THE FLIP

1AlaskaR-heldSullivan (R), incumbent, running — ranked-choice general

The call — Democratic flip. Both polls that ran the ranked-choice count end with her ahead, and the only two that have him in front were taken by Republican houses. Sabato moved the seat to her side on the sixth; no rater has moved it back toward him all cycle. The needle edges in one; the call stands.

2GeorgiaD-heldOssoff (D), incumbent, running

The call — Democratic hold. No poll since the last sweep that the form has not already counted; the four before it are all his by eight or more, two of them from Republican houses. At the first debate on the eighth the challenger said of racism and antisemitism, "I don't care where the source is. It's wrong." The second is on the thirteenth, the day early voting opens. The call and the needle hold.

3IowaR-heldOPEN — Ernst (R) DEPARTED (retiring)

The call — Republican hold. Nineteen polls and the lead has changed hands nine times since mid-September; the two newest from independent houses have her up two, and Suffolk has him up four. The market has not moved a cent in a month. The call stays with the cash, which is now fifty-three million dollars of it, and the needle stays a point off the middle.

4KansasR-heldMarshall (R), incumbent, running

The call — Republican hold. Eight polls since mid-September and the incumbent leads none; the market added four cents in four days, Cook moved the seat twice in thirteen, and the Republican super PAC pulled money out of North Carolina to spend it in Kansas. The call still sits on the forty-year record and a market that prices him at sixty-two. The needle moves three to the last point before the seam; the form said on October 6 that if the polls are right the call is wrong, and eight polls later they have not changed their answer.

5MaineR-heldCollins (R), incumbent, running

The call — Democratic flip. Two polls since the last sweep, both independent, both the challenger by four; the market came back three. Most of Marist's own voters expect the incumbent to win anyway, which is the record talking. The needle moves two. The call holds the flip by a little more than the width of a coin.

6MichiganD-heldOPEN — Peters (D) DEPARTED (retiring)

The call — Democratic hold. He still leads every poll but one, and the one is a tie; the two newest are both by a point, and the market took five cents off him. The empty podium of September is filled: Rogers came to the debate on the eighth and called his opponent "the best con I think I've ever seen." The second is the twenty-first. The needle comes back four to sit on the price. The call holds.

7MinnesotaD-heldOPEN — Smith (D) DEPARTED (retiring)

The call — Democratic hold. A four-point lead from the first non-Republican house in five weeks, among registered voters, with twelve percent undecided. The market went back up two. Still the widest split on the board between the paper and the price; the needle moves one. Flanagan skipped KSTP's debate; the one joint debate is on MPR on the sixteenth.

8NebraskaR-heldRicketts (R), incumbent, running

The call — Republican hold. The independent poll answered the Republican one: Osborn by one, a week after co/efficient had Ricketts by five. Three of the last five have the independent in front, and the market has not moved off twenty-eight. The needle takes back three of the four it gave up. The call follows the market and flags the gap again — he has to win, not just poll, and the owner is still riding his own horse.

9New HampshireD-heldOPEN — Shaheen (D) DEPARTED (retiring)

The call — Democratic hold. Six polls since mid-September and all six his, by five to eight. Cook moved the seat into Toss Up on the fifteenth of September and back out on the sixth of October. The market is at ninety. The needle moves two. Cook is the one rater on the card to have moved the same race both ways inside three weeks.

10North CarolinaR-heldOPEN — Tillis (R) DEPARTED (retired)

The call — Democratic flip. Fourteen polls, fourteen leads, and the Republican super PAC that was spending the most money on this seat has stopped spending it. Cook moved the race to Likely D on the sixth. The needle moves one, because there was not much room left to move.

11Ohio (special)R-heldHusted (R), appointed incumbent — the Vance seat, term through January 2029

The call — Democratic flip. Thirteen of fourteen polls since September opened are his; the fourteenth, from a Republican house, has Husted up one, and the market took three cents off Brown on it. Ninety-three million dollars of one super PAC is in this state, more than in any other. The needle gives back two. The call holds.

12South CarolinaR-heldDarline Graham (R), appointed incumbent, running — appointed Jul 13 after Sen. Lindsey Graham died Jul 11

The call — Republican hold. Four polls from Republican houses since the runoff, and all four have the appointed senator ahead, by one to five; the one independent read had the Democrat up one. The market prices the challenger at fifteen cents in a state the president carried by eighteen. The call is the hold. The needle sits fifteen over the price, because every house that has polled this race since the runoff finds it inside five.

13TexasR-heldOPEN in fact — Cornyn (R) UNSEATED in his own runoff

The call — Democratic flip. Twenty-two polls this cycle; he has trailed two, both paid for by the other side. The money arrived since August, a hundred seventy-five million dollars of it on the other side, and the market came off three cents to meet it. On the seventh the president said the Republican should report to a debate stage; the Republican has accepted none. The needle gives back one.

1Arizona 1stR-heldOPEN - Schweikert (R) DEPARTED, running for governor

The call — Democratic flip. An open seat, a returning nominee who beat his own party's establishment pick to get here, and still not one public poll of the race. What moved since the last sweep is the raters: Cook took the seat to Lean D on September 25, and the market followed it up seven cents. The call sits where it did, a little further in; the receipts are a rating and a price, and the form says so.

2Arizona 6thR-heldCiscomani (R), incumbent, running

The call — Democratic flip. Eighty-one cents against an incumbent who still holds the cash edge, and a challenger who has out-raised him $7.35M to $6.17M on the cycle. No public poll since March; the needle takes three cents off the market for that silence.

3California 22ndR-heldValadao (R), incumbent, running

The call — Democratic flip. The new lines were drawn out from under the holder and the market keeps walking away from him — eighty-four in August, ninety now. A sixteen-point Democratic registration edge after Prop 50, and one rater has already moved. No poll since June, which is the only reason the needle is not higher.

4Colorado 8thR-heldEvans (R), incumbent, running

The call — Democratic flip. The photo-finish district, 2,449 votes last time. The one poll since the last sweep is the incumbent's sponsor's and has him up two; the market read it and moved three cents the other way, to eighty-seven. The call holds its ground and gives back two on the needle for the poll, because a sponsored poll is still a poll.

5Florida 25thD-heldMoskowitz (D), incumbent, running, on a redrawn seat

The call — Democratic hold. Redrawn nine points against him and still seventy cents. The Trump-funded PAC has reserved $6.76 million here, more than in any other House race in the country, and the Congressional Leadership Fund has reserved more here than anywhere else too. When both of them pick the same district to spend the most money in, that is a compliment to the incumbent.

6Iowa 1stR-heldMiller-Meeks (R), incumbent, running

The call — Democratic flip. Third consecutive matchup, 799 votes the last one, and the challenger holds more cash than the incumbent this time. The complication the August form did not carry: Michael Bridgford is on the ballot with no party label and took 11 percent in July's poll, which is a lot of room in a race decided by 799 votes.

7Iowa 3rdR-heldNunn (R), incumbent, running

The call — Democratic flip. Seventy-six cents and no public poll of this race since March. The national lean does the work the polling is not here to do, and the needle sits a cent under the market to say so.

8Michigan 7thR-heldBarrett (R), incumbent, running

The call — Democratic flip. The steepest fall on the card, sixty-seven cents to fifty-six, and the thinnest Democratic price left on it. Fox News published documents this month showing the challenger was charged in 2013 after chaining himself to pipeline machinery; he says the conviction was expunged. The DCCC added him to Red to Blue two days before that ran. Called by a nose and flagged as one.

9New Jersey 7thR-heldKean Jr. (R), incumbent, running

The call — Democratic flip. The best-documented race on the House card: the only independent poll of the twenty-three had the challenger up five in September, Sabato moved the seat on the 16th, Cook on the 25th, and the market added ten cents in a month — the largest gain on the card. The needle moves with all four. The incumbent's job approval in his own district reads 37 against 60.

10New York 17thR-heldLawler (R), incumbent, running

The call — Democratic flip. Two polls in one week: the independent one has her up two, his own has him up three, both inside their margins, and the market did not move. A coin on its edge, priced at sixty-two cents for the challenger. The call stays where the price is, and says so.

11Ohio 7thR-heldMax Miller (R), incumbent, running

The call — Democratic flip. Still the strangest price on the board — seventy-eight cents in a seat the presidential line carried by eleven — and still a price built on four August polls and nothing since. Two things have happened since, and both cut the other way: the Ethics Committee's sixty-day deadline expired on September 4 with no findings and no recommended punishment, and the NRCC put $450,000 behind the incumbent three days later. The needle discounts the price by eight and prints why.

12Ohio 9thD-heldKaptur (D), incumbent, running, her twenty-second term on the ballot

The call — Democratic hold. Twenty-two terms, a rematch she won by 2,382, and now a tie — in her own party's poll, which is the kind that gets released when the alternative is worse. The market split on it: up two at Kalshi, down four at Polymarket. The needle comes back four and the call holds, on the cash and the record.

13Pennsylvania 7thR-heldMackenzie (R), incumbent, running

The call — Democratic flip. The first independent poll of the race has the challenger up five, on 357 voters and a margin of nearly six — the lead fits inside it. Sabato moved the seat to Leans D five days later and the market added six cents. The call was already here; the receipts caught up.

14Pennsylvania 8thR-heldBresnahan (R), incumbent, running

The call — Democratic flip. Corrected from the same transposition: this was 67.5 cents in August, not 76, so the month is a two-cent drift and not a collapse. The mayor still holds more cash than the incumbent in a Trump-plus-eight district. An ethics complaint over a taxpayer-funded video aired as campaign advertising has been filed against the incumbent; a complaint is not a finding, and this form waits for findings.

15Pennsylvania 10thR-heldPerry (R), incumbent, running, seventh term sought

The call — Democratic flip. A rematch decided by 5,133 votes. Franklin & Marshall has the challenger up three on 390 voters, and 61-29 among the independents. The market did not move a cent on it, because eighty was already the price. The call stays.

16Texas 34thD-heldV. Gonzalez (D), incumbent, running, on a redrawn seat

The call — Democratic hold. Redrawn ten points against him and Sabato moved the seat toward him anyway, to Leans D on the tenth — the only rating move among these eleven. The form quotes the book at 81 rather than Kalshi's last printed trade at 88, because a trade nobody will honour is not a price.

17Virginia 2ndR-heldKiggans (R), incumbent, running

The call — Democratic flip. Unmoved in August and September; moved now. Sabato took the seat to Leans D on the 29th and the market added four cents. The only poll of the race is still July's tie, sponsored. The needle edges in on the rating alone and the form says that is what it edged on.

18Washington 3rdD-heldGluesenkamp Perez (D), incumbent, running

The call — Democratic hold. The highest Democratic price on the card and the first public poll with her behind: two points, eleven undecided, a point with leaners pushed. Both public polls this cycle have the challenger a nose ahead; the market has her at eighty-nine. The needle comes back nine toward the polls and the call holds — the market has been right about her twice before, and the form is not sure it is this time.

19Wisconsin 3rdR-heldVan Orden (R), incumbent, running

The call — Democratic flip. Unmoved in a month. Third run, the biggest challenger fundraising haul on the card, a rematch priced at seventy-three. The last public poll was fielded in late June by her own campaign's pollster, which is another way of saying there has been no poll.

20Florida 14thD-heldCastor (D), incumbent, running; Sabato-only entry, on a redrawn seat

The call — Democratic hold. Cook moved this seat to Toss Up on August 25, one day after the last sweep — so the August form's headline, the widest rater split on the card, was already wrong when it printed. Cook's house editor said the new lines run 55-44 Trump and the incumbent looks fine regardless. The market came down five to meet the rating coming up. Held.

21Michigan 10thR-heldOPEN - James (R) DEPARTED, running for governor; Sabato-only entry

The call — Democratic flip. REVERSED FROM THE AUGUST CALL, and the reason is this form's own error: the August card entered the Republican-side price in the Democratic column and then called the race for the Republican on the strength of it. The market had the Democrat at 61.5 cents that day and has him at 66 now. Cook moved the seat to Toss Up on August 25. The only poll, taken in August and Democratic-sponsored, had it tied. The call follows the corrected price.

22North Carolina 1stD-heldDon Davis (D), incumbent, running; Sabato-only entry, on a redrawn seat

The call — Democratic hold. Now the thinnest price on the card. Drawn eleven and a half points redder, holding two-to-one cash, and a Democratic-sponsored poll has him up seven in a district whose own respondents recall Trump by eight. A third rater, Inside Elections, moved to Tilt R on the seventeenth. The hardest hold on the card, called again, by less than it was called by in August.

23North Carolina 11thR-heldINCUMBENT OFF THE BALLOT - Edwards (R) ended his campaign Aug 5; Sabato-only entry

The call — Democratic flip. The seat whose holder left it after the Ethics report. One poll, sponsored, had the Democrat up three in September; Cook took the seat off the Republican side on the 25th; the market is up five. The needle follows the rater and the price, not far, in a district drawn for the other party.