§68 —
On winning
Democrat
30 PERCENT
What it cost. From January through August 2025, U.S. soybean exports to China totaled 218 million bushels, against 985 million in the same months of 2024 1. In December the Agriculture Department announced $12 billion in aid, $11 billion of it Farmer Bridge Assistance, paying soybean growers $30.88 an acre 2. Chapter 12 farm bankruptcies reached 315 in 2025, up from 216 the year before, a 46 percent rise 3.
And the income line. USDA projects 2026 net farm income at $158.4 billion, down 2.6 percent, or 5.5 percent after inflation 4. Direct government payments are forecast at $47.4 billion, up nearly 70 percent — about 30 percent of net farm income 5. The promise was that farmers would get tired of winning. Nearly a third of what they take home now arrives as a check from Washington.
Sources
- "From January through August 2025, U.S. soybean exports to China totaled just 218 million bushels, down sharply from 985 million bushels in 2024" — American Farm Bureau Federation, 2 October 2025 ↑
- $12 billion in aid: $11 billion in Farmer Bridge Assistance and $1 billion for specialty crops and sugar; soybeans at $30.88 per acre — American Farm Bureau Federation, 8 December 2025 ↑
- Chapter 12 farm bankruptcies: 315 in 2025, 216 in 2024, up 46 percent — American Farm Bureau Federation, 9 February 2026 ↑
- 2026 net farm income forecast at $158.4 billion, down 2.6 percent (5.5 percent inflation-adjusted) — USDA Economic Research Service, 3 September 2026 ↑
- Direct government payments of $47.4 billion, up nearly 70 percent, about 30 percent of net farm income — American Farm Bureau Federation, 3 September 2026 ↑
Republican
WINNING
The promise, at a rally in The Woodlands, Texas, in June 2016: Americans would win so much they "are gonna get sick of it" 1. For farmers, the administration's best receipts are the deals with China. Beijing met its pledge of 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans by January 2. In May the White House announced China would "purchase at least $17 billion per year of U.S. agricultural products in 2026 (prorated), 2027, and 2028" 3.
That is a real case. A trade war is supposed to end in purchases, and there are purchases, on paper and in the ports. A farmer who sold into China again this spring can say something came of it. What it cost to get there, and who covered the difference, is on the other side.
Sources
- Americans "are gonna get sick of it" — rally in The Woodlands, Texas — CBS News, 18 June 2016 ↑
- China reached its pledge to buy 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans — Farm Policy News, citing Reuters, January 2026 ↑
- China to "purchase at least $17 billion per year of U.S. agricultural products in 2026 (prorated), 2027, and 2028" — White House fact sheet, 17 May 2026 ↑
“My brother-in-law has a farm, a small one, soybeans mostly, and he keeps his papers in a coffee can. January through August 2024: nine hundred eighty-five million bushels to China. Same months in 2025: two hundred eighteen. Then a letter about the aid — thirty dollars and eighty-eight cents an acre for soybeans. Then the bankruptcy figures he reads every February, and he doesn't like reading them: three hundred fifteen, up from two sixteen. Sorry — I know you're busy. He's supposed to be sick of winning. What part of the coffee can is the winning?”— Lou
“So much winning you'd get sick of it, he said. The soybean farmers got sick first: two hundred eighteen million bushels to China through August of last year, down from nine hundred eighty-five. Then twelve billion in aid, then farm bankruptcies up forty-six percent, and this year government checks are about thirty percent of what a farm takes home. That's not winning. That's a subscription.”
“The farmers are winning so much that the government has to send them checks to help them cope with all the winning, which is thirty percent of their income, which is thirty percent more winning than they had before.”