§91 —
On gerrymander
Democrat
24 TO 14
Then the voters arrived, and these are the November 4 numbers. Texas Republicans lost four of the five seats the map was built to flip, and two of their own. They go to Washington with 24 seats to Democrats' 14, one fewer than they started with 1. Democrat Leticia Gutierrez held the 9th, which Trump would have carried by 20 2. The map assumed he would keep his 2024 gains with Latino Texans 1.
Florida hoped for four and Democrats held at least three, with the fourth too close to call 2. In Ohio, Marcy Kaptur won a seat Trump would have carried by 11 2. In North Carolina, redrawn for an edge in 11 of 14 seats, Richard Hudson, chair of the House GOP's campaign arm, conceded 23. One count across nine states: 21 seats in play, two projected for Republicans, 18 for Democrats 4. He asked for five more seats. His party lost the House 5.
Sources
- Four of five targets lost, two of their own; 24-14; the bet on Latino voters — Texas Tribune via KSAT, 4 November 2026 ↑
- District-by-district results and 2024 Trump margins for Texas, Florida, Ohio and North Carolina, as of Wednesday afternoon — Roll Call, 4 November 2026 ↑
- Hudson, chair of the House GOP's campaign arm, concedes in North Carolina's 9th — CBS News live coverage, 4 November 2026 ↑
- Of 21 seats in play across nine states, Republicans projected to win two and Democrats projected to pick up 18 — Deseret News, 4 November 2026 ↑
- Democrats won control of the House — CBS News live coverage, 4 November 2026 ↑
Republican
GERRYMANDER
The promise was specific. "We have an opportunity in Texas to pick up five seats," Trump said in August 2025. "And we are entitled to five more seats" 1. Republicans in Austin hoped for a 30-8 delegation 2. The law allowed it: in 2019 the Supreme Court held that partisan gerrymandering claims are "beyond the reach of the federal courts" 3. In July Cook's net across all the redraws stood at about eight seats toward Republicans and two toward Democrats 4.
The other party bought the same knife. California voters approved Proposition 50 by about 64 percent to 36 and redrew five Republican-held seats 5. As of November 4 one count had Democrats flipping all five: promised five, delivered five 6. It was a gerrymander by ballot, and it worked. Before the vote one Republican strategist gave Florida Politics the definition of the failure mode: a dummymander "is when you lose seats because you jeopardized them by drawing new ones" 7. Hold that definition up to the next column.
Sources
- "We have an opportunity in Texas to pick up five seats"; "we are entitled to five more seats" — Scripps News, 5 August 2025 ↑
- Republicans "had hoped for a 30-8 split in the delegation" — Texas Tribune via KSAT, 4 November 2026 ↑
- Rucho v. Common Cause, 27 June 2019 — Cornell Legal Information Institute ↑
- Republicans about +8 seats and Democrats about +2 from redistricting — Colorado Politics, citing the Cook Political Report, 29 July 2026 ↑
- Proposition 50 approved, 64.42 percent to 35.58 percent — Wikipedia, 2025 California Proposition 50 ↑
- California: Democrats targeted five seats and flipped all five, results not final in several races — Deseret News, 4 November 2026 ↑
- The strategist's definition — Florida Politics ↑
“My wife's cousin is a tailor. He told me you don't cut a suit to what the man weighed last year. I think about that. Texas cut for thirty to eight. Got twenty-four to fourteen. The 9th, Trump by 20 on paper, and a Democrat held it. Florida hoped for four, and Democrats held at least three. Those are November 4 numbers, I wrote the date on my hand. Sorry, one thing before you go. "We are entitled to five more seats." He got one. Who's he see about the alterations?”— Lou
“Gerrymander. The pitch was five seats. "Entitled." So they took a map and a sharp knife and cut Texas to the last election, thirty to eight on paper. Here's the one thing nobody in that room could draw: a guy changing his mind. Twenty-four to fourteen. One seat fewer than they walked in with. They spent a year building a fort around a crowd that left. And don't get comfortable on the other stool, California's five came in right on the invoice. Both parties bought the knife, and the thing on the cutting board was you.”
“The maps performed exactly as designed for the voters they were designed for, who unfortunately were not the ones who came.”