From§Each

THE FLIP

Past performances · the 2026 midterms · post time November 3, 8 PM Eastern

The form prints. The selections box picks. You argue. Every number below is a receipt; the raters everyone else follows are one demoted line per race; the call that leads each race is the paper’s own, graded November 3, and the full form folds open under it.

The senate card — five of 12 crossDRMinnesota — D-held. the call: Democratic hold.MNNorth Carolina — R-held. the call: Democratic flip.NCNew Hampshire — D-held. no call posted; the dot sits at the market's spot.NHGeorgia — D-held. the call: Democratic hold.GAMichigan — D-held. the call: Democratic hold.MIMaine — R-held. the call: Democratic flip.MEAlaska — R-held. the call: Democratic flip.AKTexas — R-held. the call: Democratic flip.TXOhio (special) — R-held. the call: Democratic flip.OHIowa — R-held. the call: Republican hold.IANebraska — R-held. the call: Republican hold.NEKansas — R-held. the call: Republican hold.KSThe house card — sixteen of 23 crossDRWashington 3rd — D-held. the call: Democratic hold.Arizona 6th — R-held. the call: Democratic flip.California 22nd — R-held. the call: Democratic flip.New Jersey 7th — R-held. the call: Democratic flip.Pennsylvania 10th — R-held. the call: Democratic flip.Virginia 2nd — R-held. the call: Democratic flip.Iowa 3rd — R-held. the call: Democratic flip.Texas 34th — D-held. the call: Democratic hold.Colorado 8th — R-held. the call: Democratic flip.Pennsylvania 8th — R-held. the call: Democratic flip.Arizona 1st — R-held. the call: Democratic flip.Iowa 1st — R-held. the call: Democratic flip.Ohio 9th — D-held. the call: Democratic hold.Ohio 7th — R-held. the call: Democratic flip.Wisconsin 3rd — R-held. the call: Democratic flip.Florida 25th — D-held. the call: Democratic hold.New York 17th — R-held. the call: Democratic flip.Pennsylvania 7th — R-held. the call: Democratic flip.Florida 14th — D-held. the call: Democratic hold.Michigan 7th — R-held. the call: Democratic flip.North Carolina 1st — D-held. the call: Democratic hold.North Carolina 11th — R-held. the call: Democratic flip.Michigan 10th — R-held. the call: Republican hold.
The Senate — 53 R, 45 D, 2 I caucusing with the Democrats. 51 controls. The selections box lands the Democratic side at 51, the Republican at 48, 1 race still on the card. §
The House — 218 R, 212 D, 1 I caucusing with the Republicans, 4 seats vacant, hollow. 218 controls. The selections box lands the Democratic side at 227, the Republican at 208. §
And eight seats cross at the far ends of this axis without a real race — five drawn red, three drawn blue in the map rooms; they ride inside the chalk. §

a dot is a race, colored by who holds the seat today · it sits where the paper’s needle says the seat lands (gold: no call yet — the market’s spot) · a dot across the dashed seam is a seat changing hands

Track conditions

Scratched, not buried: Florida special (Moody) — Sabato moved it Likely R to Safe R, Aug 19 — off the card by the printed rule § · Montana (open, Daines) — Sabato moved it Safe R, Aug 12 — scratched, not buried §

THE KEY — ML: the raters’ line, demoted on purpose. PAST: certified margins; ~turnout means a two-figure transcription, canvass check pending. BARN: the candidates’ own FEC filings, via the named outlet. TOTE: the prediction market’s price, dated — see Finance for who owns the tote. SPEED: certified primary ballots from our thirty-state table. DEPARTED: retired. PENDING: a labeled blank, which on a form is information. THE CALL: the line that leads each race — the paper’s own pick, carrying no source link because a pick is voice, not evidence; the form folded under it holds the receipts it answers to, each racing label wearing its plain-English twin. THE LEAN: the bar over each fold — blue left, red right; the ink needle is the paper’s own read of how far the race swings, rendered as position and never a printed number, and the thin line is the market’s price, dated in the form. Where needle and line split, the paper is telling you it disagrees with the money. Graded November 3.
THE SENATE CARD, twelve races by the printed rule; the whole-track tote prices a Republican hold near 61c. The two chambers' totes disagree, and the form prints the disagreement. §

1AlaskaR-heldSullivan (R), incumbent, running — ranked-choice general

The call — Democratic flip. The market leans her, the money raised runs two-to-one hers, and she led the open primary by five and a half; the ranked-choice count decides it from there.

DR
Open the form — 7 sourced lines
  • Morning linethe ratersToss Up (Cook, Aug 20) · Toss-up (Sabato, moved Jun 11) §
  • Past performanceshow it ran before2024 Pres R+13.1 · 2020 Sen Sullivan R+12.7 (~354K cast) · 2014 Sen Sullivan R+2.2 (~285K) §
  • The barn (FEC)the candidates' moneyPeltola (D): $18.5M this cycle per FEC through the pre-primary report, $6.1M on hand at June 30; Sullivan (R): $9.1M cycle per FEC, $8.3M on hand. §
  • Late moneyoutside moneyThe whole meet: $56M-plus raised or reserved on one Alaska race — Senate Leadership Fund $17M for Sullivan, Senate Majority PAC ~$12.6M for Peltola, $35M already burned on TV. §
  • The totethe betting marketD 54c Kalshi · D 55c Polymarket (Aug 24) §
  • Class & equipmentthe fieldAug 18 top-four primary: Peltola 48.1, Sullivan 42.7; fourth slot too close to call. No party ballot pair — nonpartisan track. §
  • The stewards' filethe recordNo adjudicated items.

2GeorgiaD-heldOssoff (D), incumbent, running

The call — Democratic hold. Twenty dollars of incumbent cash to one of the challenger's, and the raters moved toward the holder in July; the favorite is a favorite for a reason.

DR
Open the form — 7 sourced lines
  • Morning linethe ratersLean D (Cook) · Likely D (Sabato, moved Jul 30) §
  • Past performanceshow it ran before2024 Pres R+2.2 · 2021 Sen runoff Ossoff D+1.2 (~4.48M cast) · 2014 Sen Perdue R+7.7 (~2.57M) §
  • The barn (FEC)the candidates' moneyOssoff (D) Q2 $20M, $80M-plus this cycle, $42M on hand; Collins (R) Q2 about $2.1M raised, $2.1M on hand — a twenty-to-one cash gap §
  • The totethe betting marketD 72c Kalshi · D 73c Polymarket (Aug 24) §
  • Class & equipmentthe fieldR primary May 19 went to a June 16 runoff: Mike Collins 55.5 over Dooley, Trump-endorsed. §
  • Speed figuresprimary turnoutSpeed figures apply: Georgia certified — D 1,081,811 vs R 933,817 (governor first round; see the ballots meter). §
  • The stewards' filethe recordNo adjudicated items on either nominee.

3IowaR-heldOPEN — Ernst (R) DEPARTED (retiring)

The call — Republican hold. The one that runs against the national lean: the market, the cash on hand, the past margins, and the primary turnout all point the same way, and it isn't the Democrats'. By a head.

DR
Open the form — 8 sourced lines
  • Morning linethe ratersToss Up (Cook, moved Aug 20) · Leans R (Sabato, moved Jun 2) §
  • Past performanceshow it ran before2024 Pres R+13.2 · 2020 Sen Ernst R+6.6 (~1.67M cast) · 2014 Sen Ernst R+8.3 (~1.13M) §
  • The barn (FEC)the candidates' moneyHinson (R) $10.2M cycle, $6.7M on hand; Turek (D) $6.3M cycle, $2.4M on hand (Q2 filings) §
  • Late moneyoutside moneyLate money, booked: Senate Majority PAC $17M for the fall; One Nation answering across four states; Hinson's own $3.8M reserved. §
  • The totethe betting marketR 52c Kalshi · R 51c Polymarket (Aug 24) — the tightest R-held price after Texas §
  • Class & equipmentthe fieldJune 2 primaries: Turek (D) 62.6 over Wahls; Hinson (R) 74.2. Money caveat printed: Iowa is the least-pinned barn on the card — two FEC-fed counts disagree on basis; the receipts figures are used. §
  • Speed figuresprimary turnoutSpeed figures: Iowa certified — D 191,950 vs R 206,255. §
  • The stewards' filethe recordNo adjudicated items.

4KansasR-heldMarshall (R), incumbent, running

The call — Republican hold. An eighty-percent primary and an 84-cent market; the challenger's collection plate is the story, not the call.

DR
Open the form — 6 sourced lines
  • Morning linethe ratersLikely R (Cook, Aug 4) · Likely R (Sabato, moved Aug 4) §
  • Past performanceshow it ran before2024 Pres R+16.2 · 2020 Sen Marshall R+11.4 (~1.37M cast) · 2014 Sen Roberts R+10.6 over an independent (~887K) §
  • The barn (FEC)the candidates' moneyMarshall (R): ~$6.2M cycle, $5.4M on hand per mid-July FEC-fed data; Hamilton (D): $3.66M in his first 62 days, 16,336 donors — a megachurch pastor's collection plate, on the record. The Reflector projects the meet tops $50M. §
  • The totethe betting marketR 84c Kalshi · R 85c Polymarket (Aug 24) §
  • Class & equipmentthe fieldAug 4 primaries: Marshall 79.9 (266,135 votes); Hamilton (D) 34.9 (76,105). §
  • The stewards' filethe recordNo adjudicated items.

5MaineR-heldCollins (R), incumbent, running

The call — Democratic flip. The record says never bet against the incumbent; the 69-cent market, the plus-six national lean, and a 218-to-129 thousand-ballot primary say the ground changed. The record loses this one.

DR
Open the form — 7 sourced lines
  • Morning linethe ratersToss Up (Cook) · Toss-up (Sabato) §
  • Past performanceshow it ran before2024 Pres D+7.0 · 2020 Sen Collins R+8.6 (~819K cast) · 2014 Sen Collins R+37.0 (~617K) — the great horse-for-course record on the card §
  • The barn (FEC)the candidates' moneyCollins (R) about $19M this cycle, $11M on hand; Jackson (D) nominated July 25, after the quarter — campaign-reported $2M in the first 48 hours, 30,000 new donors §
  • The totethe betting marketCollins 31c Kalshi — the market prices the D side near 69 (Aug 24) §
  • Class & equipmentthe fieldThe equipment story: Mills suspended before the primary; Platner won June 9; Platner withdrew — no charges, a candidacy fact only; Maine Democrats nominated Senate President Troy Jackson July 25. Three horses, one silks change, two months. §
  • Speed figuresprimary turnoutSpeed figures: Maine certified — D 217,747 vs R 129,407 (RCV round one; the D winner later withdrew, said so). §
  • The stewards' filethe recordNo adjudicated items.

6MichiganD-heldOPEN — Peters (D) DEPARTED (retiring)

The call — Democratic hold. The Republican is running the race he lost by a third of a point, and the market prices the new Democrat at 70; the rematch that isn't one goes the way the real one did.

DR
Open the form — 7 sourced lines
  • Morning linethe ratersToss Up (Cook) · Toss-up (Sabato) §
  • Past performanceshow it ran before2024 Pres R+1.4 · 2020 Sen Peters D+1.7 (~5.49M cast) · 2014 Sen Peters D+13.3 (~3.1M) §
  • The barn (FEC)the candidates' moneyEl-Sayed (D) Q2 $4.57M, $2.7M on hand; Rogers (R) Q2 $2.9M, $7.6M cycle, $4.4M on hand — most in the field §
  • The totethe betting marketD 70c Kalshi · D 71c Polymarket (Aug 24) §
  • Class & equipmentthe fieldAug 4: El-Sayed won the D nod over Stevens and McMorrow (percentages PENDING — canvass). Rogers, the R nominee, is on his second straight Senate run — lost 2024 by 0.3. The rematch that isn't quite one. §
  • Speed figuresprimary turnoutMichigan joins the ballots meter at its Aug 24 canvass — PENDING (certification). §
  • The stewards' filethe recordNo adjudicated items.

7MinnesotaD-heldOPEN — Smith (D) DEPARTED (retiring)

The call — Democratic hold. She beat twenty million dollars of her own party's air support in the primary; at 90 cents the general is the easier race.

DR
Open the form — 7 sourced lines
  • Morning linethe ratersLikely D (Cook) · Likely D (Sabato) §
  • Past performanceshow it ran before2024 Pres D+4.2 (50.92 to 46.68, 3.18M cast — canvass-verified today) · 2020 Sen Smith D+5.2 (~3.2M) · 2014 Sen Franken D+10.3 (~1.99M) §
  • The barn (FEC)the candidates' moneyFlanagan (D): $6.5M cycle through the pre-primary report, $1.1M on hand July 22; Tafoya (R): $5.3M cycle, $2.08M on hand June 30. The primary loser held $5M — the money lost anyway. §
  • The totethe betting marketD 90c Kalshi · D 91c Polymarket (Aug 24) §
  • Class & equipmentthe fieldAug 11 DFL primary: Lt. Gov. Flanagan 58.9 beat Rep. Craig 39.5 — against roughly $20M of air support for Craig. The horse beat the barn. R: Tafoya 52.6, a former NFL sideline reporter in her first race — the truest maiden on the card. §
  • Speed figuresprimary turnoutMinnesota joins the ballots meter at its Aug 25 canvass — PENDING (certification). §
  • The stewards' filethe recordNo adjudicated items.

8NebraskaR-heldRicketts (R), incumbent, running

The call — Republican hold. The owner funds his own campaign and holds the cash; the independent's last statewide run finished 6.9 back on the state's other seat. The 71-cent market is about right.

IR
Open the form — 6 sourced lines
  • Morning linethe ratersLikely R (Cook) · Likely R (Sabato) §
  • Past performanceshow it ran before2024 Pres R+20.5 · 2024 Sen special Ricketts R+25.2 (~920K cast) · 2020 Sen Sasse R+38.3 (~951K) §
  • The barn (FEC)the candidates' moneyRicketts (R) Q2 $6.3M — $5.2M of it his own money — $11M cycle, $6.0M on hand; Osborn (I) Q2 $1.9M, $5.7M cycle, $2.4M on hand. The claim box: the owner rides his own horse. §
  • The totethe betting marketR 71c Kalshi · R 72c Polymarket (Aug 24) §
  • Class & equipmentthe fieldOsborn qualified by petition July 16, runs registered-nonpartisan — the 2024 rematch angle, having lost the state's other seat by 6.9. The Democratic primary was won on a $20,000 campaign; the winner then withdrew, clearing Osborn's lane. A scratch that shaped the field. §
  • The stewards' filethe recordNo adjudicated items.

9New HampshireD-heldOPEN — Shaheen (D) DEPARTED (retiring)

Still on the card. The nominees are set September 8; the call posts with them. Until then the seat rides gold in the chamber chart above.

DR
Open the form — 7 sourced lines
  • Morning linethe ratersLean D (Cook) · Leans D (Sabato) §
  • Past performanceshow it ran before2024 Pres D+2.8 · 2020 Sen Shaheen D+15.6 (~806K cast) · 2014 Sen Shaheen D+3.3 (~495K) §
  • The barn (FEC)the candidates' moneyPappas (D) Q2 $3.5M, $5.2M on hand; Sununu (R) Q2 $1.5M, $3.0M on hand; Brown (R) Q2 $279K, $736K on hand §
  • Late moneyoutside moneyFall reservations, per AdImpact: $17M Democratic against $13.1M Republican; Pappas's own $7.7M booked. §
  • The totethe betting marketD 76c Kalshi · D 77c Polymarket (Aug 24) §
  • Class & equipmentthe fieldPrimaries not yet run — post time September 8. D: Pappas over minor opposition. R: John E. Sununu led Scott Brown 56-19 in July's UNH poll. The last Form entry that's still a morning workout. §
  • The stewards' filethe recordNo adjudicated items.

10North CarolinaR-heldOPEN — Tillis (R) DEPARTED (retired)

The call — Democratic flip. A four-term governor with three-to-one cash and the largest fall ad reservation on this card behind him, and both raters moved months ago; the most confident flip on the board is priced that way for a reason.

DR
Open the form — 8 sourced lines
  • Morning linethe ratersLean D (Cook, moved Apr 13) · Leans D (Sabato, moved Jun 11) §
  • Past performanceshow it ran before2024 Pres R+3.2 · 2020 Sen Tillis R+1.8 (~5.37M cast) · 2014 Sen Tillis R+1.6 (~2.91M) — three photo finishes running §
  • The barn (FEC)the candidates' moneyCooper (D) Q2 $14.8M, about $35M since launch, $20.7M on hand; Whatley (R) Q2 $5.0M, $11M-plus cycle, $3.4M on hand §
  • Late moneyoutside moneyLate money, booked: Senate Majority PAC reserved $31.4M for the fall — the largest single commitment pinned on the card §
  • The totethe betting marketD 79c Kalshi · D 78c Polymarket (Aug 24) — the priciest flip on the board §
  • Class & equipmentthe fieldMarch 3 primaries: Cooper (D, four-term governor) and Whatley (R, former RNC chair, Trump-endorsed) both won; percentages PENDING (sweep). §
  • Speed figuresprimary turnoutSpeed figures: North Carolina certified — D 827,755 vs R 627,404. The home-track number that started this meter. §
  • The stewards' filethe recordNo adjudicated items.

11Ohio (special)R-heldHusted (R), appointed incumbent — the Vance seat, term through January 2029

The call — Democratic flip. The past runs eleven points the other way; the money runs two-to-one this way and the market leans by a nose. The call takes the nose and prints the caveat: he lost the state's other seat by 3.6.

DR
Open the form — 7 sourced lines
  • Morning linethe ratersToss Up (Cook) · Toss-up (Sabato, moved Jun 11) §
  • Past performanceshow it ran before2024 Pres R+11.2 · 2022 Sen Vance R+6.1 (53.03 to 46.92, 4.13M cast — canvass-verified today) · 2016 Sen Portman R+20.8 (~5.35M) §
  • The barn (FEC)the candidates' moneyBrown (D) Q2 $17.1M across committees, $16.2M on hand, 135,200 donors; Husted (R) Q2 $7.7M across committees — $4.3M of it via three affiliated PACs; cash on hand PENDING (filings) §
  • The totethe betting marketD 52c on both boards (Aug 24) — a coin flip with a lean §
  • Class & equipmentthe fieldMay 5 primaries nominated Brown and Husted. The handicap fact the form prints without comment: Brown lost the state's other seat in 2024 by 3.6. §
  • Speed figuresprimary turnoutSpeed figures: Ohio certified — D 767,360 vs R 820,746 (governor; D side unopposed, said so). §
  • The stewards' filethe recordNo adjudicated items.

12TexasR-heldOPEN in fact — Cornyn (R) UNSEATED in his own runoff

The call — Democratic flip. The longshot call, flagged as one: the market is dead even and the past runs double digits Republican — but the cash on hand runs twelve-to-one Democratic, the primary drew more Democratic ballots than Republican, and the Republicans retired their own four-term incumbent in a runoff. When the market can't pick, take the stronger hand.

DR
Open the form — 8 sourced lines
  • Morning linethe ratersToss Up (Cook, moved Aug 20) · Leans R (Sabato, moved May 26) — the raters split; the form just prints it §
  • Past performanceshow it ran before2024 Pres R+13.7 · 2020 Sen Cornyn R+9.6 (~11.15M cast) · 2014 Sen Cornyn R+27.2 (~4.7M) §
  • The barn (FEC)the candidates' moneyTalarico (D): $68.6M raised this cycle, $21.5M on hand — FEC's own totals through June 30, the biggest barn on the card. Paxton (R): $9.25M raised, $1.76M on hand, per FEC — his campaign's larger claims counted joint-fundraising money; the Form uses the filing. §
  • Late moneyoutside moneyLone Star Rising (pro-Talarico) holds $12.7M; the pro-Paxton primary PAC ended June with $35K. And the tell of the season, per AdImpact: neither national party has booked a single fall TV reservation in Texas — the smart money hasn't decided the race is real. Talarico's own ads: $25M-plus since May. §
  • The totethe betting marketKalshi 50c-50c dead even · Polymarket R 51c (Aug 24) — the market cannot pick either §
  • Class & equipmentthe fieldMarch 3 R primary forced a May 26 runoff: Paxton 63.8 — a four-term sitting senator unseated in his own party's runoff. D side: Talarico 53, Crockett 46, no runoff needed. The form has no column for a champion retired mid-meet, so it gets this sentence. §
  • Speed figuresprimary turnoutSpeed figures: Texas certified — D 2,319,187 vs R 2,166,910. The largest pair on the meter. §
  • The stewards' filethe recordAdjudicated file, closed items only: 2015 state securities-fraud charges resolved by pretrial-diversion agreement, April 2024; impeached by the Texas House 2023, acquitted by the Texas Senate. Both closed; both citable; nothing pending is reportable. §
THE HOUSE CARD, twenty-three races: Cook's nineteen toss-ups plus Sabato's four adds, per the printed rule. The frame: 218 R, 212 D, one Independent, four vacancies; every special so far a same-party hold, so Democrats need a NET +3; the selections box now runs the rest of the arithmetic race by race. The redistricting rebuild nets a published R+6 expectation (Sabato, range +5 to +9); the track was regraded before the meet. Departures: 23 Democrats and 37 Republicans still serving will not be on November's ballot for their seats. The whole-chamber tote: D 86c Kalshi, 88.5c Polymarket; the D side leads the district tote in 22 of these 23. §

1Arizona 1stR-heldOPEN - Schweikert (R) DEPARTED, running for governor

The call — Democratic flip. An open seat, a returning nominee who beat his own party's establishment pick to get here, and a 78-cent market against the kicker's cash lead.

DR
Open the form — 5 sourced lines
  • Morning linethe ratersToss Up (Cook) - Toss-up (Sabato) §
  • Past performanceshow it ran beforeH24 R+3.8 - H22 R+0.9 - P24 Trump+3.1; lines unchanged §
  • The barn (FEC)the candidates' moneyFeely (R) $794K on hand (July 31); Shah (D) $402K (July 1) §
  • The totethe betting marketD 78c (Aug 24) §
  • Class & equipmentthe fieldJuly 21 primaries: Feely, a Trump-endorsed former NFL kicker, won the R nod; Shah, the 2024 nominee, returns, having beaten the DCCC's pick. §

2Arizona 6thR-heldCiscomani (R), incumbent, running

The call — Democratic flip. An 85-cent market against an incumbent holding the cash edge; the price is the call.

DR
Open the form — 5 sourced lines
  • Morning linethe ratersToss Up (Cook) - Toss-up (Sabato) §
  • Past performanceshow it ran beforeH24 R+2.5 - H22 R+1.5 - P24 Trump+0.7; lines unchanged §
  • The barn (FEC)the candidates' moneyCiscomani (R) $4.14M on hand; Mendoza (D) $3.26M, $7.35M raised (July 1) §
  • The totethe betting marketD 85c (Aug 24) §
  • Class & equipmentthe fieldBoth primaries unopposed, July 21. Mendoza: twenty-year Marine veteran, first Congressional race. §

3California 22ndR-heldValadao (R), incumbent, running

The call — Democratic flip. The new lines were drawn out from under the holder; one rater already moved, and the market moved further.

DR
Open the form — 5 sourced lines
  • Morning linethe ratersToss Up (Cook) - Lean D (Sabato, moved Jul 16); the raters disagree and the form prints both §
  • Past performanceshow it ran beforeNEW TRACK: the Prop 50 map, passed by the voters Nov 4, 2025. New-line P24 Trump+1.8. Old lines: H24 R+6.8 - H22 R+3.0 §
  • The barn (FEC)the candidates' moneyValadao (R) $3.37M on hand; Villegas (D) $572K, $2.65M raised (June 30) §
  • The totethe betting marketD 84c (Aug 24) §
  • Class & equipmentthe fieldTop-two June 2: Villegas advanced. Not a rematch; the old rival ran the old track. §

4Colorado 8thR-heldEvans (R), incumbent, running

The call — Democratic flip. The photo-finish district, 2,449 votes last time; the market calls this one by daylight at 76.

DR
Open the form — 5 sourced lines
  • Morning linethe ratersToss Up (Cook) - Toss-up (Sabato) §
  • Past performanceshow it ran beforeH24 R+0.7, decided by 2,449 votes - H22 D+0.7 - P24 Trump+1.8. The photo-finish district, unchanged. §
  • The barn (FEC)the candidates' moneyEvans (R) $3.88M on hand; Rutinel (D) $601K, $4.34M raised (June 30) §
  • The totethe betting marketD 76c (Aug 24) §
  • Class & equipmentthe fieldJune 30 primary: Rutinel 61; the seat's former Democratic holder did not run. §

5Florida 25thD-heldMoskowitz (D), incumbent, running, on a redrawn seat

The call — Democratic hold. Redrawn nine points against him and still 68 cents, with four-to-one cash; the hold survives the new map.

DR
Open the form — 5 sourced lines
  • Morning linethe ratersToss Up (Cook) - Toss-up (Sabato) §
  • Past performanceshow it ran beforeNEW TRACK: Florida's mid-decade map, upheld by the state supreme court June 11. New-line P24 Trump+9.1; the old seat ran H24 D+4.8 - H22 D+4.8. §
  • The barn (FEC)the candidates' moneyMoskowitz (D) $1.88M on hand; Singer (R) $466K, $2.25M raised (July 29) §
  • The totethe betting marketD 68c (Aug 24) §
  • Class & equipmentthe fieldAug 18 primaries: Singer, the Boca Raton mayor, took the R nod at 31.4 in a split field; Moskowitz 63.5. §

6Iowa 1stR-heldMiller-Meeks (R), incumbent, running

The call — Democratic flip. Third consecutive matchup, 799 votes the last one, and the challenger holds more cash than the incumbent this time; the market finally agrees at 74.

DR
Open the form — 5 sourced lines
  • Morning linethe ratersToss Up (Cook) - Toss-up (Sabato) §
  • Past performanceshow it ran beforeH24 R+0.2, decided by 799 votes - H22 R+6.8 - P24 Trump+8.4; lines unchanged §
  • The barn (FEC)the candidates' moneyMiller-Meeks (R) $4.69M on hand; Bohannan (D) $5.43M; the challenger out-cashes the incumbent (June 30) §
  • The totethe betting marketD 74c (Aug 24) §
  • Class & equipmentthe fieldTHIRD consecutive Miller-Meeks-Bohannan running. The 2024 edition was decided by 799 votes. The form loves a horse that keeps showing up. §

7Iowa 3rdR-heldNunn (R), incumbent, running

The call — Democratic flip. The challenger holds more cash than the incumbent and the market reads 78; the national lean does the rest.

DR
Open the form — 5 sourced lines
  • Morning linethe ratersToss Up (Cook) - Toss-up (Sabato) §
  • Past performanceshow it ran beforeH24 R+3.9 - H22 R+0.7 - P24 Trump+4.4; lines unchanged §
  • The barn (FEC)the candidates' moneyNunn (R) $3.57M on hand; Trone Garriott (D) $3.86M; challenger out-cashes (June 30) §
  • The totethe betting marketD 78c (Aug 24) §
  • Class & equipmentthe fieldJune 2 primary: Trone Garriott, a state senator. No rematch. §

8Michigan 7thR-heldBarrett (R), incumbent, running

The call — Democratic flip. The thinnest campaign account on the Democratic side of the card, 383 thousand on hand, and the market still reads 67; the call leans on the national environment and says so.

DR
Open the form — 5 sourced lines
  • Morning linethe ratersToss Up (Cook) - Toss-up (Sabato) §
  • Past performanceshow it ran beforeH24 R+3.7 - H22 D+5.4 (a different Democrat won it) - P24 Trump+1.2; lines unchanged §
  • The barn (FEC)the candidates' moneyBarrett (R) $2.87M on hand; Lawrence (D) $383K, $1.12M raised (July 15) §
  • The totethe betting marketD 67c (Aug 24) §
  • Class & equipmentthe fieldAug 4 primary: Lawrence, a progressive organizer, took the D nod at 43.7; the thinnest barn on the card's D side. §

9New Jersey 7thR-heldKean Jr. (R), incumbent, running

The call — Democratic flip. An 83-cent market in a district the presidential line carried by one; the price is the call.

DR
Open the form — 5 sourced lines
  • Morning linethe ratersToss Up (Cook) - Toss-up (Sabato) §
  • Past performanceshow it ran beforeH24 R+5.4 - H22 R+2.8 - P24 Trump+1.1; lines unchanged §
  • The barn (FEC)the candidates' moneyKean (R) $3.63M on hand; Bennett (D) $1.45M, $4.27M raised (June 30) §
  • The totethe betting marketD 83c (Aug 24) §
  • Class & equipmentthe fieldJune 2 primary: Bennett, a former Navy helicopter pilot, at 47.2. §

10New York 17thR-heldLawler (R), incumbent, running

The call — Democratic flip. The incumbent holds the cash; the district voted the other side's presidential line, and the market reads 71.

DR
Open the form — 5 sourced lines
  • Morning linethe ratersToss Up (Cook) - Toss-up (Sabato, moved Jul 30) §
  • Past performanceshow it ran beforeH24 R+6.3 - H22 R+0.6 - P24 Harris+0.5, one of three R-held seats the Democrat carried; lines unchanged §
  • The barn (FEC)the candidates' moneyLawler (R) $4.84M on hand, $8.17M raised; Conley (D) $1.32M, $4.32M raised (June 30) §
  • The totethe betting marketD 71c (Aug 24) §
  • Class & equipmentthe fieldJune 23 primary: Conley, an Army veteran. §

11Ohio 7thR-heldMax Miller (R), incumbent, running

The call — Democratic flip. The strangest price on the board, 82 cents in a Trump-plus-eleven seat, and the rating move that produced it is printed in the form below; the call follows the price, not a charge sheet — there isn't one.

DR
Open the form — 5 sourced lines
  • Morning linethe ratersToss Up (Cook, moved Aug 10 from Likely R) - Toss-up (Sabato, Aug 10) §
  • Past performanceshow it ran beforeNEW TRACK: Ohio's commission map, Oct 31, 2025. New-line P24 Trump+11.0, the reddest seat on the card. Old lines: H24 R+15.0 - H22 R+10.7. §
  • The barn (FEC)the candidates' moneyMiller (R) $1.38M on hand; Poindexter (D) $312K (June 30) §
  • The totethe betting marketD 82c, in a Trump+11 seat; the strangest price on the board (Aug 24) §
  • Class & equipmentthe fieldThe documented facts, and only those: Cook moved the race to Toss Up on Aug 10, after the incumbent stayed in past his party's ballot-replacement deadline amid his ex-wife's abuse allegations. Allegations, not charges; nothing filed as of Aug 24, and the form prints the rating move, not the accusation. §

12Ohio 9thD-heldKaptur (D), incumbent, running, her twenty-second term on the ballot

The call — Democratic hold. Twenty-two terms, a rematch she won by 2,382, six-to-one cash, a district drawn redder under her; the call respects the record at 74.

DR
Open the form — 5 sourced lines
  • Morning linethe ratersToss Up (Cook) - Toss-up (Sabato) §
  • Past performanceshow it ran beforeNEW TRACK: same Ohio map, drawn redder under her. New-line P24 Trump+10.5. Old lines: H24 D+0.7, by 2,382 votes - H22 D+13.2. §
  • The barn (FEC)the candidates' moneyKaptur (D) $3.49M on hand; Merrin (R) $531K (June 30) §
  • The totethe betting marketD 74c (Aug 24) §
  • Class & equipmentthe fieldREMATCH: Merrin again, after losing by 2,382 votes. The longest-serving woman in House history defends on the newest track. §

13Pennsylvania 7thR-heldMackenzie (R), incumbent, running

The call — Democratic flip. The cheapest Democratic price on the card at 66; the firefighter closes with the national lean behind him.

DR
Open the form — 5 sourced lines
  • Morning linethe ratersToss Up (Cook) - Toss-up (Sabato) §
  • Past performanceshow it ran beforeH24 R+1.0 - H22 D+2.0 - P24 Trump+3.2; lines unchanged §
  • The barn (FEC)the candidates' moneyMackenzie (R) $2.94M on hand; Brooks (D) $1.02M, $2.39M raised (June 30) §
  • The totethe betting marketD 66c, the cheapest D price on the card (Aug 24) §
  • Class & equipmentthe fieldMay 19 primary: Brooks, a Bethlehem firefighter and the state firefighters' union president, governor-endorsed. §

14Pennsylvania 8thR-heldBresnahan (R), incumbent, running

The call — Democratic flip. The mayor holds more cash than the incumbent in a Trump-plus-eight district and the market reads 76.

DR
Open the form — 5 sourced lines
  • Morning linethe ratersToss Up (Cook) - Toss-up (Sabato, moved Jul 30) §
  • Past performanceshow it ran beforeH24 R+1.6 - H22 D+2.4 - P24 Trump+8.4; lines unchanged §
  • The barn (FEC)the candidates' moneyBresnahan (R) $2.61M on hand; Cognetti (D) $3.41M; challenger out-cashes (June 30) §
  • The totethe betting marketD 76c (Aug 24) §
  • Class & equipmentthe fieldMay 19 primary: Cognetti, the mayor of Scranton. §

15Pennsylvania 10thR-heldPerry (R), incumbent, running, seventh term sought

The call — Democratic flip. A rematch decided by 5,133 votes; this time the challenger holds the cash edge and an 82-cent price.

DR
Open the form — 5 sourced lines
  • Morning linethe ratersToss Up (Cook) - Toss-up (Sabato) §
  • Past performanceshow it ran beforeH24 R+1.2, by 5,133 votes - H22 R+7.6 - P24 Trump+5.2; lines unchanged §
  • The barn (FEC)the candidates' moneyPerry (R) $2.85M on hand; Stelson (D) $4.48M; challenger out-cashes (June 30) §
  • The totethe betting marketD 82c (Aug 24) §
  • Class & equipmentthe fieldREMATCH: Stelson returns after 2024's 1.2-point loss. No adjudicated items. §

16Texas 34thD-heldV. Gonzalez (D), incumbent, running, on a redrawn seat

The call — Democratic hold. Redrawn ten points against him; the cash runs nearly four-to-one his and the market holds at 78. The map moved, the call doesn't.

DR
Open the form — 5 sourced lines
  • Morning linethe ratersToss Up (Cook) - Toss-up (Sabato) §
  • Past performanceshow it ran beforeNEW TRACK: the Texas map, enacted Aug 2025; the Supreme Court let it stand for 2026. New-line P24 Trump+10.1. Old lines: H24 D+2.6 - H22 D+8.5. §
  • The barn (FEC)the candidates' moneyGonzalez (D) $2.53M on hand; E. Flores (R) $686K (June 30) §
  • The totethe betting marketD 78c (Aug 24) §
  • Class & equipmentthe fieldMarch 3 R primary: Eric Flores beat former Rep. Mayra Flores 56.6, no runoff; the perennial rematch is not one this time. §

17Virginia 2ndR-heldKiggans (R), incumbent, running

The call — Democratic flip. The 2022 rematch in the closest presidential district on the card, and the comeback holds more cash than the incumbent; 79 cents reads right.

DR
Open the form — 5 sourced lines
  • Morning linethe ratersToss Up (Cook) - Toss-up (Sabato) §
  • Past performanceshow it ran beforeH24 R+3.8 - H22 R+3.4 - P24 Trump+0.2, the closest presidential district on the card; lines unchanged §
  • The barn (FEC)the candidates' moneyKiggans (R) $3.39M on hand; Luria (D) $3.58M; challenger out-cashes (July 15) §
  • The totethe betting marketD 79c (Aug 24) §
  • Class & equipmentthe fieldREMATCH OF 2022: former Rep. Luria's comeback, nominated Aug 4 at 81. §

18Washington 3rdD-heldGluesenkamp Perez (D), incumbent, running

The call — Democratic hold. The highest Democratic price on the card, 88, defending against a new opponent for the first time; a favorite who earned the price.

DR
Open the form — 5 sourced lines
  • Morning linethe ratersToss Up (Cook) - Lean D (Sabato); a disagreement row §
  • Past performanceshow it ran beforeH24 D+3.8 - H22 D+0.8 - P24 Trump+3.3; lines unchanged §
  • The barn (FEC)the candidates' moneyGluesenkamp Perez (D) $2.06M on hand, $6.29M raised (July 15); Braun (R) $1.27M, $2.21M raised (Aug 18) §
  • The totethe betting marketD 88c, the highest D price on the card (Aug 24) §
  • Class & equipmentthe fieldTop-two Aug 4: Braun, the state Senate Republican leader, advanced; her first defense against someone other than the old rival. §

19Wisconsin 3rdR-heldVan Orden (R), incumbent, running

The call — Democratic flip. Third run, the biggest challenger fundraising haul on the card, a rematch priced at 73; persistence, priced.

DR
Open the form — 5 sourced lines
  • Morning linethe ratersToss Up (Cook) - Toss-up (Sabato) §
  • Past performanceshow it ran beforeH24 R+2.7 - H22 R+3.7 - P24 Trump+7.3; lines unchanged §
  • The barn (FEC)the candidates' moneyVan Orden (R) $4.68M on hand; Cooke (D) $1.83M on hand, $8.60M raised, the biggest challenger haul on the card (July 22) §
  • The totethe betting marketD 73c (Aug 24) §
  • Class & equipmentthe fieldREMATCH, and Cooke's third run; nominated Aug 11 at 58. The form respects persistence; the tote prices it. §

20Florida 14thD-heldCastor (D), incumbent, running; Sabato-only entry, on a redrawn seat

The call — Democratic hold. The widest rater split on the card — one board says Lean R, the other toss-up — and the market sides with the incumbent at 73; the call fades a rater and prints that it did.

DR
Open the form — 5 sourced lines
  • Morning linethe ratersLean R (Cook) - Toss-up (Sabato, Jul 30); the widest rater split on the card §
  • Past performanceshow it ran beforeNEW TRACK: the Florida map carved Tampa into three. New-line P24 Trump+10.5. Old lines: H24 D+15.3 - H22 D+13.8. §
  • The barn (FEC)the candidates' moneyCastor (D) $1.74M on hand; Beltran (R) $1.94M; challenger out-cashes (July 29) §
  • The totethe betting marketD 73c; the market siding against Cook's Lean R (Aug 24) §
  • Class & equipmentthe fieldAug 18 primary: Beltran, a state representative, at 45.6; Castor unopposed. §

21Michigan 10thR-heldOPEN - James (R) DEPARTED, running for governor; Sabato-only entry

The call — Republican hold. The only market on the House card leaning Republican, at 65, with the endorsement, the cash, and a six-point district behind it; the House card's one Republican call.

DR
Open the form — 5 sourced lines
  • Morning linethe ratersLean R (Cook) - Toss-up (Sabato) §
  • Past performanceshow it ran beforeH24 R+6.1 - H22 R+0.5 - P24 Trump+6.5; lines unchanged §
  • The barn (FEC)the candidates' moneyBouchard (R) $1.14M on hand (Aug 19); Hines (D) $158K, $1.21M raised (July 15); a Q3 story waiting §
  • The totethe betting marketR 65c, the only race on the card where the tote favors the Republican (Aug 24) §
  • Class & equipmentthe fieldAug 4 primaries: Bouchard, Trump-endorsed, 72.2; Hines, a former prosecutor, 47.0. §

22North Carolina 1stD-heldDon Davis (D), incumbent, running; Sabato-only entry, on a redrawn seat

The call — Democratic hold. Drawn eleven and a half points redder and still holding two-to-one cash and a 60-cent price; the hardest hold on the card, called anyway.

DR
Open the form — 5 sourced lines
  • Morning linethe ratersLean R (Cook) - Toss-up (Sabato, Jul 30) §
  • Past performanceshow it ran beforeNEW TRACK: the North Carolina map, enacted Oct 2025. New-line P24 Trump+11.5. Old lines: H24 D+1.6 - H22 D+4.7. §
  • The barn (FEC)the candidates' moneyDavis (D) $3.57M on hand; Buckhout (R) $1.83M (June 30) §
  • The totethe betting marketD 60c (Aug 24) §
  • Class & equipmentthe fieldREMATCH: Buckhout again, on a track drawn eleven points redder. The hardest hold on the Democratic side of the card. §

23North Carolina 11thR-heldINCUMBENT OFF THE BALLOT - Edwards (R) ended his campaign Aug 5; Sabato-only entry

The call — Democratic flip. The thinnest price on the card, 57 cents, ten weeks after an Ethics finding forced a late substitution, and the replacement's first campaign filing isn't due yet against 2.18 million banked; called by a nose and flagged as one.

DR
Open the form — 5 sourced lines
  • Morning linethe ratersLean R (Cook) - Toss-up (Sabato, Jul 30) §
  • Past performanceshow it ran beforeH24 R+13.5 - H22 R+9.3 - P24 Trump+9.5; not redrawn §
  • The barn (FEC)the candidates' moneyAger (D) $2.18M on hand, $3.05M raised (June 30); Balkcom (R): no FEC report yet, entered Aug 9. An honest blank; her first filing comes with the pre-general. §
  • The totethe betting marketD 57c, the thinnest price on the card (Aug 24) §
  • Class & equipmentthe fieldEdwards ended his campaign Aug 5 after a House Ethics Committee report detailed sexual harassment of two staffers; an institutional finding, which is what this file prints. The district committee substituted state Rep. Balkcom on Aug 10. A late jockey change on a fast track. §

Selection rule, printed: every race rated anything but Safe/Solid by either Cook Political Report or Sabato’s Crystal Ball. Provenance tiers and the pending sweep list live on the desk; tote prices move daily and are dated where they stand. Both cards drawn: twelve Senate races, twenty-three House. The crossings chart and the called totals sum the calls plus the chalk — every off-card race taken at the raters’ own side of their board, counted on the desk. Where the sum of the race-by-race calls and the whole-track tote disagree — on the Senate side they do — the form prints both and splits nothing. The seat-by-seat chamber diagram returns the morning after post time, drawn from results, to grade every call on this page. Card drawn 24 August 2026.

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