From§Each

FIRST YEAR THURSDAY, 29 OCTOBER 2026 — THE AFTERNOON EDITION FREE, FOREVER — EVERY CLAIM LINKED

Trump carried South Carolina by 18 points; Fox News rated the seat a toss-up with a week left.

photo: The Guardian

South Carolina's safe Republican Senate seat died this week, at the hands of the people paid to take its pulse. It was twenty-eight years old.

It was born in 1998, the last year the state elected a Democrat to the Senate, and it had an easy life after that. Donald Trump carried South Carolina by nearly eighteen points in 2024. The seat belonged to Lindsey Graham, and it is held now by his sister, Darline Graham, with the president's endorsement. For years nobody wrote anything about it, because there was nothing to write.

The decline shows up in the paperwork on September 23, when the Cook Political Report shifted South Carolina toward the Democrats — the same notice that moved Kansas from "likely Republican" to "lean Republican." On October 6, Sabato's Crystal Ball shifted South Carolina toward the Democrats too, in the bulletin that moved Alaska from "toss-up" to "leans Democrat." On October 20, Cook moved South Carolina left a second time. …

Continued on Page B47

§76 —

On roaring back

Democrat

Democrat: the needle points at MINUS 35,000, out of 12,673,000, 12,638,000, 28.5 PERCENT, MINUS 35,000. 12,673,000 12,638,000 28.5 PERCENT MINUS 35,000

How far back. Manufacturing employment was 12,673,000 in January 2025 and 12,638,000 in August 2026 — 35,000 fewer than at the inauguration, after the recovery from December 1. The pipeline for future factory jobs is thinner: spending on manufacturing construction ran at an annual rate of $237.5 billion in January 2025 and $169.8 billion in July 2026, down 28.5 percent 2.

And the trillions. Economists at the Peterson Institute found the investment pledges "clouded with uncertainty," with the Gulf states' "nearly $4 trillion" in commitments ones that "strain credibility" 3. Roaring back was the promise on the day of the tariffs. Seventeen months later the count is still 35,000 short of the day he took office, and the cranes are building less.

Sources

  1. All employees, manufacturing: 12,673,000 in January 2025; 12,638,000 in August 2026 — Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED, series MANEMP, 4 September 2026 ↑
  2. Total manufacturing construction spending, annual rate: $237.5 billion in January 2025; $169.8 billion in July 2026 — Census Bureau via FRED, series TLMFGCONS, 1 September 2026 ↑
  3. The pledges "are clouded with uncertainty"; the Gulf states' "nearly $4 trillion" in commitments "strain credibility" — Peterson Institute for International Economics, 27 January 2026 ↑

“My nephew does his homework on these charts, so I borrowed two. Manufacturing jobs: twelve million six hundred seventy-three thousand in January of last year. Twelve million six hundred thirty-eight thousand this August. And the other chart, the one that shows what's being built, factories under construction: two hundred thirty-seven and a half billion a year, then a hundred sixty-nine point eight. He drew a little arrow on the first chart where it turns up in December, and it does turn up. Sorry, I'm going. If it's roaring back, when does it get back to January?”— Lou

“"Jobs and factories will come roaring back." Rose Garden, April of last year. Since the inauguration, factory jobs are down thirty-five thousand, and spending on building new factories is down twenty-eight and a half percent. To be fair, they've been climbing since December — fifty-eight thousand off the bottom, and the purchasing managers say eight straight months of growth. So the roar is real. It's the sound of climbing back toward where they started.”
Sal
“The jobs are roaring back from the low they reached while they were getting ready to roar, which is how a roar works: first the inhale, then the part everyone hears.”
Chip
The Word today —
Continued on Page W76

Thirty-seven days after agreeing to pay $115 million for underpaying its drivers, DoorDash finds $17 billion for Instacart

September 22, New York City. DoorDash agreed to pay the city $131 million to settle a case over underpaying delivery workers, or waiting too long to pay them. Of that, $115 million is to go directly to the workers who were short-changed. Mayor Zohran Mamdani called it the largest settlement for food delivery workers ever secured in American municipal history. Largest ever is a measurement, not a compliment. It tells you no one has found more money owed to these workers in one place before. That is a fact about the ceiling. It is not a fact about the floor.

Thirty-seven days later, on Thursday, DoorDash announced it will buy Instacart for around $17 billion. The Instacart board approved unanimously. The brand stays. The app stays. Instacart shoppers can keep filling Instacart orders, and grocers can choose which of the two to work with. Nothing is combined. A purchase was announced, and the Federal Trade Commission has it in front of it.

Set the two figures beside each other, since they belong to the same company five weeks apart. One hundred fifteen million dollars for the workers. Seventeen billion dollars for the competitor. Divide and the second is about a hundred and forty-eight times the first.

What the $17 billion buys the customer, according to the companies: 50,000 additional stores. Instacart shoppers will be able to order from 150,000 stores where they could order from 100,000. DoorDash's chief executive said grocery delivery is "one of the hardest things to get right online."

What it buys the company is harder to itemize, because nobody has published that schedule. One date is public. On Wednesday, the day before the announcement, the FTC ordered DoorDash, Instacart and other companies to turn over detailed information about their "use of personal data to set prices and compensation." The agency asked the two companies on Wednesday how they set pay. On Thursday the two companies proposed to become one company. That is a one-day gap, and one day is the count that matters here.

Lee Hepner, senior legal counsel at the American Economic Liberties Project, called the merger brazen and pointed to the investigations both companies face at the state and federal levels. Opponents asked the FTC to block it. Their phrase was "food delivery monopoly."

A settlement is paid once and closes. A network of 150,000 stores is a position, and it does not close. The person carrying the bags up the stairs appears in both documents, hon, on the same line, which is the expense line.

Continued on Page F130

America Next paid an adviser's firm $250,000 for canvassing and influencer marketing; his son heckled El-Sayed

America Next paid Timmy Teepell's firm $250,000 for canvassing and influencer marketing. On October 20 the Guardian reported that the man who had tried to ambush Abdul El-Sayed with a question about his supposed allegiance to the Muslim Brotherhood — an exchange El-Sayed parlayed into a viral clip for his own campaign — is Teepell's son. I am not going to tell you the contract bought the question; the filings do not say that. I will tell you that the contract has two lines, canvassing and influencer marketing, that America Next has been working, the Guardian reports, to gin up organic opposition to El-Sayed, and that influencer marketing is the industry term for a message built to read as though it arrived by itself.

Run the question itself against the record. On October 15 the President called El-Sayed "100% Muslim Brotherhood." The Guardian reported Thursday that the line goes back eight years, to Laura Loomer, who has said since El-Sayed entered politics in 2018 that his signature on a 2012 open letter supporting democracy in Egypt was a pledge to the Egyptian Islamist group. The Guardian read the letter. It does not mention the Muslim Brotherhood once. Mike Rogers has carried the claim through the fall, and on October 26 said he had not called El-Sayed a terrorist, which answers one word and leaves the sentence around it standing.

Thursday the New York Post advanced the file to the candidate's father, who sits on the board of an Islamic charity the FBI once raided over cash sent to Saddam Hussein. Reconciled: a board seat, held by a man who is not on the ballot, at an organization whose troubles predate the campaign by decades.

Wednesday, Representative Haley Stevens said her fiancé would be voting for Rogers; Fox reported he used the word antisemite about El-Sayed and said he endangers Jews. Stevens is still supporting El-Sayed. She called it a household divided, which is a generous reading of a Democratic household supplying the closing argument for the Republican.

Thursday also brought Truthout's accounting of who is paying for the season: billionaires, corporations and AIPAC spending millions against progressive candidates in these midterms. Mehdi Hasan laid out AIPAC's part in this particular race on October 22. The attack lines and the money sit on the same tables.

El-Sayed, meantime, published a plan to put artificial intelligence companies under public ownership — the Guardian's Thursday read calls it an antidote to ideological gridlock. It has gone largely undiscussed, hon. There are five days left, and the only line item anybody has itemized in public is the $250,000.

Continued on Page F130

Pentagon watchdog declines to investigate the Ukraine internet slowdown its contractor already admitted ordering, calling it contractual.

photo: Washington Examiner

Can I come back to something you already straightened out for me? I know you did.

The question was just: who turned it down.

So, the fourteenth. The Guardian, a Wednesday. Common Dreams has the same day under concerns about the government's reliance on one man. And then there's the clip from Thursday the fifteenth. The headline over it reads "Ukraine Blames Elon Musk for Internet Outage Amid Russian Strike." The address of the page itself says Musk suggests Trump is behind the internet outage in Ukraine. Same clip, two names on it. That's the first shape of the answer: you ask who turned it down and you get pointed at the government.

Thursday is also the letter. Four Republican senators signed on — today's Examiner calls the group bipartisan, so take your pick — expressing "grave concern" over Ukraine's sudden loss of access to intelligence-sharing and high-speed Starlink data, which it needs to intercept Russian drones. Here's the part I kept going back over in the shop lot. They asked the inspector general to investigate whether senior Defense officials played a role. Officials. Their word. Not mine, I wouldn't know one from the other.

Ten days on, Saturday the twenty-fourth, Ukraine's military says the connection is stable again. Guardian carries it. And then hours after that announcement — hours — the man who owns the company accuses the Ukrainian military of violating the company's terms. And that same Saturday he says he gave the order. Morning Star has it in Sunday's paper, and I'm reading off the page here: he "admitted on Saturday that he gave the order for his company SpaceX to restrict the speed" on the service in Ukraine. President Zelensky had already said the Starlink and Starshield links were back to the speeds they ran before restrictions that disrupted front-line operations for more than a week. So there's the second shape: the owner says he did it.

Now today. Thursday the twenty-ninth. Five days after that. The inspector general writes back to the lawmakers and declines to open the investigation, and the phrase ABC reports is that it was a contractual matter.

And here's where I'm slow, so bear with me. Last winter the car wouldn't turn over in the cold, so I brought it in. Kid takes it around back, I sit in the lot with the dog and a coffee, and the next morning the thing won't go over twenty-five. First day I call: nobody touched it. Second day: probably your gas. Third day the kid tells me he set it down himself, because I'd been running it wrong, which is in the ticket I signed, apparently. So I ask for the service manager, because what I want is a name — which one of them turned my car down, and whether anybody in that building told him to. And the manager hears me out, very patient, nice man, and tells me it's a contractual matter between me and the shop. He works for the shop.

So I'd like to ask it the third time and then I'll go. The letter asked which Defense officials played a role. Does the sentence that came back name an official? And if the restriction was a contract question, who are the two parties to it — the page says the company owns the service, so who is the other one?

Hold the elevator a second, would you. One thing. The senators asked which officials. The owner says he gave the order himself. Both of those are on paper, in front of me, right here. Which of them is the contractual matter?

Continued on Page A225

Since a senator asked Trump to fire Hegseth: top planner fired, fifth of brass to go, Hegseth staying.

photo: Fox News

Start with the table, because the department does not publish one.

On August 31, The Hill reported the Pentagon was seething over a Washington Post account of a classified assessment: top military leaders had warned Secretary Pete Hegseth against extending large-scale Iran war operations. That is the leak this file has a date on — the one where the warning got out. That was also the day Army Secretary Dan Driscoll announced his resignation, after what The Hill called a months-long turf war with Hegseth. Line one of the ledger, departures column.

Two days later, September 2, Sen. Thom Tillis, Republican of North Carolina and a former member of the Armed Services Committee, asked President Trump to fire Hegseth over what Tillis called "inept management" of the military. Enter that on the other side as a pending item.

On September 10, CBS published an interview Hegseth had given Norah O'Donnell the month before, in which he said "we have all the control in the world" over the outcome of the Iran war and called the devastation to Iran's military capabilities historic. Management, as described by management.

On September 29, The Hill reported the department's plan to cut 20 percent of its admirals and generals. One in five. No list of names has been published.

Which brings us to October 29. Hegseth fired Army Lt. Gen. Brett Sylvia, the Pentagon's top military planner, head of strategy, plans and policy on the Joint Chiefs of Staff, over what a Pentagon official described to CBS as apparent misconduct with classified information on the Iran and Russia-Ukraine wars. Fox News reports Sylvia allegedly failed three polygraph exams tied to classified leaks about the Iran war and Ukraine before the firing.

Three exams. Run them against the calendar, since three is a number and numbers go in a column. The receipts date one leak: the August 31 report that the generals had told the secretary not to extend the operation. Fifty-nine days from that report to this firing, three exams somewhere inside them. The receipts draw no line between the two, and neither do I. I am noting what the file contains, hon, which is one dated leak and one officer out.

Now total the columns. Departures since August 31: one Army secretary, one top military planner, one-fifth of the admirals and generals on the department's own plan. Requests to remove the secretary: one, from a senator of his own party, outstanding fifty-seven days.

The department calls this accountability. It is running in the direction that costs the secretary nothing.

Continued on Page F130

Investigative Reporting

WHO PICKS THE JUDGE

Chapter 1: The Spit Tube

Pick up the box. You ordered it online, or somebody gave it to you for a birthday, and inside it is a plastic tube. You spit into the tube, which takes longer than you expect, you seal it, and you send it back. Some weeks later a website shows you a list of people you have never met, each with a guess beside the name: second cousin, third cousin, distant relative. Now — hold the stranger at the top of that list, because the stranger is not the end of the road. The stranger is a door. I know where it opens. Not yet. The tube first, because one company that sells them by the million has had to describe them in a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, where adjectives cost money.…

Continued on the Investigative Reporting page

THE FILE

Probe Obama opened in 2016, Biden's appointee closed in 2021, Trump reopened six days before the vote

I keep a copy of this file on the desk because it is the rare federal document that has survived three administrations without producing a single charge.

All together now, in order, because the order is the whole story.

2016: the FBI opens an investigation into whether Rep. Ilhan Omar married a man suspected of being her brother. Fox News filed that beat today. The New York Times filed the next clause the same day: several current and former law enforcement officials said the Obama-era investigation found some evidence of a sham marriage. Note the adjective on "Obama-era." It is doing a great deal of work and it is accurate.

2021: a Biden-appointed attorney closes it. Fox reports the opening and the closing in the same breath, which is a courtesy to anyone keeping a ledger.

12 October 2026: federal immigration agents search Omar's home in Washington. CBS News reported the probe centers on her childhood immigration paperwork — the forms completed by her late father, when she was a child. France 24 filed the raid the same week; Omar called it political intimidation by the government's own institutions.

23 October: a Justice Department court filing refers to the congresswoman as "Ilhan Nur Said Elmi," without explanation. The president posted that her name is not her name. Her answer, on the record: "My name has always been Ilhan Omar." By last week the live legal question was not a charge at all but whether the public may read the warrant that authorized the search — a fight now in front of the same judge the president once called a radical left lunatic and wanted impeached.

Back up five days to 18 October, line by line. Obama writes that the effort to strip her citizenship and remove her from the country is "so appalling," and that the government "can't selectively target individuals simply because of their political beliefs or what they say." The file he is describing is the file his FBI opened in 2016. Both sentences are true at the same time. That is the document's entire trick: it has outlasted the administration that started it, the administration that stopped it, and the explanation each one gave.

Today's last clause is the quietest. Rep. Pramila Jayapal circulated a letter asking that the probe be ended. Nearly 40 House Democrats did not sign it. Fox News lists Nancy Pelosi and Steny Hoyer among the non-signers.

So: ten years, three administrations, one search, no one charged, and a letter nearly forty members found easier not to put a pen to. The paper underneath all of it was filled out by a father for a daughter who was a child. Six days from now, it remains the most durable object in Washington.

Continued on Page A225

THE INVESTIGATIONS

Governor opens criminal probe into the one Alaska candidate whose win a federal suit seeks to void

Three instruments in seven days, and every one of them points the same way. On 23 October the Department of Justice went into federal court to stop Alaska certifying its Senate result — if the Republican incumbent does not win. Only then. A condition precedent, you see, and the condition is a Republican defeat. Senator Tillis said on Sunday that the outcome was "appropriate to take a look at." On Wednesday Senator Scott asked that same Department to investigate Mary Peltola's campaign. On Thursday Governor Dunleavy directed the Department of Public Safety to determine "whether this scheme violated Alaska's laws and whether criminal charges or civil action are warranted." Two men named Dan Sullivan sit on that ballot, one of them the sitting senator, and the count every one of these documents concerns has not happened ... nor has a single page of it been turned the other way. Peltola denied the allegations. The Washington Examiner had the whole affair on 31 August, before anything was filed anywhere. Alaska votes Tuesday. Six days.

Continued on Page B47

Sanctions waiver meant to cut diesel prices leaves automakers paying more for diesel.

The filing starts in September, before Russia even enters this ledger. On September seventeenth the Transportation Department gave diesel truckers a ninety-day waiver to drive up to sixteen hours a day, because, the department said, fuel costs were already running high on account of the war in Iran. That is one war, already blamed, three weeks before the war we are discussing today gets its turn.

On October sixth the White House tried the supply side again, this time from the other end: the president announced steps to widen access to red-dyed, tax-exempt diesel, aimed at bringing the retail number down. Two days later the number had not moved. The Washington Examiner reported on October eighth that the diesel average kept climbing despite the administration's own order suspending diesel fuel tax payments. The fix shipped. The price did not follow it out the door.

Two days after that, on October tenth, the administration reached for Russian diesel directly and lifted the sanctions on it, the fuel this desk has been pricing since the war in Ukraine began. President Zelensky objected, on the record, to buying from refineries he is also being told not to strike, and was advised to find his country a new president. The waiver carried the same stated purpose as the tax order and the truck-hour order before it: bring the number down for the driver paying at the pump.

Twelve days after that waiver, on October twenty-second, Senator Roger Marshall of Kansas told the record the cause, no equivocation: the war in Ukraine is why diesel costs what it costs. The senator did not reconcile that against his own party's calendar — three federal interventions in five weeks, none of them Ukrainian, all of them built to bring that same number down.

The invoice arrived this week, October twenty-ninth, from the people who buy the fuel by the fleet. NPR reported that American automakers are paying more for computer chips, steel and copper, plus the diesel that moves the finished product — and the wire's own headline led with tariffs, not Ukraine. Since the September high of five dollars and eighty-five cents, the national diesel average has added another sixty-three cents, to six-forty-eight, across three domestic fixes sold as the cure. That gap lands in the invoice of the same voters the waiver was sold to, hon — the drivers, the dealers, and now the people who build the trucks.

Continued on Page F129
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“Count the times this page says "historic," then count the ones with a number next to them. The difference is the news.”
— Sal

FOR SALE Military parade, gently used, one afternoon. $45 million, plus $16 million in street repair. Six in ten said don't. We did. — Classifieds

FOR SALE Frontier AI, government price: one dollar. The first one's free. You know what we call that. — Classifieds

FOR SALE Eight straight failed Pentagon audits, one careful owner. Payment plan: another budget increase. — Classifieds

“The economy is historic, the process is ongoing, and the timeline is the timeline. Beyond that I refer you to the timeline.”
— Chip
Snow held the fox's prints till the thaw, while the farmer mended the door.
Enoch · the Ownership Desk

The futures fileevery date somebody set, and what was standing there when it arrived · swept 2026-09-16

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19 further out

The Political Weather

Rain floods the checkout line again this morning, where 73 percent of adults disapprove of the way the president is handling inflation and rising prices, his worst mark of any issue this survey tested, worse even than his marks on the cost of living, 72 percent, and the economy, 66. The same five-day read held Democrats nine points up on the generic ballot for Congress, 53 to 44 among likely voters. Bring an umbrella and a wheelbarrow for the receipt. Back to you, everybody. — Gordy

Reuters/Ipsos, Oct 22-26, 1,679 adults — 73 percent of adults disapprove of the president's handling of inflation and rising prices, 19 percent approve, 6 percent don't know, 2 percent skipped, the highest disapproval of any issue tested in the survey; disapproval of his handling of the cost of living is 72 percent, of the economy 66 percent; among likely voters, 53 percent back the Democratic candidate for Congress, 44 percent the Republican, 2 percent another party, 2 percent skipped, a nine-point Democratic lead

The temperature is the day’s poll, not ours: the freshest public number on whatever the country was just asked, and it opens its own sources. The season — the president’s approval, averaged and dated — waits behind the temperature until a new wave lands.

The Crossings

The senate card — eight of 14 crossDRGeorgia — D-held. the call: Democratic hold.GANorth Carolina — R-held. the call: Democratic flip.NCNew Hampshire — D-held. the call: Democratic hold.NHOhio (special) — R-held. the call: Democratic flip.OHMichigan — D-held. the call: Democratic hold.MITexas — R-held. the call: Democratic flip.TXAlaska — R-held. the call: Democratic flip.AKMinnesota — D-held. the call: Democratic hold.MNMaine — R-held. the call: Democratic flip.MESouth Carolina — R-held. the call: Republican hold.SCKansas — R-held. the call: Republican hold.KSIowa — R-held. the call: Republican hold.IANebraska — R-held. the call: Republican hold.NEMississippi — R-held. the call: Republican hold.MSThe house card — seventeen of 23 crossDRVirginia 2nd — R-held. the call: Democratic flip.Wisconsin 3rd — R-held. the call: Democratic flip.New Jersey 7th — R-held. the call: Democratic flip.California 22nd — R-held. the call: Democratic flip.Iowa 3rd — R-held. the call: Democratic flip.Texas 34th — D-held. the call: Democratic hold.Iowa 1st — R-held. the call: Democratic flip.Pennsylvania 10th — R-held. the call: Democratic flip.Washington 3rd — D-held. the call: Democratic hold.Pennsylvania 7th — R-held. the call: Democratic flip.Arizona 6th — R-held. the call: Democratic flip.Pennsylvania 8th — R-held. the call: Democratic flip.North Carolina 11th — R-held. the call: Democratic flip.Colorado 8th — R-held. the call: Democratic flip.Florida 25th — D-held. the call: Democratic hold.North Carolina 1st — D-held. the call: Democratic hold.Ohio 7th — R-held. the call: Democratic flip.Florida 14th — D-held. the call: Democratic hold.Arizona 1st — R-held. the call: Democratic flip.Ohio 9th — D-held. the call: Democratic hold.New York 17th — R-held. the call: Democratic flip.Michigan 7th — R-held. the call: Democratic flip.Michigan 10th — R-held. the call: Democratic flip.

a dot is a race, colored by who holds the seat today; a dot across the dashed seam is a seat changing hands. The full form: the Politics page.

From each according to his ability, to each according to his needs. Our ability is the link under every claim; your need is to check it. Free, forever. Continued: the serials · the -m edition · the classic front · contact us.