drawers. On September 25, Palm Beach County's commission reached into its own code and pulled out permitting authority that had been sitting there the whole time: a 6-0 vote, a one-year moratorium on any data center over 50 megawatts. Memphis had already used a different tool from a different drawer, a zoning fight paired with a primary ballot, to slow down Elon Musk's xAI. Washington State had its own tool, a utility-siting statute that predates this entire fight by years, still sitting on the shelf, never retired. Then two more tools turned up on the bench: Ohio Senator Bernie Moreno's bill to tax local data-center subsidies at 100 percent, and Texas governor candidate Gina Hinojosa's promise of a moratorium of her own if she wins.

Thursday night the job moved to a stage in Maine. The planner stood back and admired how the pieces kept finding each other without anybody planning it: zoning board, primary ballot, utility statute, a tax bill in Congress, a campaign promise in Texas, and now a debate floor. A protester stood up shouting about AI data centers. Security moved to remove them. While they worked, Senator Susan Collins quipped: "So this is obviously one of Troy's supporters." Challenger Troy Jackson snapped back: "Oh, shut up."

The tinkerer looked at what was actually on the table once the noise cleared: no new law, no new statute, nothing built for the occasion. Just an old permitting code, an old zoning map, an old utility statute, a new federal tax bill, and a promise on a gubernatorial trail, all aimed at the same industry from five different directions.

The pilot is the one who gets a story like this to print, and tonight the only cargo worth carrying was the question nobody on that stage asked out loud: which drawer does Maine open next, the one Palm Beach already used, or one nobody's found yet. The tools are out of the box. The industry hasn't been stopped in Maine. It has been stopped in Memphis, Palm Beach County, and the state of Washington, by people who already had what they needed before anyone announced a plan.

Continued on Page A214

Nine agents who probed Trump's classified documents case are fired by his FBI, no cause cited.

Nine names, one case file, and a lawsuit that reads like a document built to answer a single question: why. That is the complaint nine former FBI agents filed this week over their own firings, and answering that question is apparently the hardest part.

All nine worked the investigation into classified documents found at the president's Florida estate. All together now — that is the only fact they share on paper: one case, nine names, nine firings. The complaint does not describe nine separate disputes. It describes one case file walking out the door nine times.

The complaint says what the agency did not say. What the complaint alleges instead is a dismissal tied to the work itself: the investigation, and the fact of having worked on it.

That is not an isolated personnel decision. Nine of those removals now carry a docket number, and a request that a judge read whatever file the agency produces and decide whether it amounts to cause.

The president has called those investigations "political witch hunts," publicly, repeatedly, on the record. That characterization exists in the world. It does not, according to anything the nine plaintiffs have produced, exist on a termination notice. The complaint's claim is narrower, and for that reason harder to wave off: not that the agency gave a bad reason, but that it gave none.

Nine plaintiffs, one shared case file, and a blank line where a reason should be. The lawsuit asks a court to read that blank line as the point. That is the complaint, clause by clause, paragraph by paragraph, and now it is a court's to answer.

Continued on Page B41

Federal officials disband election-threat unit, then investigate powdery letters sent to election offices

There's a sentence in this report I'd like to say something nice about, if I can get there without tripping over the next one. The Guardian published it October 1st. It says, in plain language, that the current administration has abandoned key security bodies meant to investigate direct threats to U.S. elections from foreign actors and domestic terrorists. That's a complete sentence. Subject, verb, object, no hedging. You don't see government writing that clean very often, and I mean that the way it sounds.

Here's the number that gets in the way of admiring it any further: zero. "Abandoned" is the word on the page, past tense, no asterisk next to it, but past tense covering what exactly? I read it twice to make sure I hadn't skimmed past a date and just missed it. I hadn't.

I've got a lock on my garage somebody installed for free a few years back, after a run of break-ins down the block. Lock goes in, the trouble stops, and after a while you forget there was ever a reason for it — it's just there, doing a job you don't think about, until the morning you notice it's gone and you can't put your finger on when it left. Was it there in June? You'd have to ask whoever took it off, and they're not the one who tells you.

What I can tell you is what moved into that space. One day after the report ran — October 2nd — Georgia's State Election Board, Republican-led, sent a letter to the Justice Department. What did it ask for? An investigation into the state's voting systems, additional security measures, a little over a month before the midterms. So the machines got a federal ask, in writing, with a date attached to it.

Two weeks after the report ran, three wire services had something new on the desk. The Guardian's version is specific: Louisiana and Oklahoma received envelopes with a powdery substance and evacuated their offices; a similar package addressed to the Ohio secretary of state was intercepted by the Postal Service before anyone opened it. The BBC confirms all three states by name — Louisiana, Oklahoma, Ohio. CBS's item is shorter: state election officials and congressional offices, unknown substances, and it doesn't name a single state. Three wire services on the same week's story. Two of them name the same three states. One of them, asked to say where, doesn't.

The FBI and the Postal Inspection Service are on the letters now, which is the right agency doing the right job, same as it would be whether or not a different body had stopped doing a related job sometime earlier this year. I'm not going to tell you those two facts are connected, because I don't have a date that lines them up, and neither, as far as I can find, does the report.

Oh — and before I let you go. That sentence I liked so much, the one with the clean subject and the clean verb? Go back and read it one more time. It doesn't say "bodies were allowed to lapse." It doesn't say "oversight lapsed." It names who did it: the administration. Not a passive sentence hiding the actor behind a semicolon — an actor, doing a verb, to an object that used to watch the mail for exactly this. The report already told you who closed it. I just think a sentence that clean is worth reading twice before you fold the page.

Continued on Page A214
“The front page is a ledger with better fonts. Somebody paid, somebody collected, and the flag's up there so you don't ask which one you were.”
— Sal

FOR SALE Hummer H2. Runs great. Parked anyway. I can't afford the fucking gas. — Classifieds

FOR SALE Chest freezer, never opened. Bought during the egg thing. Eggs came down. My planning did not. — Classifieds

PERSONALS Devoted professional, DC. Seeks nothing — the position is filled. "You are all that matters to me." Brings her own printer. Signed, with all my heart. — Classifieds

“A strong edition for people who enjoy being upset. The economy is historic, the deportations are orderly, and the lakes have never been better named. I'm told every story on this page is real, which — frankly, that's the part I'd have fact-checked.”
— Chip
The hens, a man counts in spring. The fox counted in winter.
Enoch · the Ownership Desk

The futures fileevery date somebody set, and what was standing there when it arrived · swept 2026-09-16

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15 further out

The Political Weather

Rain keeps gathering over public opinion this morning, where 57 percent of Americans say their view of the president has worsened since his second term began, matching the largest share this pollster has found in six tries dating back to April of last year. The same survey held his overall approval at a flat 34 percent against 62 disapprove, a net standing of negative 28, colder than his own first term at this same point, negative 10, or his predecessor's, negative 1. Bring an umbrella and a long memory. Back to you, everybody. — Gordy

Economist/YouGov, Oct 10-12, 1,548 adult citizens — 57 percent say their opinion of the president has worsened a lot or a little since his second term began, matching the largest share in a series of six Economist/YouGov polls since April 2025; 34 percent approve of the president overall, 62 percent disapprove, a net approval of negative 28, compared to negative 10 for the president at this same point in his first term and negative 1 for his predecessor at the same point in his term

The temperature is the day’s poll, not ours: the freshest public number on whatever the country was just asked, and it opens its own sources. The season — the president’s approval, averaged and dated — waits behind the temperature until a new wave lands.

The Crossings

The senate card — five of 13 crossDRNorth Carolina — R-held. the call: Democratic flip.NCGeorgia — D-held. the call: Democratic hold.GANew Hampshire — D-held. the call: Democratic hold.NHAlaska — R-held. the call: Democratic flip.AKMichigan — D-held. the call: Democratic hold.MIMinnesota — D-held. the call: Democratic hold.MNTexas — R-held. the call: Democratic flip.TXOhio (special) — R-held. the call: Democratic flip.OHMaine — R-held. the call: Democratic flip.MEKansas — R-held. the call: Republican hold.KSIowa — R-held. the call: Republican hold.IANebraska — R-held. the call: Republican hold.NESouth Carolina — R-held. the call: Republican hold.SCThe house card — seventeen of 23 crossDRCalifornia 22nd — R-held. the call: Democratic flip.New Jersey 7th — R-held. the call: Democratic flip.Pennsylvania 7th — R-held. the call: Democratic flip.Arizona 6th — R-held. the call: Democratic flip.Colorado 8th — R-held. the call: Democratic flip.Pennsylvania 10th — R-held. the call: Democratic flip.Texas 34th — D-held. the call: Democratic hold.Virginia 2nd — R-held. the call: Democratic flip.Washington 3rd — D-held. the call: Democratic hold.Arizona 1st — R-held. the call: Democratic flip.Iowa 1st — R-held. the call: Democratic flip.Iowa 3rd — R-held. the call: Democratic flip.Wisconsin 3rd — R-held. the call: Democratic flip.Florida 25th — D-held. the call: Democratic hold.Ohio 7th — R-held. the call: Democratic flip.Ohio 9th — D-held. the call: Democratic hold.Florida 14th — D-held. the call: Democratic hold.Pennsylvania 8th — R-held. the call: Democratic flip.New York 17th — R-held. the call: Democratic flip.Michigan 10th — R-held. the call: Democratic flip.North Carolina 11th — R-held. the call: Democratic flip.North Carolina 1st — D-held. the call: Democratic hold.Michigan 7th — R-held. the call: Democratic flip.

a dot is a race, colored by who holds the seat today; a dot across the dashed seam is a seat changing hands. The full form: the Politics page.

From each according to his ability, to each according to his needs. Our ability is the link under every claim; your need is to check it. Free, forever. Continued: the serials · the -m edition · the classic front · contact us.