§77 —
On the Sharpie
Democrat
NO UPDATES BEYOND 2024
The map. The forecast gave southeastern Alabama about a 5 percent chance of tropical-storm-force winds, and the Birmingham weather office had posted that "Alabama will NOT see any impacts"; two days after the marker, an unsigned NOAA statement said Birmingham "spoke in absolute terms" 1. The Commerce Department's inspector general found in 2020 that "the Department required NOAA to issue a Statement that did not further NOAA's or NWS's interests" 2.
The count. On May 8, 2025, NOAA announced that its Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters product "will be retired, with no updates beyond calendar year 2024" 3. After losing staff, the National Weather Service was allowed to hire 450 meteorologists, hydrologists and radar technicians that August 4. And the council's recommendation for the agency that pays out after a storm: aid only for homes "completely destroyed" 5. In 2019 the storm was drawn somewhere else. In 2025 the tally of storms was stopped.
Sources
- About a 5 percent chance of tropical-storm-force winds in southeastern Alabama; Birmingham: "Alabama will NOT see any impacts"; NOAA: Birmingham "spoke in absolute terms" — WSFA, 6 September 2019 ↑
- "The Department required NOAA to issue a Statement that did not further NOAA's or NWS's interests" — Commerce Department inspector general, OIG-20-032-I — Nextgov, July 2020 ↑
- The Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters product "will be retired, with no updates beyond calendar year 2024" — NOAA NESDIS, 8 May 2025 ↑
- The National Weather Service allowed to hire 450 meteorologists, hydrologists and radar technicians — House press release from Reps. Flood and Sorensen, 7 August 2025 ↑
- Aid only for homes "completely destroyed" — Government Executive, 7 May 2026 ↑
Republican
STATE AND LOCAL
The administration's case on disasters is not the Sharpie; it is a theory of who should respond. Executive Order 14239, March 2025: "State and local governments and individuals play a more active and significant role in national resilience and preparedness" 1. The argument is that the people closest to a flood or a fire know it best, and that a federal agency in Washington is a slower first responder than a county.
That is a real position, and it is being put into practice: the FEMA Review Council's recommendations this spring called for block grants to states and a strategic review of the agency's staff 2. On the day of the marker, in September 2019, the president asked about the loop said, "I don't know, I don't know, I don't know" 3. What happened to the forecasters since is on the other side.
Sources
- "State and local governments and individuals play a more active and significant role in national resilience and preparedness" — Executive Order 14239, 18 March 2025 — The White House ↑
- The FEMA Review Council recommended block grants, a two-to-three-year staff strategic review, and aid only for homes "completely destroyed" — Government Executive, 7 May 2026 ↑
- The Dorian forecast map extended into Alabama in black marker; asked about it: "I don't know, I don't know, I don't know" — CBS News, 4 September 2019 ↑
“It's the little loop that bothers me. The forecast map from August 29th, and then on September 4th there's this extra curve in black marker, reaching into Alabama. The forecast gave southeastern Alabama about a five percent chance of tropical-storm winds; the Birmingham office said Alabama would "NOT see any impacts." Two days later, an unsigned statement took his side. The next year the inspector general wrote it "did not further NOAA's or NWS's interests." Excuse me — I forgot my umbrella. The loop was drawn in 2019. Who's drawing the map now?”— Lou
“The Sharpie. September 2019, the official forecast map in the Oval Office, and there's a black loop drawn into Alabama. "I don't know, I don't know, I don't know." Then the weather agency was made to back him, and the Commerce Department's inspector general said the statement didn't serve the agency. Last year they found a better pen. They retired the count of billion-dollar disasters — "no updates beyond calendar year 2024." You don't have to redraw the storm if you stop keeping the map.”
“The president was simply being cautious about Alabama, and caution is what you want from a leader during hurricane season, and retiring the disaster count is caution too, since you can't be alarmed by a number no one publishes.”