§60 —
On 145 percent
Democrat
TACO
The folds, in order, with the paperwork. May 2025: 145 percent became 30 under a 90-day Geneva truce 1. October 30: the 100 percent threat was dropped at the summit with Xi and the existing China tariffs were cut 2. The White House's own fact sheet lists the terms: the fentanyl tariff down ten points; the reciprocal-tariff suspension extended to November 10, 2026; China to suspend its rare-earth controls for one year; soybean purchases resumed 3.
Then a fold that was not his. On February 20 the Supreme Court held, 6 to 3, that the emergency statute behind these tariffs does not authorize them, voiding both the reciprocal tariffs and the fentanyl tariffs on China 4. Within hours the White House terminated them and imposed 10 percent under a different law, opening fresh investigations to build the rest back 5. So the American half of the bargain was struck down in February. The half still standing is China's: the rare-earth suspension, one year from November 10, 2025.
It runs out November 10, 2026. The election is November 3.
Sources
- 145 percent cut to 30 percent under a 90-day truce reached in Geneva — PBS NewsHour, May 2025 ↑
- The 100 percent threat dropped at the Trump–Xi summit; a one-year truce and a cut to existing China tariffs — CNBC, 30 October 2025 ↑
- Fentanyl tariff cut ten points effective 10 November 2025; reciprocal-tariff suspension to 10 November 2026; China suspends rare-earth controls one year; soybean purchases — White House fact sheet, 1 November 2025 ↑
- The Supreme Court held 6-3 on 20 February 2026 that IEEPA does not authorize tariffs, invalidating the reciprocal tariffs and the fentanyl-related tariffs on China, Canada and Mexico — Congressional Research Service, LSB11398 ↑
- The IEEPA tariffs were terminated after the decision; a 10 percent global tariff was imposed under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 and new Section 301 investigations opened — White & Case ↑
Republican
OVER AND ABOVE
The strongest version of the case, in the president's words on October 10, 2025, because the escalation was an argument: China had "taken an extraordinarily aggressive position on Trade in sending an extremely hostile letter to the World, stating that they were going to, effective November 1st, 2025, impose large scale Export Controls on virtually every product they make," and the answer would be a 100 percent tariff "over and above any Tariff they are currently paying," plus export controls "on any and all critical software" 1. The S&P 500 fell 2.71 percent that day 1.
That is the doctrine at full strength: they restrict the rare earths, we restrict everything, and the number is the message. It was the second time the number had been the message; in April of last year the rate on Chinese goods reached 145 percent 2. "Over and above" is where the dial stops because the dial has nowhere further to go, and that turns out to be the problem with the dial.
Sources
- Truth Social, 10 October 2025: China's "extremely hostile letter," export controls "effective November 1st," a 100 percent tariff "over and above any Tariff they are currently paying," controls "on any and all critical software"; S&P 500 down 2.71 percent — CNN, 10 October 2025 ↑
- Tariffs on Chinese goods escalated to 145 percent in April 2025, then cut to 30 percent under the Geneva truce — PBS NewsHour, May 2025 ↑
“I'll be quick, you've got people waiting. 145 — that's April of last year. 30 — that's May, Geneva. 100, "over and above" — that's October 10, and the index lost two point seven percent by the close. Dropped — that's October 30, at the summit, with a tariff cut thrown in. Then a year of quiet, and the year ends November 10. Oh — one more thing. The election is November 3. Who set that clock?”— Lou
“A hundred and forty-five percent, then thirty. Then a hundred more, "over and above," effective November 1, and by October 30 it's a one-year truce and a tariff cut. The number isn't a policy, it's an opening bid he makes against himself. And the truce expires November 10 — a week after the vote — so the next bid is already on the calendar.”
“One hundred forty-five percent was strength, thirty was flexibility, one hundred was resolve, and dropping it was statesmanship — four different virtues, which is more than most administrations manage on a single country.”