Page W18From§Each1 September 2026
§18 —
On the neighbor
Democrat
NEIGHBORS
You know what I kept thinking about, driving over? The neighbor. The tariff regime costs American households about $1,100 a year, and the bottom tenth pays nearly three times the top's share of income 1. Lumber alone — Canada supplies 85 percent of imported softwood — adds an estimated $10,900 to a new house 2. Kentucky's second-largest export market for spirits fell to sixth, shipments down two-thirds 3. I don't drink much, but I know people who do, and they had opinions.
And the neighbors stopped coming by: return crossings fell 25.4 percent last year, $3.3 billion in spending gone with them, the deepest sustained non-pandemic drop Statistics Canada has on record 4. A border that took two centuries to make boring took eighteen months to make interesting. I'm going to want to talk to whoever asked for it to be interesting. Later. There's no rush.
Sources
- The state of US tariffs: ~$1,100 per household, regressive by decile — Yale Budget Lab, 11 August 2026 ↑
- Combined lumber duties near 45%; builders put the cost at $10,900 per home — NAHB, 12 September 2025 ↑
- Kentucky bourbon's Canadian market falls from second to sixth — WKYT, 20 July 2026 ↑
- Canadian return crossings down 25.4% in 2025, $3.3B less spent — Statistics Canada, 22 July 2026 ↑
Republican
PAPERWORK
I've been going over the paperwork, which is most of what I do, and I want to make sure I have the order right. July: 50 percent tariffs on select Canadian goods under a 1930 statute that had waited ninety-six years for its first use 1. August 18, two hours before the deadline: paused — "we have a deal," pending paperwork, Canadian farm tariffs to be "totally eviscerated down to zero" 2. Three days later: the demands grew, the talks died, the tariffs took effect at 12:01 a.m. on the 22nd against roughly $28 billion of goods, and the prime minister said "You're at war when you get attacked. We got attacked," with dollar-for-dollar retaliation dated for September 3. Three days. I'm not saying anything by that; I just noticed it's three.
And then the original reason, which I almost missed: 43 pounds of fentanyl crossed the northern border in fiscal 2024 — 0.2 percent of the total — and the Supreme Court struck the emergency route 6-3, which is why everything now runs through 1930 4. Forty-three pounds. I wrote it in the margin. It seemed like a small number for the size of the paperwork, but what do I know.
Sources
- First-ever use of Section 338: 50% tariffs on select Canadian products — White & Case, 20 July 2026 ↑
- Two hours before midnight, the tariffs pause: "we have a deal" — CNN, 18 August 2026 ↑
- The deal collapses; tariffs take effect; Carney: "We got attacked" — NPR, 22 August 2026 ↑
- The fentanyl-emergency tariffs struck down 6-3; the northern border's 43 pounds — Supreme Court / CNN fact check, 20 February 2026 ↑
“I have it here — you said 'we have a deal.' August 18, two hours before midnight. Just a second... and three days later, right here, the neighbor says 'we got attacked.' Fifty percent tariffs, under a 1930 statute used for the first time. And this page — about $1,100 a year per household, the bottom tenth paying nearly three times that. Sorry, I know you're in a hurry, this is the last thing. The deal lasted three days. What lasts?”— Lou
“The tariff lasts. The deal was the commercial break. Fifty percent on a neighbor under a law from 1930 isn't a negotiation, it's furniture — and you're paying the delivery fee.”
“What lasts is our resolve. The deal was real, the collapse was real, and both prove the strategy: a deal that lasts three days is a deal that respected its deadline. That came out wrong. Print it anyway.”