§88 —
On cocked and loaded
Democrat
TACO
This is the one entry on the ledger that could have gone in a different column. By his own number the fold spared 150 people. His account of the moment was exact: "150 dead people, that would have taken place probably within a half an hour after I said go ahead. And I didn't like it" 1. It is entered here because the threat was published after the retreat.
The arithmetic has since been revised. U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran began in late February of this year, and by mid-October the war was in its eighth month 2. The rights group HRANA counted 3,684 dead in Iran through July 17; Iran's health ministry gave 3,528; the Pentagon had acknowledged 23 American military deaths by late October 3. None of those figures is final. In 2019 the president said the unmanned part was "a big, big difference" 1. The number that was not proportionate was 150. The HRANA count is more than 24 times that, and it stops in July.
Sources
- "150 dead people, that would have taken place probably within a half an hour after I said go ahead"; "And I didn't like it"; the drone being unmanned made a "big, big difference" — NPR, 21 June 2019 ↑
- U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran in late February; the war enters its eighth month — Euronews, 15 October 2026 ↑
- HRANA: 3,684 deaths through 17 July; Iran's health ministry: 3,528; the Pentagon acknowledged 23 U.S. military fatalities in late October; figures not finalized — Wikipedia, Casualties of the 2026 Iran war ↑
Republican
COCKED AND LOADED
The tweets went out on the morning of June 21, 2019, after Iran shot down an American surveillance drone. "We were cocked & loaded to retaliate last night on 3 different sights when I asked, how many will die." The answer from a general was 150. He wrote that he stopped it 10 minutes before the strike, because it was not "proportionate to shooting down an unmanned drone" 1.
Give the decision its due. A commander who asks the number and then stops is doing the job, and a machine is not 150 people. The trouble is the phrase. Cocked and loaded describes a gun already raised. The New York Times, citing senior officials, reported that planes were in the air and ships in position 1. He told NBC that day that the planes were not up: "No, but they would have been pretty soon," and that the plan was "subject to my approval" 2. The phrase was published after the gun was back in the drawer. Three sites and 150 lives had been one word away.
Sources
- "We were cocked & loaded to retaliate last night on 3 different sights when I asked, how many will die"; 150 people; 10 minutes; not "proportionate to shooting down an unmanned drone"; the Times's report of planes in the air and ships in position — NPR, 21 June 2019 ↑
- "No, but they would have been pretty soon"; "we had something ready to go, subject to my approval"; "they came in about a half an hour before" — NBC News, Meet the Press full interview, June 2019 ↑
“I'm slow with these things, so I wrote it on a napkin. The Times says the planes were in the air. The president says no, "pretty soon." He says ten minutes before. He also says they came in about a half an hour before. I'm sure there's a reason. On the other side of the napkin I put 150, not proportionate. Under that I put this year's count, 3,684, and that one stops in July. Sorry, one thing before you go. The man who said 150 was too many. Did anybody bring him the second number?”— Lou
“Cocked and loaded. You know when a guy tells you that? The morning after, when there's nothing to show you. A general says 150, he stops it ten minutes out, fine, I'll buy that man a drink. Then he tells NBC the planes never went up. So what was cocked? The tweet was cocked. Nobody cuts the trailer for the movie he didn't shoot unless the trailer was the product. And hold on to that number, 150, because that was too many. Too many. Now go read this year's number and tell me who moved the line.”
“The president's restraint in 2019 proves he understands proportion, and the events of 2026 prove he understands that proportion can be revisited, which is what you want in a commander: a firm line, reviewed regularly.”