§76 —
On roaring back
Democrat
MINUS 35,000
How far back. Manufacturing employment was 12,673,000 in January 2025 and 12,638,000 in August 2026 — 35,000 fewer than at the inauguration, after the recovery from December 1. The pipeline for future factory jobs is thinner: spending on manufacturing construction ran at an annual rate of $237.5 billion in January 2025 and $169.8 billion in July 2026, down 28.5 percent 2.
And the trillions. Economists at the Peterson Institute found the investment pledges "clouded with uncertainty," with the Gulf states' "nearly $4 trillion" in commitments ones that "strain credibility" 3. Roaring back was the promise on the day of the tariffs. Seventeen months later the count is still 35,000 short of the day he took office, and the cranes are building less.
Sources
- All employees, manufacturing: 12,673,000 in January 2025; 12,638,000 in August 2026 — Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED, series MANEMP, 4 September 2026 ↑
- Total manufacturing construction spending, annual rate: $237.5 billion in January 2025; $169.8 billion in July 2026 — Census Bureau via FRED, series TLMFGCONS, 1 September 2026 ↑
- The pledges "are clouded with uncertainty"; the Gulf states' "nearly $4 trillion" in commitments "strain credibility" — Peterson Institute for International Economics, 27 January 2026 ↑
Republican
ROARING BACK
The line, from the Rose Garden on April 2, 2025, the day of the tariff announcement: "Jobs and factories will come roaring back into our country and you see it happening already" 1.
There is a recent upswing, and it belongs here in full. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported in September that manufacturing employment "continued its upward trend (+16,000)," and is "up by 58,000 since a recent low in December 2025" 2. The Institute for Supply Management's factory index stood at 54.6 in August, its eighth straight month of expansion 3. The White House keeps a running list of announced investments that it says runs to trillions of dollars 4. Eight months of growth is a trend, and a trend is what a roar would look like from the inside. How far it has come back is on the other side.
Sources
- "Jobs and factories will come roaring back into our country and you see it happening already" — Rose Garden, 2 April 2025 — Roll Call / Factba.se ↑
- Manufacturing employment "continued its upward trend (+16,000)… up by 58,000 since a recent low in December 2025" — Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Situation, 4 September 2026 ↑
- Manufacturing PMI at 54.6 percent in August 2026, an eighth straight month of expansion — Institute for Supply Management, 1 September 2026 ↑
- "President Trump Has Secured Trillions of Dollars in New Investments" — The White House, 8 March 2026 ↑
“My nephew does his homework on these charts, so I borrowed two. Manufacturing jobs: twelve million six hundred seventy-three thousand in January of last year. Twelve million six hundred thirty-eight thousand this August. And the other chart, the one that shows what's being built, factories under construction: two hundred thirty-seven and a half billion a year, then a hundred sixty-nine point eight. He drew a little arrow on the first chart where it turns up in December, and it does turn up. Sorry, I'm going. If it's roaring back, when does it get back to January?”— Lou
“"Jobs and factories will come roaring back." Rose Garden, April of last year. Since the inauguration, factory jobs are down thirty-five thousand, and spending on building new factories is down twenty-eight and a half percent. To be fair, they've been climbing since December — fifty-eight thousand off the bottom, and the purchasing managers say eight straight months of growth. So the roar is real. It's the sound of climbing back toward where they started.”
“The jobs are roaring back from the low they reached while they were getting ready to roar, which is how a roar works: first the inhale, then the part everyone hears.”